Del Mar Horse Racing Picks for Monday, September 4, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Always On Cay 2.50 1 2-1
6 6 Sabres 5.00 3.1 6-1
5 5 Screaming Virginia 6.00 3.3 6-1
1 1 Thompson 4.00 3.7 7-1
7 7 Right in Front 12.00 4.8 9-1
4 4 Crone Zone 12.00 5 10-1
2 2 Kamaina Cruiser 8.00 6.1 12-1
8 8 Tapalo 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Upright 10.00 1 2-1
12 12 Bendettijoe 2.50 1.5 3-1
9 9 Snapp Daddy 6.00 1.8 3-1
4 4 Eagles Landing 20.00 1.8 3-1
11 11 American Livin 20.00 2.9 6-1
5 5 Chaos Reigns 6.00 3.8 7-1
10 10 Chippewa Bud 12.00 3.8 7-1
3 3 Diamonds Preferred 30.00 4.2 8-1
2 2 Confucius 3.00 4.2 8-1
7 7 Charlie Lightning 10.00 4.9 9-1
6 6 Mandela Effect 50.00 7 13-1
1 1 Ghost of Midnight 8.00 7.7 14-1
13 98 Zafiro Anejo 0.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
City Legend 0 0-1
7 7 Papale 2.00 1 2-1
5 5 Far West 6.00 1.3 2-1
8 8 Stotland 2.50 1.7 3-1
4 4 City Legend 8.00 6.1 11-1
1 1 Secret Touch 10.00 6.1 12-1
2 2 Afternoon Heat 20.00 6.9 13-1
6 6 Warrens Candy Man 6.00 7.5 14-1
3 3 Divine Feminine 6.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
12 12 Austonian 4.00 1 2-1
7 7 Heartbreak Kid 6.00 1.8 3-1
1 1 My Brother Mike 12.00 2.1 4-1
5 5 Commissioner H 20.00 3.5 7-1
11 11 South Coast Route 3.00 3.6 7-1
10 10 Emerald Union 10.00 3.8 7-1
13 13 Reef City 6.00 4 8-1
3 3 Nyquiler 20.00 4.8 9-1
4 4 Non Toxic 20.00 5.2 10-1
2 2 King Heat 30.00 5.2 10-1
9 9 I Got a Guy 12.00 6.9 13-1
6 6 Sea Breeze Boy 8.00 7.4 14-1
8 8 Mt. Zeror 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Tranquility Lake S.) – Tranquility Lake S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Fun to Dream 0.80 1 2-1
4 4 Yuki (CHI) 3.50 2.6 5-1
3 3 Micro Share 2.50 3.1 6-1
6 6 Smoothlikebuttah 6.00 3.6 7-1
2 2 Una Chiquitita (CHI) 15.00 3.9 7-1
1 1 Trouville 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Palagio 5.00 1 2-1
1 1 Mucino 3.00 1.5 3-1
2 2 Dazzlemesilver 5.00 2.2 4-1
4 4 Captain Choochies 12.00 2.3 4-1
5 5 Arrowthegreat 5.00 3.2 6-1
3 3 Flat On 8.00 3.6 7-1
8 8 Excel Calculator 2.50 4.1 8-1
6 6 Precision Strike 20.00 4.4 8-1
9 9 Mauna Kea Bound 20.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Katerini 3.00 1 2-1
1 1 De Joria 5.00 2.5 5-1
11 11 Downburst 5.00 3.9 7-1
3 3 Blonde Bombshell 15.00 4.7 9-1
5 5 Violet Storm 4.00 6.5 12-1
9 9 Sareeha (IRE) 4.00 7.1 13-1
7 7 Aspirational 30.00 7.3 14-1
10 10 Ipanema Princess (IRE) 6.00 7.3 14-1
8 8 Point and Shoot 20.00 10 19-1
6 6 Roubaix 30.00 10.4 20-1
4 4 Track Queen 50.00 11 21-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Last Call Paul 4.00 1 2-1
9 9 Mr. Chivas 6.00 2.2 4-1
7 7 Buraq’s Reflection 12.00 3.3 6-1
3 3 Special Club 6.00 3.9 7-1
11 10 Stay On the Fence 8.00 4.2 8-1
8 8 Stolen Treasure 8.00 4.4 8-1
2 2 Helen’s Sun 3.50 4.6 9-1
1 1 Potito 4.00 4.7 9-1
4 4 Immelmann 20.00 4.8 9-1
5 5 Catmansue 10.00 7.4 14-1
10 98 Magic Spoon 0.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 El Oro (FR) 10.00 1 2-1
3 3 X J Rascal (IRE) 3.50 1.5 3-1
8 8 Legislator 2.50 1.7 3-1
6 6 For A Laugh (IRE) 6.00 1.9 4-1
2 2 Horace Mann 5.00 3.2 6-1
7 7 Act Three 12.00 3.5 7-1
4 4 Watsonville 6.00 4.6 9-1
5 5 El Perfecto 20.00 7.9 15-1
9 9 Rutherford 6.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Generous Portion S.) – Generous Portion S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Putt for Dough 6.00 1 2-1
1 1 Crazy Hot 1.60 1.9 4-1
6 6 Prancingthruparis 6.00 4.6 9-1
2 2 Blevys Tiger 2.50 5.5 10-1
7 7 Fly a Fantasy 5.00 5.8 11-1
5 5 Talent for Gold 12.00 6.2 12-1
3 3 Unified A. P. 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 11 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 3 Tiz Plus 2.50 1 2-1
6 4 Give Me the Lute 3.00 2.4 5-1
10 8 Light Fury 6.00 5.3 10-1
1 1 Liberal (IRE) 6.00 5.5 10-1
11 9 Majestic Eagle 6.00 5.5 10-1
2 2 Taishan 6.00 5.6 11-1
7 5 Soulmate 12.00 6.3 12-1
12 10 Brother Reid 12.00 7.1 13-1
8 6 Brazenly 20.00 7.7 15-1
13 98 Charles Chrome 0.00 SCRATCH
9 7 Fast Per Se 50.00 SCRATCH
3 98 Heir (FR) 0.00 SCRATCH
4 98 Hurricane Cloud (GB) 0.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.