Belmont At The Big A Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, October 7, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Crown That Saint 3.00 1 2-1
1 1 Guanare 3.50 3.2 6-1
7 7 Twentyeighttothree 8.00 3.8 7-1
2 2 Rudy Rudy Rudy 6.00 3.9 7-1
3 3 Cowboy Luke 8.00 4.3 8-1
6 6 Badlands Ruler 4.50 4.7 9-1
5 5 Always Dialed 15.00 5.8 11-1
4 4 Uncle Eddie 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Gut Feeling 3.00 1 2-1
1 1 Warrior Richard 2.50 1.7 3-1
6 6 Arrebato 20.00 3 6-1
4 4 Strapped 3.50 3.3 6-1
3 3 Mama’s Gold 10.00 4.7 9-1
7 7 Achilles Heel 12.00 4.7 9-1
2 2 South Street 10.00 5 9-1
8 8 What’s Up Doc 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Waya S.) – Waya S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 McKulick (GB) 0.60 1 2-1
3 3 Parnac (FR) 5.00 3 6-1
6 6 Sister Otoole 8.00 4.6 9-1
1 1 Idea Generation (IRE) 15.00 4.8 9-1
7 7 Movie Moxy 0.80 SCRATCH
4 4 Personal Best 8.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Peak Popularity 2.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Romagna Mia (GB) 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Joe Hirsch Turf Classic S.) – Joe Hirsch Turf Classic S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Stone Age (IRE) 5.00 1 2-1
2 2 War Like Goddess 2.00 3.5 7-1
6 6 Soldier Rising (GB) 5.00 3.9 7-1
8 8 Astronaut 10.00 4.2 8-1
4 4 Rebel’s Romance (IRE) 1.80 4.4 8-1
5 5 Pioneering Spirit 8.00 4.9 9-1
3 3 Grand Sonata 30.00 5.1 10-1
1 1 So High (GB) 50.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Frizette S.) – Frizette S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Life Talk 1.80 1 2-1
6 6 Emery 2.00 1.1 2-1
3 3 Princess Indy 15.00 2.3 4-1
1 1 Irish Maxima 4.50 3.1 6-1
5 5 Just F Y I 3.00 3.8 7-1
4 4 Central Avenue 10.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Belmont Turf Sprint S.) – Belmont Turf Sprint S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Today’s Flavor 8.00 1 2-1
11 11 Dancing Buck 6.00 2.2 4-1
5 5 Eamonn 15.00 3.6 7-1
3 3 Alogon 8.00 4.9 9-1
10 10 Wit 6.00 5.1 10-1
9 9 Thin White Duke 5.00 5.4 10-1
2 2 Alexis S 50.00 6 11-1
6 6 Pirate Rick 20.00 6.2 12-1
4 4 Yes and Yes 20.00 7.1 13-1
12 12 Nothing Better 10.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Fauci 20.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Big Invasion 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Obrigada 4.00 1 2-1
7 7 Apropos 8.00 1.3 2-1
2 2 I’mhavingamoment 2.00 2.5 5-1
3 3 White Chocolate 3.50 3.1 6-1
1 1 Security Code 4.50 3.5 7-1
6 6 Cupids Girl 10.00 3.7 7-1
4 4 Royal Poppy 8.00 4.4 8-1
5 5 Triple P 50.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Champagne S.) – Champagne S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Timberlake 3.00 1 2-1
5 5 El Grande O 8.00 1.7 3-1
6 6 Fierceness 1.20 2.2 4-1
7 7 Gold Sweep 8.00 3.4 6-1
4 4 General Partner 3.50 5.8 11-1
8 8 Sweet Soddy J 50.00 6.2 12-1
1 1 Air Cav 15.00 6.5 12-1
2 2 Dancing Groom 20.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Jockey Club Derby Invitational S.) – Jockey Club Derby Invitational S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Fearless Soldier 8.00 1 2-1
8 8 Lost Ark 15.00 2.4 4-1
5 5 Dataman 12.00 2.9 5-1
7 7 Anglophile 5.00 3 6-1
6 6 Classic Catch 10.00 3.3 6-1
2 2 Faraday 8.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Webslinger 3.50 SCRATCH
9 9 Mondego (GB) 10.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Measured Time (GB) 2.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 4 Maker’s Candy 5.00 1 2-1
10 10 Frat Pack 2.00 1.6 3-1
11 12 Ocean’s Reserve 8.00 4.4 8-1
1A 11 Full Moon Madness 6.00 4.8 9-1
2 1 Lafitte’s Fleet 10.00 5.2 10-1
3 2 Leddy 30.00 5.6 11-1
8 7 Bad to the Bones 12.00 5.7 11-1
1 9 Twelth Man 6.00 6.4 12-1
9 8 Cicciobello 12.00 6.4 12-1
4 3 Skylander 12.00 7.8 15-1
6 5 Capone 15.00 SCRATCH
7 6 Shaky Pants 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 11 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Cant Keep Me Down 12.00 1 2-1
13 13 Ghostly Girl 4.50 3.4 6-1
12 12 Roman Goddess 1.80 3.5 7-1
11 11 Russiarussiarussia 20.00 5.1 10-1
14 14 Bon Adieu 2.50 7.7 15-1
2 2 Dontmesswithtess 6.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Smokin’ Hot Kitty 6.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Miscreant 12.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Diamond Status 5.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Bernt Again 4.50 SCRATCH
4 4 Miss Kristy 8.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Miss San Gabriel 4.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Thundara 10.00 SCRATCH
10 10 From Hello 20.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.