Woodbine Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, September 21, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Speedy Bubbles 6.00 1 2-1
2 2 My Assistant 2.50 3.9 7-1
1 1 Kaloma 10.00 5 9-1
4 4 Souper Cop 8.00 5.8 11-1
5 5 Sweeping Passion 3.00 6.4 12-1
7 7 Tatoosonmysoul 12.00 7.8 15-1
3 3 Classicalcrossover 4.00 7.9 15-1
8 8 Pola Star 8.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Roses Are Free 3.00 1 2-1
4 4 Fedaline 2.50 1 2-1
1 1 Krypto Gains 8.00 1.5 3-1
3 3 Want to Go Dancing 3.50 2.4 4-1
5 5 Magnetize 10.00 4.6 9-1
6 6 Gentle Seas 15.00 5.4 10-1
8 8 Sake and Sushi 20.00 5.6 10-1
9 9 Lulu’s Lullaby 6.00 6.1 12-1
7 7 Classic Glory 20.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Why Em Sea Ay 3.00 1 2-1
2 2 Crevalle d’Oro 2.00 1.3 2-1
1 1 Quality Presence 6.00 2.3 4-1
3 3 Emerance 4.00 3.2 6-1
9 9 Bravo Kate 10.00 4.7 9-1
5 5 More Money Hunny 12.00 5.4 10-1
8 8 Inittowinit 20.00 6.8 13-1
4 4 Candid Candace 8.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Cozy Curlin Kitten 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Anselmo 8.00 1 2-1
3 3 Bet N Win 4.00 3.1 6-1
2 2 Nikki Noots 2.50 4.9 9-1
9 9 Stronger Together 6.00 5.2 10-1
7 7 Coach Abernathy 12.00 5.3 10-1
5 5 Glenholme 15.00 5.8 11-1
8 8 Good Soldier 3.00 6.5 12-1
4 4 Defogger 20.00 7 13-1
6 6 Perfect Play 8.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Optional Claiming) – Maiden Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Novel 2.50 1 2-1
5 5 Saucy Name 2.00 1.1 2-1
6 6 Powaqa 6.00 2.4 5-1
4 4 Blue Tango 8.00 3.6 7-1
1 1 Texensis 20.00 3.8 7-1
3 3 Red Eleanor 10.00 3.8 7-1
7 7 Twisting Pistons 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Lake Shore Drive 2.50 1 2-1
8 8 Gungi 8.00 3.3 6-1
3 3 Wild Conversation 8.00 3.9 7-1
7 7 Unexpected Outcome (IRE) 3.00 4 8-1
6 6 Lucys Child 6.00 4.3 8-1
5 5 Stubborn Streak 20.00 4.3 8-1
4 4 Snookered 4.00 5.6 11-1
2 2 Smart Coverage 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Optional Claiming) – Starter Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Rocket Joe Copper 1.80 1 2-1
7 7 Native Prince 6.00 2.4 4-1
3 3 Reliability 3.50 2.5 5-1
5 5 Timeskip 8.00 3.2 6-1
6 6 Coleyville 2.50 3.9 7-1
2 2 First Spring 20.00 5.2 10-1
1 1 Hit the Point 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Castleton 6.00 1 2-1
6 6 Miss Moe 3.00 1.6 3-1
5 5 Taylormoon 2.50 2.2 4-1
4 4 Alcom’soutinthwash 8.00 3.4 6-1
1 1 Hard Rock Warrior 4.00 5.6 11-1
9 9 Smart Irene 20.00 5.6 11-1
3 3 Electric Lightning 12.00 6 11-1
8 8 Bridge to Nowhere 10.00 6.3 12-1
7 7 Blackmarsh 20.00 9 17-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.