Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Friday, September 29, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Metronome 4.00 1 2-1
5 5 Point At You 20.00 2.6 5-1
7 7 Casino Boss 3.50 2.9 5-1
1 1 Different Flame 20.00 4 8-1
4 4 Smoothdini 8.00 4.1 8-1
10 10 Tapitboy 4.50 4.9 9-1
2 2 Who’s Snow Trouble 5.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Capo 10.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Master of Disguise 5.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Mr Big Stuff 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 After Five 2.50 1 2-1
3 3 Two Worlds 3.00 1.3 2-1
8 8 Herd Immunity 6.00 3.7 7-1
7 7 Khozan’s Success 10.00 4.8 9-1
4 4 Populist 5.00 5.1 10-1
5 5 Steinbeck 10.00 6.2 12-1
2 2 Santa Cruiser 3.50 6.5 12-1
6 6 Ferryboat 20.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Luna Moth 3.00 1 2-1
4 4 My Good Fortune 5.00 2.1 4-1
1 1 Lady With a Cause 4.00 2.2 4-1
6 6 Judy’s Ms. Officer 15.00 3.1 6-1
5 5 Pachanga Loca 2.50 4.3 8-1
2 2 Little Dixie 3.50 5.5 10-1
7 7 Magic Palace 10.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 King of the Palace 6.00 1 2-1
6 6 Spirit’s Mischief 3.00 6.8 13-1
11 11 Big Fig 5.00 7.8 15-1
9 9 Bye Bye Liam 8.00 7.8 15-1
2 2 Lightning Myqueen 15.00 8.3 16-1
1 1 Irish Moon 20.00 8.4 16-1
5 5 Norwich 4.50 8.7 16-1
4 4 Lomachenko 20.00 9 17-1
10 10 Numero Siete 5.00 9.4 18-1
12 12 Thezelenskyyfactor 12.00 9.6 18-1
3 3 Ceepeegee 15.00 9.8 19-1
8 8 Big Hungry 15.00 10.1 19-1
16 16 Thunder Ball 8.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Honky Tonk Highway 6.00 SCRATCH
14 14 King Bukele 30.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Runnin’ Rocket 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Tape to Tape 2.50 1 2-1
3 3 Friar Laurence 20.00 4.3 8-1
8 8 Samurai Prince 8.00 4.5 9-1
1 1 Emerald Express 5.00 4.6 9-1
6 6 Tee Burns 8.00 4.6 9-1
2 2 Upstriker 2.00 5 9-1
7 7 Senor Jobim 8.00 5.2 10-1
5 5 Flags Up 15.00 5.7 11-1
4 4 Don’t Wait Up 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Heartyconstitution 1.60 1 2-1
4 4 Soul of an Angel 5.00 3.6 7-1
6 6 Jungle Juice (IRE) 12.00 5 9-1
1 1 Bhoma 12.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Royal Take Charge 2.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Fannie and Freddie 8.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Miss New York 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Corner Kick 1.60 1 2-1
3 3 Street Jam 5.00 1.1 2-1
2 2 Promises to Dance 4.00 1.1 2-1
8 8 Story Hour 2.50 1.4 3-1
7 7 Margoinabubblebath 12.00 1.5 3-1
4 4 Little Sister Sue 15.00 1.5 3-1
6 6 Punchy Girl 15.00 5.3 10-1
1 1 Holiday Decision 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Gavea (GER) 0 0-1
10 10 Stairstep Toheaven 10.00 1 2-1
6 6 Easy Red 3.50 1.1 2-1
9 9 Gavea (GER) 4.00 1.7 3-1
5 5 Cat’s Cave 8.00 2 4-1
7 7 Mila Junes 12.00 2.9 5-1
4 4 April’s Diamante 5.00 3.1 6-1
1 1 Go Margie Go 10.00 4.5 8-1
8 8 Mo Fox Givin 10.00 5.5 10-1
3 3 Catholic Gal 4.50 6 11-1
2 2 Mo Sense 10.00 7.4 14-1
11 11 Peignoir 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Under Oath 4.00 1 2-1
8 8 Sky and Sand 5.00 2.6 5-1
5 5 W W Candy 12.00 2.9 5-1
1 1 Angkor 3.50 4.1 8-1
9 9 Osbourne 6.00 4.1 8-1
6 6 Mac Daddy Too 6.00 4.5 8-1
4 4 Broken Rib 8.00 4.8 9-1
7 7 Midnight Escape 30.00 4.8 9-1
11 11 Bourbon Heist 5.00 5.1 10-1
2 2 Call Me Midnight 30.00 6 11-1
10 10 Fan Club 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Conniving 3.00 1 2-1
7 7 Bourbon Boss 2.50 1.4 3-1
3 3 Anthonian 10.00 3.2 6-1
1 1 Lucky Jeremy 6.00 3.7 7-1
2 2 Wish Carefully 5.00 5.3 10-1
4 4 Dashman 8.00 5.8 11-1
9 9 Honor Marie 15.00 5.8 11-1
8 8 Run Jalen Run 10.00 5.9 11-1
6 6 Wistucky 12.00 5.9 11-1
10 10 Fear and Loathing 20.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.