Santa Anita Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, October 1, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Bigofromfresno 0 0-1
1 1 Gianola 8.00 1 2-1
8 8 Ghostly Act 6.00 2 4-1
11 11 Black as My Heart 5.00 2.9 5-1
12 12 Bigofromfresno 2.00 3.3 6-1
3 3 Granny’s Ipa 15.00 4.1 8-1
9 9 Torquewrench 8.00 4.7 9-1
7 7 Maxville 6.00 4.8 9-1
4 4 Silent Heat 6.00 5.9 11-1
10 10 Venom 30.00 6.2 12-1
6 6 Sure Prospect 20.00 9.2 17-1
5 5 Big George 12.00 9.4 18-1
2 2 Dark Marcus 2.50 SCRATCH
13 13 Chrome to Riches 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 6 Nothing Like You 5.00 1 2-1
2 1 Where’s My Ring 2.00 1.5 3-1
4 3 Ur in Trouble 5.00 1.6 3-1
3 2 Esprit Enchante 5.00 1.8 3-1
6 5 Elegant 1.60 2.7 5-1
5 4 Sugar Fish 12.00 3.1 6-1
1 98 Pacific Rose 0.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Vegas Burner 12.00 1 2-1
1 1 Sea of Cortez (IRE) 4.00 1.7 3-1
5 5 Bad Uncle Barry 6.00 3.2 6-1
7 7 Petcoff 6.00 3.4 6-1
10 10 Johnny Drama 12.00 4 8-1
9 9 Dr. Soulfire 3.50 4.7 9-1
4 4 Living Life 30.00 4.9 9-1
6 6 Classical 8.00 7.4 14-1
3 3 Distorted Math 5.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Neon Lights (IRE) 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Zenyatta S.) – Zenyatta S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Adare Manor 0 0-1
1 1 Adare Manor 0.40 1 2-1
4 4 Window Shopping 5.00 2.2 4-1
3 3 Desert Dawn 4.00 2.9 6-1
2 2 Micro Share 5.00 4 8-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Unzip Me S.) – Unzip Me S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Ruby Nell 2.50 1 2-1
1 1 Justique 4.00 2 4-1
8 8 Wide West (IRE) 5.00 2.2 4-1
3 3 Free and Humble 12.00 2.6 5-1
9 9 Fast and Shiny 6.00 3.9 7-1
4 4 Alternate Rock 6.00 6.6 12-1
10 10 Make It Snow 20.00 6.7 13-1
2 2 Lunar Impact (GB) 20.00 7.4 14-1
7 7 Wed (FR) 6.00 8.4 16-1
5 5 Havana Angel (IRE) 12.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Tokyo City Cup S.) – Tokyo City Cup S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Azul Coast 2.50 1 2-1
1 1 Missed the Cut 1.60 1.7 3-1
4 4 Order and Law 2.50 3 6-1
2 2 Kiss Today Goodbye 4.00 3.5 7-1
3 3 Donner Lake 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (John Henry Turf Championship S.) – John Henry Turf Championship S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Gold Phoenix (IRE) 2.50 1 2-1
5 5 Yes This Time 8.00 2.7 5-1
6 6 Speaking Scout 6.00 2.7 5-1
8 8 Cash Equity (FR) 8.00 4.4 8-1
1 1 Masteroffoxhounds 4.00 4.4 8-1
2 2 Offlee Naughty 5.00 5.1 10-1
3 3 Planetario (BRZ) 3.50 6.2 12-1
4 4 Balladeer 15.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Bus Buzz 2.50 1 2-1
8 8 The Big Wam 10.00 4.1 8-1
2 2 Will Be 4.00 4.6 9-1
4 4 Hard to Figure 8.00 5.1 10-1
10 10 Positivity 3.00 5.3 10-1
3 3 Father Delay 12.00 5.3 10-1
7 7 Hot Rod Rumble 12.00 5.4 10-1
6 6 Navy Man 8.00 5.5 10-1
1 1 Saint Ives 20.00 6 11-1
9 9 Redline 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Bally’s Charm 12.00 1 2-1
11 11 Carmelita’s Man 5.00 6.7 13-1
7 7 Castle Leoch 12.00 7.1 13-1
8 8 Crosby Beach 10.00 7.3 14-1
9 9 Vantastic 4.00 7.6 14-1
2 2 Tio Magico 6.00 7.7 14-1
4 4 Win the Day 20.00 7.9 15-1
5 5 Sarwar (FR) 5.00 8.2 16-1
1 1 Eastern Ocean 5.00 8.7 16-1
3 3 Hurricane Cloud (GB) 6.00 9.3 18-1
10 10 Kid Azteca 20.00 11 21-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.