Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, September 30, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Major Fed 1.60 1 2-1
4 4 Treasury 5.00 4.2 8-1
3 3 Cousin Larry 4.00 5.1 10-1
6 6 Boise 20.00 5.4 10-1
5 5 Shortlist 6.00 5.7 11-1
8 8 Cool Rags 4.50 6.3 12-1
7 7 What a Country 8.00 7.2 14-1
2 2 The Honorable One 12.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Pillbox 2.00 1 2-1
3 3 Sparkle of Hope 2.50 1.7 3-1
6 6 Motown Mika 15.00 2.9 5-1
1 1 Magna Massa 10.00 3.1 6-1
4 4 Harmonica 8.00 3.2 6-1
7 7 Terranova 8.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Dear Lady 1.80 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Tepeu 3.00 1 2-1
4 4 Tres Soles 6.00 1.7 3-1
9 9 Nullarbor 6.00 2.3 4-1
6 6 Doctor Nash 8.00 2.7 5-1
8 8 Coastal Defense 5.00 3 6-1
7 7 Take the Charge 10.00 3.5 7-1
2 2 Uninvited Guest 8.00 4.6 9-1
3 3 Royal Act 4.00 SCRATCH
1 1 G T Five Hundred 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Value Engineer 3.00 1 2-1
3 3 Copper Missile 3.50 1.1 2-1
6 6 Legal Titan 5.00 1.6 3-1
4 4 Woodcourt 5.00 2.8 5-1
5 5 Ham Sandwich 4.00 3.1 6-1
1 1 Striking Sparks 15.00 4.2 8-1
8 8 Save the King 15.00 4.9 9-1
7 7 Dumbstruck 8.00 5.4 10-1
9 9 Steeler Mischief 10.00 5.6 11-1
10 10 The Process 2.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
12 12 Lady Moscato 3.00 1 2-1
2 2 Calle Reina 20.00 6.2 12-1
10 10 My Favorite Girl 4.00 6.6 12-1
8 8 Pursuit of Liberty 3.50 6.8 13-1
6 6 Honor Cat 12.00 7.8 15-1
5 5 Thorny 12.00 7.9 15-1
3 3 Noriskit Nobiscuit 5.00 8.2 16-1
4 4 Speak Up 20.00 9 17-1
7 7 Starina 10.00 9.9 19-1
1 1 Bump in the Night 15.00 10.7 20-1
9 9 Murphy’s Gift 12.00 11.1 21-1
11 11 Pretty Girls Union 30.00 12 23-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Carnivore 6.00 1 2-1
1 1 Impulsiveness 15.00 1.2 2-1
7 7 Single Ruler 2.50 1.9 4-1
4 4 Bucktown 12.00 2 4-1
5 5 Love Spell 3.50 2.5 5-1
3 3 Fightertown 3.00 3.5 7-1
2 2 Last Cookie 15.00 3.8 7-1
8 8 Timely Prospect 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Your So Sillea 3.50 1 2-1
6 6 Altered Shot 3.00 1.5 3-1
7 7 Leeloo 10.00 2.4 5-1
8 8 Kantex 12.00 2.8 5-1
2 2 Rock Star Parking 8.00 3.3 6-1
11 11 Mercy Warren 15.00 4.2 8-1
3 3 My Kentucky Girl 15.00 4.4 8-1
9 9 Four Dawn 6.00 7.3 14-1
10 10 Fast and Feminine 20.00 7.5 14-1
1 1 Megan’s Clara 4.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Slack Tide 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Jefferson Cup S.) – Jefferson Cup S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Noises Off 3.50 1 2-1
7 7 More Than Looks 2.50 1.8 3-1
3 3 Worthington 20.00 3.2 6-1
1 1 Ocean Pointe 6.00 3.4 6-1
11 11 Gaslight Dancer 6.00 3.5 7-1
6 6 Smokey Mandate 8.00 3.7 7-1
2 2 Tiverton (GB) 20.00 4.3 8-1
5 5 Midnight West 30.00 4.9 9-1
9 9 Ocean Vision (IRE) 5.00 5.8 11-1
8 8 Desert Duke 8.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Endpoint 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Ack Ack S.) – Ack Ack S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Zozos 1.20 1 2-1
2 2 O Besos 3.50 3 6-1
6 6 Skyro 10.00 3.4 7-1
4 4 Stage Raider 6.00 3.5 7-1
3 3 Three Technique 3.00 3.5 7-1
7 7 Caddo River 15.00 5.6 10-1
1 1 Seize the Night 12.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Lukas Classic S.) – Lukas Classic S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Rattle N Roll 1.40 1 2-1
9 9 Americanrevolution 2.50 1.6 3-1
2 2 Clapton 6.00 3.1 6-1
1 1 Happy American 8.00 3.2 6-1
5 5 Trademark 12.00 3.9 7-1
8 8 Five Star General 15.00 5.1 10-1
7 7 Whelen Springs 12.00 5.5 10-1
6 6 Blue Devil 20.00 5.6 11-1
3 3 Warrant 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Hogslayers R I P 15.00 1 2-1
7 7 Brigade Commander 4.50 1.9 3-1
1 1 Athens Moon 6.00 2.5 5-1
5 5 Orbi One 8.00 2.7 5-1
2 2 Royal Salute 8.00 2.7 5-1
10 10 Missionaire 10.00 3.5 7-1
12 12 Now That Ican Rock 15.00 3.7 7-1
8 8 Metallurgic 5.00 4.8 9-1
11 11 Royal Sandrin 15.00 4.8 9-1
6 6 Elegant Trip 4.00 5 10-1
9 9 Given to Fly (IRE) 8.00 7.4 14-1
3 3 Absolutely Certain 10.00 8.2 16-1
15 15 Auden 6.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Provisional 20.00 SCRATCH
13 13 We Will Conquer 15.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Pilkington 15.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.