Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Friday, October 6, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Active Duty 5.00 1 2-1
1 1 Game Warden 8.00 1.7 3-1
11 11 J J’s Joker 6.00 2.1 4-1
6 6 Cashmeup 20.00 2.3 4-1
5 5 Archie the Giza 6.00 2.9 5-1
7 7 Dr Kringle 8.00 3.3 6-1
2 2 Peek 12.00 3.5 7-1
12 12 Surface to Air 12.00 4.8 9-1
4 4 Runningforjoy 20.00 6.3 12-1
10 10 Texas Pride 10.00 6.9 13-1
8 8 Cafe Racer 10.00 8 15-1
9 9 Barnstorming 4.50 9.9 19-1
16 16 Atlantic Dancer 12.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Solomon Vandy 15.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Big Skippy 20.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Dissolved 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Royal Slipper 6.00 1 2-1
3 3 Lemon Muffin 8.00 1.3 3-1
7 7 Bright Lady Day 30.00 1.8 3-1
5 5 Yaree D Tat 30.00 3.2 6-1
9 9 Loveland 15.00 3.2 6-1
6 6 Charlottesapproval 10.00 4.3 8-1
11 11 Tanya Showers 10.00 4.4 8-1
4 4 Twirl Around 4.00 4.5 9-1
8 8 Lady Chai 6.00 4.5 9-1
10 10 Chilled 8.00 4.6 9-1
2 2 Sister Ella 5.00 4.6 9-1
13 13 Western Gailes 6.00 6.7 13-1
15 15 Bernar Mosa 12.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Speighter Woman 10.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Aunt Fannie 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 H. T. Xena 12.00 1 2-1
4 4 Two Item Saver 8.00 2.4 5-1
2 2 Yes Day 20.00 2.9 5-1
1 1 New Beat 6.00 3.6 7-1
7 7 Eivissa 15.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Votary 10.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Bandita 1.20 SCRATCH
6 6 Mariah’s Appeal 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Lemorian 4.00 1 2-1
9 9 Dorothy Crowfoot 8.00 3.2 6-1
5 5 Twirling Queen 3.50 3.3 6-1
3 3 Our Keepsake 8.00 3.8 7-1
4 4 Done Enough 2.50 4.2 8-1
7 7 Xtreme Smoke Show 15.00 4.3 8-1
8 8 Almond Fudge 4.50 4.4 8-1
6 6 Kenwick 12.00 4.6 9-1
2 2 Intermittent Fast 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Cupids Crush 15.00 1 2-1
4 4 L J’s Emma 10.00 1.6 3-1
5 5 Bling 6.00 2 4-1
9 9 Determined Jester 20.00 2.3 4-1
2 2 Isabel Alexandra (IRE) 8.00 2.6 5-1
8 8 Daring Do 4.50 2.6 5-1
6 6 Sassy Nature 4.00 2.9 5-1
11 11 Stone Silent 3.00 5 10-1
1 1 Condensation 10.00 5.3 10-1
7 7 Gatita Suave 50.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Murky 15.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Zapple 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Gold Del Mar 30.00 1 2-1
5 5 Silvery Moon 20.00 6 11-1
9 9 Tammy Lynn 2.00 6.1 12-1
10 10 C’Est Cheese 15.00 7 13-1
6 6 Plagne Champagne 8.00 7.1 13-1
8 8 Circling 10.00 7.2 14-1
4 4 Pin Up Betty 10.00 7.4 14-1
11 11 Easy Street 12.00 7.8 15-1
2 2 Bourbon Breeze 4.50 8.1 15-1
1 1 Pour Some Wisdom 8.00 8.4 16-1
3 3 Carolina Candy 20.00 8.7 16-1
12 12 Berlaine 10.00 8.8 17-1
13 13 Shore War 15.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Makeup 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Stoll Keenon Ogden Phoenix S.) – Stoll Keenon Ogden Phoenix S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Doctor Oscar 3.50 1 2-1
7 7 Bango 2.50 1.3 2-1
8 8 Nakatomi 4.00 2.5 5-1
3 3 Sibelius 12.00 3.1 6-1
1 1 Hoist the Gold 8.00 3.5 7-1
4 4 Gulfstream Way 8.00 5.1 10-1
5 5 Top Gunner 20.00 5.2 10-1
6 6 Necker Island 30.00 8.1 15-1
2 2 Manny Wah 6.00 9.3 18-1
10 10 Baytown Bear 50.00 10.1 19-1
11 11 Voodoo Zip 30.00 11 21-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Jessamine S. Presented By Keeneland November) – Jessamine S. Presented By Keeneland November

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Toupie 20.00 1 2-1
7 7 Bella Haze 10.00 2.3 4-1
9 9 Appellate 10.00 4.3 8-1
4 4 Crown Imperial 6.00 4.5 9-1
6 6 Abeyance 15.00 6.4 12-1
11 11 Asternia 30.00 6.4 12-1
10 10 Buchu 4.00 8.9 17-1
8 8 Pharoah’s Wine 12.00 9.1 17-1
1 1 Smooth Waves 3.50 10.2 19-1
2 2 Time to Dazzle 2.50 10.5 20-1
3 3 Moonlight Gambler 30.00 11 21-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Darley Alcibiades S.) – Darley Alcibiades S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Candied 0 0-1
1 1 Alys Beach 20.00 1 2-1
7 7 Brightwork 1.80 2.3 4-1
5 5 V V’s Dream 2.50 2.6 5-1
6 6 Alpine Princess 8.00 3.5 7-1
2 2 Crazy Cami 30.00 3.7 7-1
4 4 Wine On Tap 20.00 4.7 9-1
3 3 Candied 6.00 4.9 9-1
9 9 Shimmering Allure 15.00 6.8 13-1
8 8 Emery 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Chasing the Crown 4.50 SCRATCH
2 2 Underdressed 12.00 3.1 6-1
1 1 Johny’s Fireball 8.00 3.2 6-1
4 4 Script 15.00 3.2 6-1
5 5 Beuys (IRE) 3.50 3.7 7-1
6 6 No One to Blame 12.00 5.7 11-1
13 13 Drakon 8.00 5.8 11-1
11 11 Bullseye Bun 30.00 7.4 14-1
7 7 Wake Surf 15.00 7.5 14-1
3 3 Point Proven 30.00 9.3 18-1
8 8 Colosseo 20.00 9.8 18-1
14 14 Wicked Finn 12.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Point Me By 10.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Golden Alchemist 2.50 SCRATCH
16 16 Luigi’s Spirit 30.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Cowboy Justice (GB) 20.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.