Belmont At The Big A Horse Racing Picks for Friday, September 29, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Bustino Santino 5.00 1 2-1
3 3 Ky Thirty Won 4.00 1.3 2-1
7 7 Okaloosa 3.50 2.6 5-1
6 6 Scaramanga 10.00 2.7 5-1
2 2 Z Dancer 8.00 3.4 6-1
11 11 Prince of Truth 8.00 3.8 7-1
12 12 Vaunted 4.00 5 9-1
4 4 Scherzando 4.00 5.1 10-1
8 8 Whiskey and Wine 6.00 8.6 16-1
1 1 Egyptian Quest 8.00 9.3 18-1
10 10 Friday I’m in Love 8.00 11.3 21-1
5 5 Proud Alumnus 50.00 12 23-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Drake’s Passage 1.20 1 2-1
6 6 Paddington 4.00 4.1 8-1
1 1 Suerte 8.00 4.8 9-1
2 2 Mistical Curlin 3.00 4.9 9-1
5 5 Signator 4.50 4.9 9-1
3 3 Complete Agenda 12.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Souper Catch 6.00 1 2-1
5 5 Hammerin Aamer 8.00 4.3 8-1
3 3 Cool Quartet 2.50 5.4 10-1
1 1 Sprinklehead 5.00 5.7 11-1
7 7 Caerus 8.00 5.8 11-1
10 10 Dontbelate 4.50 5.8 11-1
4 4 Grumps Little Tots 12.00 6.3 12-1
6 6 Pit Boss 8.00 7.7 15-1
8 8 Hang Tight 15.00 9.8 19-1
2 2 Mount Travers 30.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Diamond Hands 2.00 1 2-1
4 4 Expand the Map (IRE) 3.00 6.1 12-1
6 6 Swoop to Finish 6.00 7.7 15-1
5 5 Lisa’s Vision 8.00 7.9 15-1
1A 11 Portage 15.00 7.9 15-1
9 9 She Caught My Eye 5.00 8.5 16-1
7 7 Alluring Angel (GB) 3.50 9.6 18-1
3 3 Royal Dame 10.00 9.8 18-1
1 2 Poet’s Woods 15.00 10.4 20-1
2 1 Theodora Grace 15.00 10.8 20-1
10 10 Cupid’s Heart 1.60 11 21-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Ashley T. Cole S.) – Ashley T. Cole S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Born Dancer 20.00 1 2-1
2 2 Spirit of St Louis 1.60 1.2 2-1
6 6 Jerry the Nipper 3.50 1.8 3-1
4 4 City Man 1.00 1.9 3-1
5 5 Barrage 12.00 4 8-1
7 7 Un Ojo 4.00 4.5 8-1
8 8 Bankit 1.80 7.5 14-1
1 1 Kingdom On Paws 30.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Enlighten 4.50 1 2-1
3 3 Smooth Player 15.00 2.9 5-1
4 4 Hunt Ball 3.50 3.4 6-1
10 10 Drum Roll Please 2.50 3.8 7-1
1 1 Hamilton’s Way 20.00 4.2 8-1
9 9 Unique Insight 6.00 5.3 10-1
8 8 Houlton 12.00 5.8 11-1
6 6 Digital Ops 8.00 7.4 14-1
2 2 Golden Plate 12.00 9 17-1
7 7 Pentathlon 15.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Mariah’s Fortune 3.50 1 2-1
4 4 Suspended Campaign 3.00 1.9 4-1
6 6 Trade Secret 30.00 2 4-1
1 1 Vallarand 12.00 4.7 9-1
9 9 Linny Kate 3.50 5 9-1
3 3 Its Cold in Dehere 4.50 5.3 10-1
7 7 Alpine Queen 6.00 6.2 12-1
2 2 Game Theory 12.00 7 13-1
5 5 Wait a Minute 15.00 8.3 16-1
8 8 Synonymous 30.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 3 Ortus 2.00 1 2-1
2 1 Majestic Johnson 12.00 3.2 6-1
15 16 Newport Bridge 2.50 5.9 11-1
6 5 Icy Flavor 3.00 7.8 15-1
1A 14 City Mischief 1.80 9.9 19-1
1 6 Image of Quality 1.80 10.4 20-1
7 7 Kreesa 8.00 10.9 21-1
11 11 Factually Correct 10.00 11.2 21-1
10 10 Empire Sky 8.00 11.3 21-1
8 8 Courageoous Oh La 10.00 12.2 23-1
13 13 Veterans Beach 12.00 12.6 24-1
12 12 Ten Cent Town 12.00 12.9 24-1
9 9 Dreampoint 20.00 12.9 24-1
14 15 Always Charming 3.00 15.2 29-1
3 2 The Cobbler 30.00 15.4 29-1
5 4 War Smoke 8.00 16 30-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Obrigada 6.00 1 2-1
3 3 I’mhavingamoment 3.00 3.1 6-1
9 9 Mongolian Panther 4.50 4.4 8-1
6 6 Fancy Azteca 10.00 5.1 10-1
4 4 White Chocolate 4.00 5.1 10-1
2 2 Sa Foradada 6.00 5.3 10-1
1 1 Security Code 6.00 7.2 14-1
8 8 Adeliese’s Smile 12.00 8.4 16-1
7 7 Vallelujah 20.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Noble Damsel S.) – Noble Damsel S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Fluffy Socks 1.80 1 2-1
3 3 Miss Carol Ann (IRE) 10.00 3.1 6-1
2 2 Gina Romantica 2.00 3.1 6-1
6 6 Malavath (IRE) 10.00 4.5 9-1
5 5 Not So Close 6.00 6.1 12-1
9 9 Movie Moxy 2.50 6.5 12-1
4 4 Gerrymander 4.00 6.9 13-1
8 8 Venti Valentine 4.00 8 15-1
7 7 Sunset Louise 15.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Uncle Eddie 5.00 1 2-1
4 4 Remember the Name 3.50 3.1 6-1
1 1 Twentyeighttothree 12.00 3.5 7-1
10 10 Crown That Saint 5.00 3.9 7-1
9 9 Rudy Rudy Rudy 12.00 5.1 10-1
3 3 Badlands Ruler 6.00 5.3 10-1
7 7 Guanare 4.50 6.4 12-1
8 8 Always Dialed 20.00 7.2 14-1
2 2 Cowboy Luke 10.00 7.6 14-1
5 5 Winwood 8.00 10 19-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.