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Saratoga Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, September 3, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Weigh the Risks 2.50 1 2-1
7 7 Appellate 3.50 3.1 6-1
10 10 Ice Cold 20.00 4 8-1
3 3 Most of All 15.00 4.4 8-1
5 5 Later Darling 4.50 4.8 9-1
1 1 Stents and Statins (GB) 10.00 5 9-1
2 2 Justdeny 15.00 5.4 10-1
9 9 Sensing Flatter 6.00 6 11-1
4 4 Progeny 12.00 6.1 12-1
6 6 Philanthropy 10.00 6.3 12-1
11 11 Ba Dee Yah 20.00 SCRATCH
1A 12 Way to Be Marie 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Mim 1.80 1 2-1
3 3 Follow the Fed 12.00 2.7 5-1
4 4 Bon Adieu 3.50 2.7 5-1
7 7 Sweet Liberty 8.00 3.2 6-1
2 2 Marley’s Ghost 8.00 4.1 8-1
8 8 Northway 10.00 4.5 8-1
10 10 Embraceable Gal 20.00 5 9-1
5 5 Scherzer 6.00 6.1 12-1
6 6 Lady Fortuna 20.00 7.1 13-1
1 1 Montauk Mystique 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 6 Film Star 1.80 1 2-1
4 5 Olympic Dreams 2.00 2.1 4-1
1A 2 Moore’s Law 5.00 2.2 4-1
7 8 Saqeel 6.00 2.5 5-1
3 4 The Prince’s Spur 8.00 3.9 7-1
1 1 Leading Contender 5.00 5.4 10-1
6 7 Implementation 10.00 SCRATCH
2 3 Certified Loverboy 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Rally Squirrel 6.00 1 2-1
9 10 Beaver Hat 10.00 1.4 3-1
2 1 Silver Dust 10.00 1.8 3-1
7 7 Magnolia Midnight 1.40 3.2 6-1
1 3 Durkin’s Call 4.50 3.9 7-1
6 6 Hammerin Aamer 8.00 7.2 14-1
1A 8 Invisible War 4.50 7.9 15-1
8 9 Bossmakinbossmoves 8.00 9.3 18-1
4 4 Hang Tight 20.00 9.7 18-1
3 2 Sprinklehead 12.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 8 Uncle Eddie 12.00 1 2-1
1 9 Notafraidtocharge 10.00 5 10-1
8 7 Khanate 4.50 5.4 10-1
7 6 My Man Woody 20.00 5.6 11-1
2 1 Cowes 3.50 6.2 12-1
3 2 Nano Man 10.00 6.3 12-1
10 10 Piccata Prince 2.50 6.6 13-1
6 5 Magic Beach 6.00 7.1 13-1
11 11 Sugar It’s Eli 20.00 7.1 13-1
5 4 Attrayant 20.00 7.6 14-1
12 12 Run Jalen Run 8.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Mucho de La Mancha 20.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Happy Baytown 12.00 SCRATCH
1A 16 King Freud 10.00 SCRATCH
4 3 Three Point Strut 8.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Yaqui Valley 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Genetics 3.00 1 2-1
7 7 Snow Dance 8.00 3.5 7-1
6 6 Extremely Gruntled 15.00 5.9 11-1
3 3 Dancing Dean 15.00 6.2 12-1
10 10 Scalable 6.00 6.8 13-1
5 5 Nikitis 5.00 7.5 14-1
4 4 Alpine Princess 4.00 8.4 16-1
8 8 Noriskit Nobiscuit 15.00 8.7 16-1
1 1 Social Affair 20.00 9.1 17-1
9 9 Caitlinhergrtness 5.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 6 Lord Flintshire 8.00 1 2-1
4 4 Empire Attraction 4.50 1.9 4-1
1A 5 Jarreau 3.00 2.3 4-1
3 2 Born a Gambler 8.00 2.7 5-1
7 8 Indian Mischief 10.00 3.2 6-1
9 10 Harry Hood 3.50 3.4 6-1
2 1 Ski Patrol 3.50 5.6 10-1
8 9 Addicted to You 30.00 SCRATCH
1 3 Watasha 3.00 SCRATCH
11 12 Achilles Heel 6.00 SCRATCH
10 11 Memphis 4.00 SCRATCH
6 7 Provision 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Dontmesswithtess 2.50 1 2-1
2B 13 Fast Kimmie 8.00 1.4 3-1
6 4 Except Temptation 6.00 2.1 4-1
5 3 Mouly 12.00 2.2 4-1
12 12 Anileate 15.00 2.4 5-1
8 7 Diamond Status 5.00 2.5 5-1
11 11 Can’t Fool Me 12.00 2.8 5-1
1 5 River Tay (IRE) 8.00 2.9 5-1
4 2 Up Her Sleeve 20.00 2.9 5-1
2 8 Miscreant 8.00 4.6 9-1
7 6 Miss Kristy 10.00 4.7 9-1
3 1 Sister Nell 20.00 4.9 9-1
9 9 Proud Foot 10.00 SCRATCH
13 15 Yogi 8.00 SCRATCH
14 16 Thestral 5.00 SCRATCH
1A 14 From Hello 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Spinaway S.) – Spinaway S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Ways and Means 0 0-1
Lady Moscato 0 0-1
9 9 Brightwork 2.50 1 2-1
7 7 Wonder Ride 12.00 1.5 3-1
3 3 Sugar Hi 6.00 2.3 4-1
6 6 Alys Beach 15.00 2.9 6-1
2 2 Lady Moscato 20.00 3.5 7-1
8 8 Ways and Means 1.40 3.7 7-1
4 4 Closing Act 20.00 4.4 8-1
10 10 Lemorian 15.00 5.3 10-1
1 1 Miz Sense 15.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Becky’s Joker 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Whiskey Lullaby 4.50 1 2-1
7 7 Rosy Tomorrows 6.00 1.6 3-1
8 8 Addressable Market (IRE) 3.50 2.5 5-1
1 1 Jet City Woman 4.00 2.7 5-1
10 10 Belleshazza 12.00 2.8 5-1
4 4 Exotic Cat 30.00 4 7-1
6 6 Keep It Sexy 8.00 5.1 10-1
14 14 Solevo Spritz 30.00 5.2 10-1
13 13 Better Justice 4.50 6.2 12-1
9 9 Dark Pool 5.00 6.7 13-1
11 11 So Are You 50.00 6.9 13-1
2 2 Avalanche Is Comin 50.00 7.8 15-1
15 15 Duke Girls 2.50 SCRATCH
12 12 Lakeside Getaway 12.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Tooshay 30.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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