Belmont At The Big A Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, October 5, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 6 Play Good Pay Good 6.00 1 2-1
6 7 Before You Go Go 1.80 1.9 3-1
3 4 Experimental 4.00 1.9 4-1
1 1 True Myth 3.00 3.1 6-1
1A 3 Caress 3.00 3.2 6-1
4 5 Bento 3.50 4.8 9-1
2 2 Candy Lover 10.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Chasing Daylight 1.20 1 2-1
5 5 Shoopthereitis 4.50 2.5 5-1
6 6 K D Kakes 4.00 2.7 5-1
4 4 Shigeko 6.00 3.1 6-1
7 7 Joeybignose 6.00 4.6 9-1
2 2 Joey the Fish 30.00 5.9 11-1
3 3 Alterina 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Libretto (IRE) 4.00 1 2-1
4 4 Tawaret 2.50 1.9 4-1
2 2 Starts Now 8.00 1.9 4-1
5 5 Machiavellique 15.00 2.3 4-1
9 9 Dark Pool 10.00 2.5 5-1
3 3 Why Waste Words 3.50 3.4 6-1
8 8 Anna Lucia 8.00 4.4 8-1
7 7 Addressable Market (IRE) 20.00 4.6 9-1
10 10 Naa Dudette 15.00 5.7 11-1
1 1 Absolute Control (FR) 12.00 6.9 13-1
11 11 Rapid Miss Tapit 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Bargaining Power 1.60 1 2-1
5 5 Duke of Gloucester 3.50 2.2 4-1
6 6 Louie’s Heat 8.00 2.4 5-1
2 2 Berlone 5.00 3.6 7-1
7 7 Motivo 6.00 4.8 9-1
3 3 Little Skippy 4.00 5.4 10-1
1 1 Golden Purchase 20.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Two Thirty Five 1.80 1 2-1
7 7 Durkin’s Call 2.50 4.3 8-1
3 3 Cool Quartet 3.50 4.4 8-1
2 2 Pit Boss 6.00 5.2 10-1
1 1 Life and Light 20.00 6.2 12-1
6 6 Datesfreedom 15.00 6.8 13-1
5 5 Caerus 10.00 8 15-1
4 4 Hang Tight 15.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Solo’s Fury 3.00 1 2-1
4 4 Six Fortyfive 4.00 3.4 6-1
8 8 God Laughs 15.00 4.6 9-1
2 2 Brick Ambush 2.50 5.2 10-1
9 9 Hair On Fire 12.00 5.4 10-1
7 7 Curlin’s Hustle 15.00 5.7 11-1
10 10 Blue Marble 20.00 6 11-1
3 3 Jeffersons Ocean 20.00 6.3 12-1
1 1 Slammin Gold 6.00 9.8 18-1
5 5 Winwood 10.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 King James 4.50 1 2-1
5 5 Charging 3.00 1 2-1
9 9 Majestic Johnson 6.00 1.7 3-1
10 10 Built to Last 12.00 2.5 5-1
4 4 Buckortwo 10.00 2.7 5-1
8 8 Volkert 8.00 4.8 9-1
2 2 War Terminator 15.00 5.5 10-1
6 6 Sainthoodforbrian 3.50 6.9 13-1
12 12 Veterans Beach 12.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Octopus 12.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Tenebris 15.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Kunshan Bridge 4.00 SCRATCH
11 11 He’s Got It 20.00 SCRATCH
1A 16 Got Thunder 12.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Happy Cat 4.50 SCRATCH
14 14 Fight Fiercely 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Cupid’s Heart 3.00 1 2-1
2 1 Pure Pauline 6.00 2.7 5-1
5 5 Sweet Mystery 8.00 3.3 6-1
9 10 Sa Foradada 12.00 4.7 9-1
7 7 Mongolian Panther 8.00 4.7 9-1
8 9 Portage 4.00 5.9 11-1
1 2 Fancy Azteca 6.00 6.8 13-1
4 4 Toned Up 12.00 7 13-1
10 11 Mia Bea Star 20.00 8.6 16-1
1A 8 Good Penny 6.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Ichiban 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Vince the Prince 2.50 1 2-1
2 2 Your Mission 3.50 2.6 5-1
1 1 Silent Running 12.00 4.4 8-1
5 5 Cattani 15.00 6 11-1
6 6 English Storm 6.00 6.6 12-1
8 8 Waflr 10.00 7.8 15-1
10 10 Just for Luck 6.00 8 15-1
9 9 Hari 5.00 8.7 16-1
7 7 Cash Bail 20.00 10 19-1
3 3 Testa Dura 30.00 10.4 20-1
11 11 Heroneandonly 30.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Refuah 1.80 SCRATCH
16 16 Aula 3.50 SCRATCH
15 15 Prix de West 10.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Chulligan 5.00 SCRATCH
13 13 He’s a Lucky Guy 2.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.