Belmont At The Big A Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, October 1, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Baroness Bourbon 0 0-1
11 11 Bells Tolling 5.00 1 2-1
3 3 Dusk 2.50 1.6 3-1
9 9 Handle On You 10.00 2 4-1
7 7 Alette d’Oro 6.00 2.5 5-1
15 15 Cara’s Girl 10.00 3.1 6-1
2 2 Valentine Gift 10.00 3.6 7-1
10 10 City Blocks 6.00 3.8 7-1
13 13 Mia Nipotina 20.00 4.7 9-1
1 1 Lu’s Redemption 8.00 5.9 11-1
8 8 Baroness Bourbon 15.00 6 11-1
6 6 Learning to Fly 8.00 9.2 17-1
16 16 Call Her Bluff 2.00 10.7 20-1
6 6 Mad Banker 0.00 24.6 47-1
9 9 Two’s a Crowd 0.00 24.6 47-1
4 4 Taporical 0.00 24.6 47-1
7 7 Retail Man 0.00 24.6 47-1
5 5 Papa Do Papa Do 0.00 24.6 47-1
3 3 Blue Eighty Five 0.00 24.6 47-1
1 1 Solo in Paris 0.00 24.6 47-1
8 8 One Witheverything 0.00 24.6 47-1
2 2 Morq 0.00 24.6 47-1
4 4 Snarky 5.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Calling an Audible 12.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Realta 15.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Lil’ Hayadoin 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Electric Eel 15.00 1 2-1
11 11 Skip the Line 10.00 1.6 3-1
1 1 Gum Island 12.00 1.6 3-1
6 6 Change of Command 3.00 1.7 3-1
10 10 Reasoned Analysis 8.00 1.8 3-1
12 12 Sea Streak 2.50 2.1 4-1
4 4 Rathmore 20.00 2.5 5-1
3 3 Maximillions Dream 12.00 3 6-1
8 8 Wajda 8.00 3.2 6-1
9 9 States United 12.00 4 8-1
5 5 Livehappy 20.00 5.2 10-1
7 7 Thunderslam 30.00 5.8 11-1
7A 7 Nolo Contesto 0.00 20.4 39-1
3A 3 Chateau 0.00 20.4 39-1
5 5 Printrack 0.00 20.5 39-1
8 8 Flint Ridge 0.00 20.5 39-1
1 1 Flamingo Hawk 0.00 20.5 39-1
6 6 Shivaree 0.00 20.5 39-1
4 4 Cajun Casanova 0.00 20.5 39-1
2 2 Beachwalker 0.00 20.5 39-1
13 13 Trailing Monster 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Vosburgh S.) – Vosburgh S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Accretive 0 0-1
6 6 Cody’s Wish 0.20 1 2-1
4 4 Accretive 4.50 1.3 2-1
3 3 Sheriff Bianco 10.00 1.4 3-1
1 1 Great Navigator 20.00 1.8 3-1
2 2 Cowan 20.00 2.6 5-1
5 5 High Oak 12.00 4.2 8-1
7 7 Shadow Dragon 0.00 12.9 24-1
6 6 Big Bobby 0.00 13 25-1
4 4 Market Alert 0.00 13 25-1
2 2 Thrill of It 0.00 13 25-1
5 5 Bossmakinbossmoves 0.00 13 25-1
3 3 Colloquy 0.00 13 25-1
1 1 Aggregation 0.00 13 25-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 7 Swiftsure 3.50 1 2-1
7 8 Guntown 3.00 1.1 2-1
4 4 Bourbon Calling 6.00 1.2 2-1
1A 6 Bold Endeavor 2.50 1.3 2-1
2 1 Full Screen 6.00 1.5 3-1
3 3 Outlier 8.00 1.6 3-1
5 5 Antigravity 8.00 2.6 5-1
1 2 Cazadero 2.50 2.8 5-1
6 6 Hydra 0.00 15 28-1
5 5 Starship Defiant 0.00 15 28-1
1 1 Lady Milagro 0.00 15 28-1
3 3 Into Happiness 0.00 15 28-1
2 2 Three Rivers 0.00 15 28-1
4 4 Cairo Sugar 0.00 15 28-1
7 7 Good Sam 0.00 15 28-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Gallant Bloom S.) – Gallant Bloom S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Undervalued Asset 3.00 1 2-1
