Belmont At The Big A Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, September 30, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Alette d’Oro 6.00 1 2-1
11 11 Bells Tolling 5.00 5.7 11-1
6 6 Learning to Fly 8.00 6.3 12-1
5 5 Calling an Audible 12.00 6.7 13-1
13 13 Mia Nipotina 20.00 7.3 14-1
3 3 Dusk 2.50 7.4 14-1
4 4 Snarky 5.00 10.8 20-1
2 2 Valentine Gift 10.00 12 23-1
15 15 Cara’s Girl 10.00 12.5 24-1
10 10 City Blocks 6.00 13 25-1
9 9 Handle On You 10.00 13.5 25-1
1 1 Lu’s Redemption 8.00 13.5 25-1
16 16 Call Her Bluff 2.00 13.5 26-1
14 14 Lil’ Hayadoin 6.00 14.5 27-1
12 12 Realta 15.00 15.2 29-1
8 8 Baroness Bourbon 15.00 16 30-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Skip the Line 10.00 1 2-1
9 9 States United 12.00 3.1 6-1
5 5 Livehappy 20.00 6.4 12-1
1 1 Gum Island 12.00 6.8 13-1
3 3 Maximillions Dream 12.00 7.8 15-1
2 2 Electric Eel 15.00 8.7 16-1
12 12 Sea Streak 2.50 10.3 20-1
6 6 Change of Command 3.00 10.8 20-1
7 7 Thunderslam 30.00 11.2 21-1
8 8 Wajda 8.00 11.9 23-1
10 10 Reasoned Analysis 8.00 12.5 24-1
13 13 Trailing Monster 10.00 12.7 24-1
4 4 Rathmore 20.00 13 25-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Vosburgh S.) – Vosburgh S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Great Navigator 20.00 1 2-1
6 6 Cody’s Wish 0.20 3.1 6-1
5 5 High Oak 12.00 4.3 8-1
4 4 Accretive 4.50 4.9 9-1
3 3 Sheriff Bianco 10.00 5.7 11-1
2 2 Cowan 20.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 1 Full Screen 6.00 1 2-1
5 5 Antigravity 8.00 2.2 4-1
4 4 Bourbon Calling 6.00 2.7 5-1
7 8 Guntown 3.00 2.8 5-1
6 7 Swiftsure 3.50 4.4 8-1
1A 6 Bold Endeavor 2.50 6 11-1
3 3 Outlier 8.00 7.8 15-1
1 2 Cazadero 2.50 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Gallant Bloom S.) – Gallant Bloom S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Headland 8.00 1 2-1
1 1 Caramel Swirl 1.00 1.8 3-1
3 3 Undervalued Asset 3.00 1.8 3-1
4 4 Beguine 4.00 2.1 4-1
5 5 Remain Anonymous 20.00 3.6 7-1
2 2 Sterling Silver 5.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Joe Hirsch Turf Classic S.) – Joe Hirsch Turf Classic S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Stone Age (IRE) 6.00 1 2-1
4 4 Adhamo (IRE) 10.00 4.1 8-1
2 2 Soldier Rising (GB) 5.00 4.7 9-1
6 6 War Like Goddess 2.50 5.2 10-1
1 1 Grand Sonata 30.00 5.8 11-1
5 5 Rebel’s Romance (IRE) 1.80 5.9 11-1
8 8 Pioneering Spirit 10.00 6.9 13-1
9 9 Astronaut 10.00 7.3 14-1
7 7 So High (GB) 50.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Woodward S.) – Woodward S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Charge It 3.50 1 2-1
9 9 O’Connor (CHI) 8.00 1.3 3-1
8 8 Tyson 5.00 2.1 4-1
4 4 Zandon 2.00 2.5 5-1
10 10 Film Star 12.00 4.4 8-1
5 5 Pipeline 20.00 5.3 10-1
7 7 Un Ojo 30.00 6.5 12-1
6 6 Costa Terra 15.00 6.8 13-1
3 3 Algiers (IRE) 6.00 7.8 15-1
2 2 Law Professor 12.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Rocket and Roll 3.50 1 2-1
1 1 Henson 10.00 2.4 5-1
5 5 Two for Charging 10.00 2.5 5-1
2 2 Be the Boss 2.00 5.1 10-1
6 6 Always Charming 8.00 6.4 12-1
7 7 Callaloo 6.00 6.7 13-1
4 4 Locke and Key 6.00 7.1 13-1
8 8 Quick to Accuse 8.00 7.6 14-1
3 3 Rally Squirrel 30.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Housefly (IRE) 10.00 1 2-1
13 13 Sensing Flatter 5.00 2.9 5-1
9 9 Magic Eight Ball 15.00 3.7 7-1
12 12 Day Away 15.00 4.1 8-1
15 15 Maturity Date 6.00 5.7 11-1
3 3 Dancing Dean 15.00 7.3 14-1
6 6 Not Tonight Joe 20.00 7.6 14-1
4 4 Classic Cara 30.00 7.9 15-1
16 16 Paradise Lane 2.00 10.6 20-1
5 5 Vino Rouge 4.50 12 23-1
10 10 Channel Loop 12.00 12.5 24-1
2 2 Steel Lute 2.50 13 25-1
14 14 Villi Olento 20.00 15 28-1
7 7 Spendalot 3.50 15.6 30-1
11 11 Scandalous 8.00 15.7 30-1
8 8 Lucevan La Stelle 20.00 16 30-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
15 15 Crimson Princess 8.00 1 2-1
9 9 Autumn Glory 3.50 2.9 5-1
6 6 From Hello 15.00 3.2 6-1
4 4 Sweetness 3.00 3.8 7-1
3 3 Stella Mars 4.00 5.4 10-1
1 1 Disruption 10.00 8.4 16-1
16 16 Dashing Della 8.00 8.5 16-1
12 12 Smokie Eyes 2.50 8.7 16-1
13 13 Sweetest Princess 12.00 10.3 19-1
11 11 Dream Road 20.00 11 21-1
5 5 Can’t Fool Me 6.00 11 21-1
8 8 Sail With the Wind 8.00 12 23-1
7 7 Russiarussiarussia 15.00 12.7 24-1
14 14 Snowy Evening 4.50 13.4 25-1
2 2 Lady Jasmine 10.00 13.5 26-1
10 10 Saratoga Kisses 30.00 16 30-1

RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 11 Sol Emperatriz 3.50 1 2-1
7 7 Alley’s Song 5.00 1.8 3-1
8 8 Dancing Liana 6.00 3.1 6-1
2 1 Necessaryandproper 12.00 4.9 9-1
3 2 Song of Solomini 15.00 7.7 14-1
5 4 Poseidon’s Mist 4.50 7.8 15-1
6 5 Miss Omaha 8.00 8.6 16-1
4 3 Mastery’s Secret 20.00 9.4 18-1
1 6 Bank On Belle 8.00 10 19-1
9 9 Perfectly Mperfect 6.00 10.3 19-1
1A 10 Wise Conversation 8.00 11 21-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.