Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, September 28, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Malibu Smart 3.50 1 2-1
1 1 Big Dig 2.50 2.3 4-1
2 2 Mikita 4.00 3 6-1
4 4 Requestforproposal 10.00 3.6 7-1
6 6 Catherine Blaze 12.00 3.6 7-1
3 3 Proud Performer 20.00 4.6 9-1
7 7 Salsalita Verde 1.80 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Arden’s Assault 5.00 1 2-1
1 1 Athenais 2.50 3.6 7-1
7 7 Fast Gal 6.00 3.9 7-1
5 5 Jackie’s Spirit 2.00 4.3 8-1
2 2 Summer of Mischief 4.00 4.4 8-1
3 3 Floris 10.00 5.2 10-1
6 6 Mazoku 15.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Vitaemi 3.00 1 2-1
6 6 Kloepatra 15.00 2.5 5-1
3 3 Hashtag Winner 2.50 3.1 6-1
1 1 Brittle and Yoo 6.00 3.4 6-1
4 4 Zing 10.00 3.8 7-1
5 5 Guana Cay 1.40 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
15 15 Neom Beach 2.00 1 2-1
8 8 Miss Pearl Hart 12.00 1.2 2-1
13 13 Toasted Roll 5.00 4.1 8-1
7 7 Big Dreamer 4.00 4.6 9-1
10 10 Smiling Ellie 6.00 5.2 10-1
5 5 Field Lass 6.00 7.2 14-1
11 11 Save the Mischief 15.00 8 15-1
4 4 Innocent Nyght 10.00 8.9 17-1
9 9 Adrasteia 30.00 9.1 17-1
1 1 Golden Storm 15.00 9.5 18-1
3 3 Legal Deceiver 12.00 9.6 18-1
2 2 Walk Street 12.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Maui Mistress 20.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Silver Majesty 10.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Baraye 2.50 SCRATCH
16 16 Destiny Star 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Rivalry 1.60 1 2-1
1 1 Mount Craig 1.80 2.9 5-1
4 4 Harbour Bridge 4.00 4 8-1
2 2 Fast Chad 10.00 5.5 10-1
3 3 Tiz Wicked Strong 8.00 5.5 10-1
5 5 Ice Time 10.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Golden Flash 3.50 1 2-1
3 3 Washington’s Union 4.50 1.7 3-1
6 6 Tricolour 4.00 1.8 3-1
7 7 Go Cats 4.00 2.5 5-1
5 5 Silver Raleigh 8.00 3.9 7-1
2 2 Exemplified 10.00 6.3 12-1
1 1 Curlins Incharge 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Dash Attack 2.00 1 2-1
4 4 Kittansett 8.00 1.1 2-1
6 6 Twilight Blue 2.50 1.2 2-1
1 1 King Fury 4.00 2.6 5-1
2 2 Notary 10.00 2.8 5-1
3 3 Injunction 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Idratherbeblessed 8.00 1 2-1
10 10 He’s Got Swagger 12.00 4.1 8-1
4 4 Devil’s Harvest 30.00 7.5 14-1
14 14 The Prince’s Spur 5.00 7.9 15-1
11 11 Just a Photo 30.00 8.1 15-1
6 6 Maasai Warrior 30.00 8.5 16-1
5 5 Tulchan 10.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Hilliard 4.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Swore 2.00 SCRATCH
9 9 King Curlin 10.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Always Above 30.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Clever Thought 3.50 SCRATCH
3 3 Our Dream Rye’d 20.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Irish Aces 20.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.