1 1 Caramel Swirl 1.00 1.4 3-1
4 4 Beguine 4.00 1.6 3-1
6 6 Headland 8.00 1.9 3-1
5 5 Remain Anonymous 20.00 2.6 5-1
2 2 Sterling Silver 5.00 4.2 8-1
7 7 Memorialize 0.00 17.8 34-1
12 12 Steel Lute 0.00 17.9 34-1
10 10 Later Darling 0.00 17.9 34-1
8 8 Gala Brand 0.00 17.9 34-1
9 9 Sierra Sky 0.00 17.9 34-1
11 11 Whimsically 0.00 17.9 34-1
2 2 Hard to Justify 0.00 18 34-1
5 5 Dancing Spirit 0.00 18 34-1
6 6 Camila T (IRE) 0.00 18 34-1
1 1 Appellate 0.00 18 34-1
3 3 Life’s an Audible 0.00 18 34-1
4 4 Gold Lightning 0.00 18 34-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Joe Hirsch Turf Classic S.) – Joe Hirsch Turf Classic S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Stone Age (IRE) 6.00 1 2-1
6 6 War Like Goddess 2.50 1.2 2-1
4 4 Adhamo (IRE) 10.00 1.4 3-1
9 9 Astronaut 10.00 1.7 3-1
5 5 Rebel’s Romance (IRE) 1.80 2.4 5-1
1 1 Grand Sonata 30.00 2.5 5-1
2 2 Soldier Rising (GB) 5.00 2.7 5-1
8 8 Pioneering Spirit 10.00 2.9 5-1
7 7 So High (GB) 50.00 3.2 6-1
10 10 Skate to Heaven 0.00 18.9 36-1
1 1 Scotto 0.00 19 36-1
7 7 Strong Light 0.00 19 36-1
8 8 El de Chimi 0.00 19 36-1
9 9 Colpo d’Oro 0.00 19 36-1
6 6 Dee’s Speedstre 0.00 19 36-1
4 4 Papi On Ice 0.00 19 36-1
5 5 Dads Good Runner 0.00 19 36-1
3 3 Proven Hope 0.00 19 36-1
2 2 Break the Ice 0.00 19 36-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Woodward S.) – Woodward S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Law Professor 0 0-1
1 1 Charge It 3.50 1 2-1
10 10 Film Star 12.00 1.3 2-1
4 4 Zandon 2.00 1.3 3-1
5 5 Pipeline 20.00 1.7 3-1
8 8 Tyson 5.00 2.1 4-1
2 2 Law Professor 12.00 2.2 4-1
9 9 O’Connor (CHI) 8.00 3 6-1
6 6 Costa Terra 15.00 3.6 7-1
5 5 B D Saints 0.00 19 36-1
1 1 Liam’s Journey 0.00 19 36-1
6 6 Get Spooled 0.00 19 36-1
8 8 Fulmineo 0.00 19 36-1
4 4 Tifareeh 0.00 19 36-1
2 2 Tropandhagen 0.00 19 36-1
7 7 Un Ojo 30.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Triple Espresso 0.00 19 36-1
9 9 Spirit Prince 0.00 19 36-1
3 3 Algiers (IRE) 6.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Agate Road 0.00 19 36-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Be the Boss 2.00 1 2-1
9 9 Rocket and Roll 3.50 2.7 5-1
1 1 Henson 10.00 2.8 5-1
6 6 Always Charming 8.00 3.2 6-1
8 8 Quick to Accuse 8.00 3.8 7-1
7 7 Callaloo 6.00 4.2 8-1
4 4 Locke and Key 6.00 4.5 8-1
3 3 Rally Squirrel 30.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Two for Charging 10.00 5.8 11-1
8 8 Tough Street 0.00 17 32-1
4 4 Frosty O Toole 0.00 17 32-1
2 2 Fireline 0.00 17 32-1
7 7 Miranda’s Rocky 0.00 17 32-1
3 3 Anatolian 0.00 17 32-1
5 5 Know It All Audrey 0.00 17 32-1
1 1 Tizzy in the Sky 0.00 17 32-1
6 6 Pretti Xtreme 0.00 17 32-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
16 16 Paradise Lane 2.00 1 2-1
