Santa Anita Horse Racing Picks for Friday, September 29, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Give Me the Lute 2.50 1 2-1
1 1 Maven 4.00 1.1 2-1
7 7 Westward Look 5.00 5.2 10-1
3 3 Jamming Eddy 6.00 5.4 10-1
2 2 Subsidize 6.00 6.5 12-1
5 5 Inch 3.00 6.8 13-1
4 4 Margot’s Boy 8.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 American Lily 2.00 1 2-1
1 1 Poetica 2.50 3.5 7-1
5 5 Kristi’s Tiger 4.00 4.4 8-1
4 4 She’s Resilient 4.00 4.9 9-1
3 3 Essential Business 3.00 5 9-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Touchdown Kittle 2.50 1 2-1
1 1 Grand Tiger 2.00 1.9 4-1
7 7 Grazed 2.50 2 4-1
5 5 Man O Rose 4.00 4.5 8-1
4 4 Toppers Wager 20.00 5.2 10-1
3 3 Beyond Compare 15.00 6.4 12-1
6 6 Antibes 10.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 2 Like No Other 2.00 1 2-1
5 4 Sweet Hello 1.60 1 2-1
4 3 Miss Kaline 2.00 2.3 4-1
1 1 Aspirational 12.00 3.4 6-1
6 5 Point and Shoot 6.00 3.7 7-1
2 98 Magazine 0.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Last Call Paul 4.00 1 2-1
2 2 Potito 3.50 4.1 8-1
7 7 Immelmann 10.00 5.4 10-1
9 9 Nestucka 4.00 5.5 10-1
3 3 Billy Joe Shaver 5.00 7.4 14-1
5 5 Whiskey Rye 15.00 8 15-1
10 10 Don’t Hit Me Bash 10.00 8.2 15-1
1 1 High King 6.00 8.2 16-1
6 6 Fleet Brotato 15.00 9.1 17-1
8 8 Annan 15.00 9.2 17-1
11 11 Kiss for Lulu 15.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Just a Guess 6.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Fact Or Fiction 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Just Is 2.00 1 2-1
4 4 Rosie Ann Rules 3.50 2.4 5-1
3 3 Turquoise Bikini 12.00 2.7 5-1
2 2 Eltonsingsanother 2.50 2.7 5-1
6 6 Sahara Sue 12.00 3.9 7-1
7 7 Shes Just Fluffy 3.00 4.6 9-1
1 1 No Can Quit 15.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Thirty Four Coupe 5.00 1 2-1
10 10 Numero Dix (GB) 2.50 1.4 3-1
5 5 Developing the Way 8.00 2.8 5-1
3 3 Aurelian Man 12.00 3.5 7-1
6 6 Brother Reid 6.00 3.9 7-1
1 1 Workday 12.00 4.2 8-1
8 8 Bear Mountain 12.00 4.2 8-1
2 2 Themainprotagonist (IRE) 10.00 4.6 9-1
9 9 Road of Love 20.00 8.1 15-1
4 4 Lone Scout 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Chillingworth S.) – Chillingworth S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Eda 0.80 1 2-1
4 4 Elm Drive 3.00 2.2 4-1
1 1 Clearly Unhinged 4.00 2.8 5-1
7 7 Lady T 12.00 5.5 10-1
2 2 Home Cooking 12.00 6.4 12-1
3 3 Kirstenbosch 8.00 6.6 12-1
6 6 Violent Runner 30.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Belmont Bill 4.00 1 2-1
3 3 Quintecents 5.00 2.5 5-1
11 11 Captain Choochies 12.00 2.8 5-1
8 8 Chiefs Blanket 12.00 3.4 6-1
1 1 Crypto Man 6.00 4 8-1
9 9 Tokamak 12.00 4.2 8-1
2 2 Six Magpies (IRE) 4.00 4.3 8-1
10 10 Autoline (IRE) 3.50 5.5 10-1
7 7 Churchmeister 15.00 8.2 15-1
5 5 No Secret 30.00 9.1 17-1
12 12 Bolts Destiny 30.00 9.5 18-1
4 4 Gaelic Nation (IRE) 15.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.