Laurel Park Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, September 30, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Party Is Over 2.00 1 2-1
3 3 Irish Crystal 3.50 1.1 2-1
5 5 Royal Seamstress 8.00 1.5 3-1
2 2 Cushee 6.00 2.2 4-1
7 7 Run Around Slew 12.00 3.3 6-1
6 6 Too Many Kisses 10.00 3.4 6-1
8 8 Flitter 6.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Whatsyourbigidea 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Pounding Music 4.00 1 2-1
13 13 Kit Can Run 6.00 1.3 2-1
15 15 Misquillo 30.00 3.3 6-1
7 7 Mary Jane Chrome 3.50 3.5 7-1
8 8 Heartburn 15.00 4.3 8-1
5 5 Please Marry Me 15.00 5 9-1
14 14 Hot Choice 10.00 5.5 10-1
12 12 Missawlet 15.00 6 11-1
2 2 Water Witch 12.00 6.3 12-1
11 11 Twelveo’clockrock 30.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Red Wine Time 8.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Daisy Bee 6.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Gogo Chanel 6.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Maria’s Honor 5.00 SCRATCH
6 6 One Las Olas 2.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Goldieness 1.80 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Optional Claiming) – Starter Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Silent Malice 8.00 1 2-1
6 6 Passage of Lines 2.50 1.7 3-1
3 3 Dolice Vita 5.00 2 4-1
2 2 Shady Munni 3.00 2.1 4-1
7 7 Midnight Act 8.00 3.5 7-1
8 8 Bob Marco 3.50 3.7 7-1
4 4 Plot the Dots 20.00 4.1 8-1
5 5 Romp 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
12 12 Nami 3.00 1 2-1
8 8 Queen Rocket 3.50 2.5 5-1
5 5 Imaginetheodds 15.00 3.9 7-1
7 7 Catch the Kitten 15.00 4.1 8-1
9 9 Apple Shake Shake 2.00 4.3 8-1
6 6 Bessie Blue 8.00 4.7 9-1
1 1 Marley’s Ghost 12.00 5.2 10-1
13 13 Time Goes Fast 30.00 5.3 10-1
10 10 Virologist 10.00 6 11-1
4 4 Happyinitiative 30.00 10 19-1
15 15 Keep It Sweet 15.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Graceful Union 1.60 SCRATCH
14 14 Vana Bright 15.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Abby’s Lucky Girl 3.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Connie’s Dance 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Liquidator 2.50 1 2-1
3 3 Summer Odds 8.00 1.8 3-1
9 9 Northern Glow 2.00 2.1 4-1
5 5 Deeds of Love 3.50 2.6 5-1
2 2 Nineteenamendment 10.00 3 6-1
7 7 Bella Bettina 20.00 3.1 6-1
4 4 Hot Lookin Royal 15.00 3.5 7-1
1 1 Little Josie Wales 8.00 4.7 9-1
8 8 Peace Out 50.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Selima S.) – Selima S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Yatta 2.50 1 2-1
3 3 Low Mileage 12.00 1.2 2-1
8 8 Carmelina 15.00 3.7 7-1
5 5 Brocknardini 2.00 5.1 10-1
4 4 Hekate 12.00 5.7 11-1
9 9 Positive Carry (IRE) 3.00 6.2 12-1
10 10 Determined Sail 10.00 7.2 14-1
1 1 Kissedbyanangel 30.00 8 15-1
7 7 Flowers for Me 30.00 8.4 16-1
2 2 Gorgeous Girl 20.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Sir Alfred James 0 0-1
2 2 Classier 3.50 1 2-1
7 7 Sir Alfred James 6.00 3.3 6-1
6 6 Holy Synchronicity 10.00 4.2 8-1
4 4 No Cents 15.00 5.3 10-1
5 5 Mr Phil 4.00 5.4 10-1
8 8 Business Model 2.00 6.2 12-1
3 3 Wendell Fong 6.00 6.6 12-1
9 9 Eastern Bay 20.00 7.5 14-1
1 1 Ain’t Da Beer Cold 30.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Japan Turf Cup S.) – Japan Turf Cup S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
12 12 Eons 2.50 1 2-1
1 1 Bear Oak 3.00 2.1 4-1
6 6 Yamato 2.00 2.6 5-1
3 3 Will E Sutton 30.00 4 8-1
2 2 Serifos 10.00 4.6 9-1
5 5 Regal Kingdom 15.00 5.4 10-1
11 11 It Can Be Done 10.00 5.7 11-1
7 7 Oceans Map 12.00 6.1 11-1
10 10 Tiz a Giant 20.00 7.7 14-1
8 8 The Happy Giant 50.00 7.9 15-1
9 9 Tappin Cat 3.50 SCRATCH
4 4 Zabracadabra 1.60 SCRATCH
15 15 Derby Code 10.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Ajourneytofreedom 30.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Magic Michael 1.80 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Twixt S.) – Twixt S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Malibu Beauty 0 0-1
9 9 Interstatedaydream 0.80 1 2-1
1 1 Malibu Beauty 10.00 1.2 2-1
2 2 Miss New York 12.00 1.7 3-1
5 5 Hybrid Eclipse 3.50 1.9 4-1
8 8 Battle Bling 8.00 3.1 6-1
7 7 Batucada 8.00 3.3 6-1
3 3 Freccia d’Argento 30.00 3.3 6-1
6 6 Six the Hard Way 50.00 5.3 10-1
4 4 Champagne Toast 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Laurel Futurity) – Laurel Futurity

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Air Recruit 5.00 1 2-1
10 10 Wine Collector 6.00 2.2 4-1
7 7 Massif 4.50 2.4 4-1
5 5 Blue Creek 15.00 3.4 6-1
1 1 Tropandhagen 3.00 4.1 8-1
11 11 Skellig Island 15.00 5.3 10-1
12 12 Dancing Mischief 12.00 5.7 11-1
3 3 Sasse’s Class 30.00 6.5 12-1
4 4 Understudy Kitty 15.00 6.9 13-1
15 15 Mortal Sin 30.00 7.9 15-1
16 16 Elevated Game 20.00 7.9 15-1
13 13 Grand Kingdom 30.00 7.9 15-1
2 2 Thedingoateyobaby 2.50 SCRATCH
6 6 Edgartown 8.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Bolt of Aurum 2.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Blame the Tux 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Energy Efficient 5.00 1 2-1
5 5 Margie’s Fun Son 6.00 1.2 2-1
6 6 Money Room 12.00 1.7 3-1
3 3 Catching Stars 3.00 3 6-1
7 7 Infinite Series 12.00 3.7 7-1
4 4 Midnight Mine 30.00 6.3 12-1
2 2 Lord of Mischief 15.00 6.6 12-1
9 9 John Jay 4.50 8.8 17-1
1 1 By Hand 2.50 9 17-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.