Delta Downs Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, October 7, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Grosse Tete Ian 2.50 1 2-1
8 8 Arkansas Zong 4.00 1.4 3-1
3 3 Half Crazy 15.00 2.5 5-1
10 10 Lovely Sassicaia 8.00 3 6-1
9 9 Knight of Honor 6.00 4.1 8-1
6 6 Strike a Bargain 20.00 4.3 8-1
7 7 Inglis 6.00 4.6 9-1
1 1 Red On the Head 5.00 5.1 10-1
5 5 Wauchula 20.00 8.3 16-1
2 2 Pallaton 15.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Catalina Day 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Optional Claiming) – Starter Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Oil Money 3.50 1 2-1
6 6 Prizeless 2.50 2.8 5-1
8 8 Wild Bert 6.00 3.1 6-1
3 3 Gentleman’s Secret 4.50 4.4 8-1
4 4 Justin Speight 5.00 4.4 8-1
1 1 Bayou Beaux 15.00 5 9-1
5 5 Launched 8.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Full Impact 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Girl Likes Bling 3.50 1 2-1
5 5 Buckskin Jerry 5.00 1.5 3-1
6 6 Custom Sunshine 6.00 3.9 7-1
4 4 Communicationiskey 12.00 4.4 8-1
7 7 Astrology Girl 20.00 7.4 14-1
2 2 Betonya 20.00 7.9 15-1
3 3 Molto Vino 4.00 7.9 15-1
1 1 Marion Roses Girl 8.00 9 17-1
9 9 Rachel’s Gem 15.00 9.4 18-1
8 8 F J’s Chaos 4.50 10 19-1
11 11 Good N Sassy 15.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Take Her Away 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Boardwalk Queen 10.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Forgotten Fortune 2.50 1.3 3-1
8 8 Malibu Toast 4.00 1.4 3-1
1 1 Thisonesforlove 6.00 2.9 6-1
2 2 Cincy’s Anna 12.00 4 8-1
5 5 Crystal d’Oro 12.00 4.3 8-1
6 6 Last of the Nile 8.00 4.5 9-1
4 4 Louisiana Cowgirl 5.00 5.8 11-1
10 10 La Villana 12.00 6.8 13-1
3 3 Wa Wa Wee Wa 20.00 9.8 18-1
11 11 Ring Twice 6.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Tease Me Not 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Pure Malice 2.50 1 2-1
9 9 Defiant Malice 4.00 3.2 6-1
1 1 Late Night Cruiser 12.00 6.5 12-1
2 2 Drewmania 10.00 7.1 13-1
6 6 Strong Diamond 15.00 7.9 15-1
4 4 Papa Flew Bombers 15.00 8 15-1
8 8 Baby’s Last Dance 20.00 8.1 15-1
7 7 Not Listening 3.00 8.5 16-1
5 5 El Pajaro Loco 20.00 8.6 16-1
10 10 Free Drop Rob 6.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Pinch Me a Penny 2.50 1 2-1
3 3 Jeffrow 3.50 1.5 3-1
8 8 Buck Doll Taylor 10.00 1.8 3-1
9 9 Reddingandlee 6.00 1.9 4-1
2 2 Joey’s Game 12.00 2.2 4-1
5 5 Letstakeitoutside 4.50 2.8 5-1
1 1 Theo d’Or 10.00 3 6-1
4 4 Main Dude 8.00 5.3 10-1
6 6 Party Little Boy 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Double Barrel Man 3.50 1 2-1
8 8 Big Bella Brown 12.00 1.2 2-1
1 1 Jake the Band Man 2.50 1.7 3-1
6 6 Smooth Colliery 6.00 2.2 4-1
7 7 Laughingsaintssong 4.50 2.9 5-1
4 4 Hostile Afleet 12.00 3.4 6-1
9 9 Lion Heart Legend 8.00 4.8 9-1
3 3 Slither 15.00 5.2 10-1
5 5 Mucho Marvin 15.00 5.4 10-1
2 2 Morricone 20.00 6.7 13-1
12 12 Farewell Time 8.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Waitin’ On a Woman 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Wupkar 3.50 1 2-1
7 7 Carson’s Princess 8.00 3.3 6-1
2 2 Two Minute Drill 12.00 3.6 7-1
4 4 Miss Tulsa 2.50 4.2 8-1
5 5 Birdie Call 6.00 4.5 9-1
9 9 Marina’s Gold 4.50 5 9-1
10 10 Cave Creek 12.00 5.4 10-1
8 8 Hamazing Debate 10.00 6.7 13-1
1 1 Texas Red Bel 20.00 6.8 13-1
3 3 Broke Financing 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Carpe Horseshoe 3.00 1 2-1
1 1 Beyond the Hype 15.00 3.9 7-1
5 5 Ann’s Storm 10.00 4.2 8-1
8 8 Honorary Guest 4.00 4.3 8-1
7 7 My Alibi 6.00 4.3 8-1
9 9 Fasted 4.50 5.4 10-1
10 10 Finnleys Encore 15.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Midnight Trip 12.00 7.2 14-1
3 3 Beaux Tox 15.00 7.5 14-1
4 4 Guest in My Heart 6.00 8 15-1
11 11 She’s My Priority 6.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.