Belmont At The Big A Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, September 21, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Perliano 4.50 1 2-1
4 4 Mischief Joke 1.20 2.4 5-1
7 7 Officer Derick 10.00 3.5 7-1
6 6 Mama’s Dream 2.00 4 8-1
1 1 Fratellino 12.00 5.3 10-1
2 2 Lao Way 10.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Wonder Wonderland 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 5 Sheriff Bianco 4.50 1 2-1
3 4 Best Actor 2.00 1.6 3-1
2 3 Baby Yoda 6.00 2.4 4-1
5 6 Kinetic Sky 3.50 2.8 5-1
1A 2 Bold Endeavor 3.00 4.6 9-1
6 7 Uncle Moonlight 6.00 5 10-1
1 1 Business Model 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Mystic Night 2.50 1 2-1
6 6 Cut the Cord 5.00 2.9 5-1
5 5 Lookin At Roses 2.00 3.4 7-1
1 1 Portos 5.00 5 9-1
4 4 Classic Mark 4.00 5.7 11-1
3 3 Higher Quality 10.00 6.1 11-1
2 2 Datesfreedom 30.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Winfromwithin 4.00 1 2-1
2 2 Kuramata (IRE) 2.50 1.6 3-1
4 4 Duke of Hazzard (FR) 3.00 2.6 5-1
3 3 Tut’s Revenge 12.00 3.3 6-1
1 1 Cazadero 5.00 3.5 7-1
7 8 Call Me Harry 4.50 3.7 7-1
5 5 Main Event 8.00 4.7 9-1
1A 7 Mid Day Image 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Queen of the Mud (IRE) 0 0-1
3 3 Material Witness 3.50 1 2-1
7 7 Oolong Hai (IRE) 6.00 2.5 5-1
5 5 Nyxed 12.00 4 8-1
12 12 Millie Jean 15.00 5.2 10-1
10 10 Fancy Stax 20.00 5.7 11-1
1 1 Madaket’s Arrow 4.50 5.8 11-1
6 6 Queen of the Mud (IRE) 10.00 6.1 12-1
11 11 Catskill Humor 10.00 6.2 12-1
9 9 Isola (IRE) 8.00 7 13-1
2 2 Seawitch 30.00 7.1 13-1
4 4 You Only Live Once 6.00 7.7 15-1
8 8 Dreaming of Mo 12.00 12 23-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Rocco Strong 8.00 1 2-1
1A 11 Two Thirty Five 5.00 1.5 3-1
9 10 Just Call Ray 6.00 1.9 4-1
4 4 Six Percent 3.00 2.7 5-1
1 1 My Friends Beer 5.00 3 6-1
8 9 Invisible War 12.00 3.6 7-1
10 12 Life and Light 30.00 4.5 8-1
7 7 Burgee 12.00 4.8 9-1
6 6 Handsome Cat 10.00 6.7 13-1
2B 8 Forty Two Ace 8.00 6.8 13-1
5 5 Durkin’s Call 6.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Salto de Tigre 4.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Exact Estimate 4.00 1 2-1
4 4 Daunt 3.50 1.5 3-1
2 2 Tide of the Sea 10.00 2.2 4-1
3 3 Good Skate 8.00 3.4 6-1
8 8 Francesco Clemente (IRE) 1.60 3.4 6-1
5 5 Freedom Trail 6.00 4.2 8-1
6 6 Ronstadt 15.00 4.9 9-1
9 9 Alternate Reality 50.00 7.3 14-1
7 7 Tiz a Giant 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Big Engine 6.00 1 2-1
4 4 Mariachi 3.50 1.4 3-1
5 5 Perfect Munnings 2.50 1.4 3-1
9 9 Brew Pub 8.00 2.4 5-1
7 7 Zeebear 10.00 3.3 6-1
6 6 Radio Red 4.50 4.8 9-1
2 2 D’ont Lose Cruz 10.00 5.2 10-1
1 1 Horn of Plenty 20.00 6 11-1
3 3 Quick Return 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Screw Loose 3.50 1 2-1
4 4 Fast Study 10.00 1.4 3-1
12 12 Atlanta’s Acuna 5.00 2 4-1
9 9 Zapruder 4.00 3.1 6-1
10 10 Impazible Prince 8.00 3.2 6-1
11 11 Myles 5.00 3.4 6-1
8 8 A Lister 50.00 3.5 7-1
6 6 Thatsmyboxer 15.00 5 9-1
2 2 Charming Jim 15.00 7.5 14-1
1 1 Somama Beach 50.00 8.6 16-1
7 7 Utamaro 8.00 8.9 17-1
5 5 Perfect Outcome 20.00 10.1 19-1
15 15 Aula 4.50 SCRATCH
16 16 Academy Choice 12.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Hari 8.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Just for Luck 6.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.