Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, October 1, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Best Performer 3.50 1 2-1
11 11 Colette’s Joy 8.00 2.9 6-1
12 12 Lady Emily Kathryn 4.50 3.1 6-1
7 7 Spartan Queen 15.00 3.3 6-1
10 10 Excellent Question 5.00 3.9 7-1
4 4 Milan Mischief 20.00 5.5 10-1
14 14 Toffee 8.00 5.6 11-1
3 3 Blue Topaz 20.00 8.4 16-1
1 1 Tapitara 15.00 8.8 17-1
13 13 Queen Rhaenyra 12.00 9 17-1
8 8 Hamo 12.00 9.2 17-1
6 6 Lipochrome 15.00 9.5 18-1
5 5 Hurry Up Hannah 10.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Lady Claypoole (IRE) 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Tribest (ARG) 2.00 1 2-1
1 1 Overindulgence 1.60 1.6 3-1
5 5 Beautiful Mandate 5.00 2.7 5-1
6 6 Jayla 5.00 3.8 7-1
2 2 Miss Analyzed 4.50 5.3 10-1
3 3 Midnight Waltz 15.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 J T’s Imagination 3.00 1 2-1
1 1 Taysom 6.00 1.8 3-1
4 4 Quebrancho 5.00 2 4-1
8 8 Liquor Talk 3.50 3.1 6-1
5 5 My Brother Charlie 4.00 4.3 8-1
3 3 Summer in Aiken 8.00 4.6 9-1
7 7 Quantum 8.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Rachman 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Catching Freedom 3.00 1 2-1
5 5 Crusading 5.00 2 4-1
8 8 Burgundy Royale 6.00 4.8 9-1
7 7 Tis Charming 8.00 5.2 10-1
10 10 Cash Only 10.00 5.2 10-1
4 4 Planet 5.00 5.2 10-1
3 3 Speedtail 12.00 5.5 10-1
2 2 Penrod 12.00 5.7 11-1
9 9 High Enough 20.00 5.8 11-1
1 1 Raguel 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Icy Stare Down 2.50 1 2-1
5 5 Forever Home 3.50 2.6 5-1
9 9 Charge Account 3.00 2.6 5-1
10 10 April’s No Fool 30.00 5.2 10-1
8 8 Everyotherwon 15.00 5.4 10-1
2 2 Beach Kitten 20.00 6.4 12-1
3 3 La Tourista 15.00 6.5 12-1
6 6 Docs Seven 8.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Priddis 6.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Sunday Grace 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Rum Runner Ready 5.00 1 2-1
4 4 Empire of My Own 10.00 1.3 2-1
2 2 Shoppingforpharoah 12.00 1.7 3-1
8 8 Hurricane Debbie 8.00 2.1 4-1
3 3 Magniloquent 3.50 3.3 6-1
7 7 Hideki 2.50 3.6 7-1
10 10 Sweet Alyssa 4.50 4.1 8-1
1 1 Moon Magic Chrissy 12.00 5.2 10-1
6 6 Devine Charger 12.00 6.6 13-1
5 5 Strawberrylemonade 30.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Searcy 8.00 1 2-1
4 4 Hey Joe Joe 8.00 2.9 5-1
2 2 Mo’ Spresso 10.00 3.7 7-1
5 5 Stronghold 4.00 3.7 7-1
7 7 Track Phantom 6.00 4.6 9-1
3 3 Resilience 6.00 5 10-1
6 6 Quiet Rush 12.00 6.1 12-1
9 9 Cowboy Code 6.00 7 13-1
10 10 One Red Cent 30.00 7.7 15-1
8 8 Marcus Gift 20.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Blown Cover 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Enchanted Nile 5.00 1 2-1
2 2 A Lot of Spunk 8.00 2.3 4-1
6 6 Tap Dance Fever 2.50 2.7 5-1
5 5 Megan’s Clara 1.80 2.9 5-1
3 3 Fashion Rage 3.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Royal Blood 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Heartbreaker 4.50 1 2-1
1 1 Shooters Shoot 4.00 1.3 2-1
4 4 Greener Pastures 3.50 2.8 5-1
3 3 Trafalgar 5.00 3 6-1
5 5 Wind of Change (BRZ) 3.00 3.7 7-1
8 8 Breslau 15.00 4.4 8-1
7 7 Stormy Pattern 12.00 4.8 9-1
6 6 Texas Red Hot 10.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 R Rose’ All Day 4.00 1 2-1
6 6 Autism Community 4.50 2.7 5-1
5 5 Lavish Habits 12.00 3.7 7-1
9 9 Tituba 10.00 4.1 8-1
8 8 Loved Reiko 3.50 4.5 9-1
1 1 Faccia Bella 15.00 4.5 9-1
7 7 Robin Sage 8.00 6.1 12-1
2 2 J M Vela 30.00 7.7 15-1
10 10 Modern Love 15.00 8.3 16-1
11 11 Dame Joviale 30.00 8.6 16-1
12 12 Viva La Red 15.00 9.1 17-1
3 3 Whenthedawnbreaks 3.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Single Her 20.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.