15 15 Maturity Date 6.00 1.1 2-1
13 13 Sensing Flatter 5.00 1.5 3-1
12 12 Day Away 15.00 4.7 9-1
5 5 Vino Rouge 4.50 5 9-1
4 4 Classic Cara 30.00 6.2 12-1
13 13 Lafitte’s Fleet 0.00 30 57-1
6 6 Not Tonight Joe 20.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Magic Eight Ball 15.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Spendalot 3.50 SCRATCH
2 2 Steel Lute 2.50 SCRATCH
10 10 Channel Loop 12.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Villi Olento 20.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Scandalous 8.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Lucevan La Stelle 20.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Ruse 0.00 30 57-1
3 3 Dancing Dean 15.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Yacowlef (IRE) 0.00 30 57-1
5 5 Narciso Dali 0.00 30 57-1
2 2 Heathguard 0.00 30 57-1
6 6 I’m Very Busy 0.00 30 57-1
4 4 Capture the Flag 0.00 30 57-1
8 8 Be of Courage 0.00 30 57-1
1 1 Fredo 0.00 30 57-1
3 3 Sell Something 0.00 30 57-1
14 14 Skylander 0.00 30 57-1
10 10 Victors Valiant 0.00 30 57-1
9 9 Fighter in the Win 0.00 30 57-1
12 12 Bad to the Bones 0.00 30 57-1
1 1 Housefly (IRE) 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Disruption 10.00 1 2-1
13 13 Sweetest Princess 12.00 3.7 7-1
5 5 Can’t Fool Me 6.00 4.7 9-1
4 4 Sweetness 3.00 5.1 10-1
16 16 Dashing Della 8.00 7.3 14-1
10 10 Saratoga Kisses 30.00 7.6 14-1
11 11 Dream Road 20.00 8.2 15-1
8 8 Sail With the Wind 8.00 12.7 24-1
9A 9 Big Prankster 0.00 28.3 53-1
15A 15 Instamatic 0.00 29.1 55-1
10 10 Mithridates 0.00 30 57-1
8 8 Price Is Truth 0.00 30 57-1
2 2 Rob the Bank 0.00 30 57-1
3 3 Set 0.00 30 57-1
7 7 Az U Chase Me 0.00 30 57-1
5 5 Drinking Solo 0.00 30 57-1
1 1 Sorority Prank 0.00 30 57-1
13 13 Wonder Wonderland 0.00 30 57-1
12 12 Fratellino 0.00 30 57-1
16 16 Khadullah 0.00 30 57-1
14 14 Score the Rock 0.00 30 57-1
6 6 Nano Man 0.00 30 57-1
11 11 Woke Up Quick 0.00 30 57-1
4 4 Savage Spirit 0.00 30 57-1
12 12 Smokie Eyes 2.50 SCRATCH
2 2 Lady Jasmine 10.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Stella Mars 4.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Snowy Evening 4.50 SCRATCH
15 15 Crimson Princess 8.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Russiarussiarussia 15.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Autumn Glory 3.50 SCRATCH
6 6 From Hello 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Alley’s Song 5.00 1 2-1
5 4 Poseidon’s Mist 4.50 2.5 5-1
8 8 Dancing Liana 6.00 SCRATCH
3 2 Song of Solomini 15.00 3.5 7-1
10 11 Sol Emperatriz 3.50 3.8 7-1
1 6 Bank On Belle 8.00 4 8-1
2 1 Necessaryandproper 12.00 4.1 8-1
9 9 Perfectly Mperfect 6.00 4.4 8-1
6 5 Miss Omaha 8.00 4.4 8-1
1A 10 Wise Conversation 8.00 5.1 10-1
4 3 Mastery’s Secret 20.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.