Saratoga Horse Racing Picks for Friday, August 25, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Real Men Violin 0 0-1
11 11 Real Men Violin 10.00 1 2-1
16 16 Global Perspective 1.60 1.1 2-1
1 1 Radio Liberty 4.50 2.5 5-1
4 4 Feltrinelli 5.00 3.6 7-1
8 8 Veracruzin 8.00 4.3 8-1
3 3 Inherent Promise 10.00 4.4 8-1
9 9 Sheriff Joe 12.00 5.8 11-1
14 14 Spirit Prince 3.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Tireless 6.00 SCRATCH
2 2 The Hero Code 8.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Moonlight 3.50 SCRATCH
6 6 Zverev 6.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Fortune Seller 5.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Uncle Bo 10.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Buffoon (FR) 15.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Walley World 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Vax 2.50 1 2-1
5 5 Trust the Numbers 2.00 1.4 3-1
4 4 Our Rosie Diamonds 5.00 3.7 7-1
2 2 La Aguililla 6.00 4.8 9-1
8 8 Quick Power Nap 8.00 5.9 11-1
7 7 Goodbye Kyle 8.00 6.4 12-1
6 6 Mo Town Madison 12.00 6.7 13-1
1 1 Handle the Truth 20.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Smart N Fancy S.) – Smart N Fancy S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Bubble Rock 3.00 1 2-1
5 5 Roses for Debra 0.50 1.5 3-1
3 3 Train to Artemus 10.00 2.6 5-1
6 6 Talkin Tipsy 30.00 4 8-1
8 8 Bluefield 1.80 SCRATCH
1 1 Can’t Buy Love 15.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Self Isolation 1.40 SCRATCH
4 4 Poppy Flower 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Just Call Ray 0 0-1
6 6 Tommy Bee 5.00 1 2-1
5 5 Landbiscuit 3.00 1.8 3-1
2 2 High Tide 2.50 2.2 4-1
11 11 Truculent 4.00 4.2 8-1
13 13 Dust Devil 2.00 4.3 8-1
10 10 Just Call Ray 8.00 6.5 12-1
9 9 Styner 10.00 8.3 16-1
12 12 Datesfreedom 15.00 8.8 17-1
4 4 Klickitat 8.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Aruba 10.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Speedy Hans 8.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Microsecond 6.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Original 8.00 SCRATCH
14 14 H P Moon 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Joking Way 6.00 1 2-1
1 1 Prove Right 3.00 3 6-1
9 9 Dark Vector 4.00 3.1 6-1
8 8 Major Blue 10.00 3.4 6-1
10 10 Heldish 8.00 3.5 7-1
4 4 Street Swagg 10.00 4.9 9-1
3 3 Alternate Reality 8.00 4.9 9-1
7 7 Mr Bob 15.00 7.3 14-1
5 5 Thunderian 6.00 7.6 14-1
2 2 Warrior Richard 12.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Anchises 6.00 1 2-1
6 6 Fierceness 2.00 2.9 5-1
1 1 Air of Defiance 2.50 3.8 7-1
4 4 Wajda 5.00 4.3 8-1
5 5 Change of Command 8.00 5 10-1
3 3 Apollo Ten 8.00 5.2 10-1
8 8 Daily Grind 15.00 7.3 14-1
7 7 Billal 15.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Ontheonesandtwos 5.00 1 2-1
3 3 Headland 1.60 1.2 2-1
1 1 You Look Cold 4.00 2.7 5-1
6 6 Easy to Bless 20.00 2.7 5-1
5 5 Hydra 15.00 4.5 8-1
7 7 First to Act 8.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Repealing 6.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Unsung Melody 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Anatolian 3.00 1 2-1
11 12 She Caught My Eye 2.00 1.6 3-1
10 11 Peak Popularity 1.80 2.2 4-1
5 5 Out of Sight 15.00 2.3 4-1
6 6 Sweet Dutchess 3.50 3.8 7-1
12 13 Run Devil 12.00 5.3 10-1
7 7 Modern Love 12.00 5.8 11-1
2 1 Embrace Me 20.00 6.3 12-1
9 10 Rhombique 10.00 SCRATCH
8 9 Lullaby Land 8.00 SCRATCH
3 2 Any Port 12.00 SCRATCH
1 3 Avenue Niel (IRE) 2.00 SCRATCH
1A 8 Olkovskha (FR) 2.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Personal Ensign S.) – Personal Ensign S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Idiomatic 0 0-1
Clairiere 0 0-1
1 1 Idiomatic 3.00 1 2-1
5 5 Nest 0.80 1.7 3-1
3 3 Secret Oath 8.00 1.8 3-1
6 6 Clairiere 2.50 3.1 6-1
4 4 Sixtythreecaliber 15.00 3.8 7-1
2 2 Malloy 50.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Risk Free 8.00 1 2-1
12 12 White Chocolate 2.50 2.5 5-1
7 7 Going the Distance 15.00 3.2 6-1
11 11 Millie Jean 15.00 3.5 7-1
1 1 Frau Diablo 10.00 3.6 7-1
6 6 Bourbon and Honey 8.00 4.2 8-1
10 10 Arrasou 4.50 4.5 9-1
3 3 Material Witness 20.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Riviere 5.00 SCRATCH
8 8 We Shall See 15.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Cowichan (IRE) 3.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Oolong Hai (IRE) 6.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.