Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, September 21, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Whatta World 2.50 1 2-1
7 7 End of Innocence 12.00 4.2 8-1
2 2 Scrupulous 2.00 4.8 9-1
8 8 Summer Dance 10.00 6.2 12-1
9 9 No Violence 5.00 7.5 14-1
5 5 Interception 12.00 8.1 15-1
4 4 Loveya Loveya More 8.00 8.5 16-1
6 6 Hush It Honey 10.00 8.8 17-1
1 1 Bette Davis 15.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Astronomico 2.00 1 2-1
6 6 Tiz My Hero 5.00 1.1 2-1
9 9 Lead Foot 8.00 2.6 5-1
8 8 Moneyshot 5.00 3.4 6-1
4 4 Skypass 6.00 4.5 9-1
3 3 Hope Joe’s Right 6.00 4.9 9-1
1 1 Wauhatchie 15.00 6 11-1
2 2 Don’t Stop 20.00 6.7 13-1
7 7 Spin the Boulevard 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Mugen 3.00 1 2-1
6 6 Controlled Temper 3.50 1.4 3-1
1 1 Candy Landy 6.00 2.4 5-1
3 3 Babe in the Woods 20.00 2.4 5-1
2 2 Floored 12.00 2.7 5-1
9 9 Fundamentally 5.00 3 6-1
11 11 Little Miss Priss 12.00 3.3 6-1
5 5 West Omaha 6.00 4.5 8-1
8 8 Class Act 10.00 6.3 12-1
4 4 Austin Traffic 15.00 6.5 12-1
7 7 Corkage Fee 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Mytown Myrules 3.00 1 2-1
6 6 Ain’t Broke 2.50 1.2 2-1
1 1 Such Sounds 4.00 2.5 5-1
2 2 Sandra D 8.00 2.7 5-1
3 3 Sad Cafe 12.00 3.5 7-1
7 7 Steel Racer 10.00 4.2 8-1
8 8 Thestral 8.00 5.9 11-1
5 5 I Feel the Need 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Gin Gin 3.00 1 2-1
11 11 Platinum Minit 8.00 2.6 5-1
12 12 Cararra 6.00 3.1 6-1
6 6 America’s Vow 20.00 4.2 8-1
4 4 Perfect Shot 4.00 8.7 16-1
2 2 Dazzlin’ Dictator 15.00 9.6 18-1
5 5 Magic Gathering 10.00 9.9 19-1
3 3 Amy Z 8.00 10.7 20-1
1 1 Miss Harmonic 15.00 10.9 21-1
8 8 Flight to Paris 8.00 11.5 22-1
10 10 Montclair Road 10.00 11.9 22-1
7 7 Nandina 20.00 12 23-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Cancel This 6.00 1 2-1
3 3 Pistol 4.50 1 2-1
8 8 Little Mombo 8.00 1.6 3-1
10 10 High Class 4.00 3.1 6-1
12 12 Need Some Money 15.00 3.3 6-1
2 2 Ervadean 20.00 3.4 6-1
4 4 Ten Rings 20.00 3.4 6-1
1 1 Huntress for Hire 3.50 3.8 7-1
6 6 Secret Statement 20.00 4 8-1
5 5 In Color 20.00 4.6 9-1
11 11 The Great Maybe 4.50 4.7 9-1
9 9 Varmlander 20.00 6.2 12-1
13 13 Lakeside Music 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Santos Dumont 20.00 1 2-1
5 5 Promise Keeper 4.00 1.6 3-1
3 3 Decision Maker 4.50 3.4 6-1
4 4 Ethical Judgement 10.00 3.7 7-1
13 13 Speed Bias 2.50 4 8-1
9 9 Masqueparade 5.00 4.1 8-1
11 11 Galt 6.00 5.1 10-1
10 10 King’s Ovation 6.00 5.1 10-1
1 1 Mr. Big News 20.00 6.2 12-1
7 7 Gasoline 6.00 7.2 14-1
8 8 Group Eighteen 15.00 7.7 14-1
12 12 Roman Centurian 12.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Protonic Power 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Concerted 3.50 1 2-1
10 10 Create Trouble 5.00 2.1 4-1
3 3 Mo Fight 3.00 2.4 4-1
8 8 Single Dot Yaht 8.00 3 6-1
12 12 Archie the Giza 15.00 3.4 6-1
6 6 Hero’s Medal 8.00 3.5 7-1
5 5 Spielman 15.00 4.3 8-1
4 4 Showdown King 12.00 5 10-1
2 2 Desert Wolf 20.00 5.2 10-1
1 1 Sahalat 6.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Perfect Upstart 20.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Mo Scat 20.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Bubba Can Dance 30.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.