Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, October 7, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Penny’s Prospect 8.00 1 2-1
6 6 A La Carte 2.00 1.9 4-1
4 4 Captain Jack 3.50 2.8 5-1
1 1 Master of Arms 10.00 3.1 6-1
5 5 Debate 3.00 3.3 6-1
8 8 Fan the Fire 12.00 4.9 9-1
2 2 Gunner Bay 20.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Power Alley 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Bergen 0 0-1
1 1 Linzer 4.00 1 2-1
3 3 Know Who You Are 4.50 4.9 9-1
10 10 Workislife 20.00 6.4 12-1
7 7 Honky Tonk Highway 10.00 7.3 14-1
5 5 Vesture 6.00 7.5 14-1
8 8 Toolpusher 12.00 10.3 19-1
6 6 Gallant Mischief 10.00 11.5 22-1
9 9 Moonlight Road 8.00 11.5 22-1
2 2 Surf City 8.00 11.7 22-1
4 4 Promissio 8.00 11.8 22-1
13 13 Bergen 4.50 11.8 22-1
11 11 Camaro Z 20.00 12.8 24-1
15 15 Higginsville 10.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Atomic 8.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Perfect Prankster 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Icicles 6.00 1 2-1
7 7 Insensitive 3.50 3.1 6-1
4 4 Take Time to Dream 3.00 3.5 7-1
3 3 Raggity Sand 20.00 3.7 7-1
8 8 Dream On Stormy 10.00 4.3 8-1
6 6 Three Polks 4.00 4.7 9-1
1 1 Crushed Ice 8.00 5.1 10-1
2 2 Devil Blue Dress 4.50 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Willakia 3.50 1 2-1
4 4 Music Festival 10.00 3.5 7-1
6 6 Quality Star 6.00 3.7 7-1
5 5 Saffron Moon 2.50 4.2 8-1
11 11 Watch This Birdie 12.00 4.7 9-1
8 8 Zawish 15.00 4.9 9-1
7 7 Cupid’s Strike 10.00 6.2 12-1
2 2 Lady Arsinoe 12.00 6.3 12-1
9 9 Girl Named Charlie 30.00 6.7 13-1
13 13 I’m So Sorry 4.00 7.1 13-1
3 3 Mammas Girl (GB) 15.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Beechnut Trophy 12.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Morgs World 6.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Lilly Lane 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Normandy Hero 0 0-1
4 4 Valentine Candy 3.00 1 2-1
9 9 Haul 8.00 3.5 7-1
1 1 Normandy Hero 6.00 5.5 10-1
10 10 Let’s Go Mark 30.00 7.4 14-1
3 3 Alder 2.00 8.7 16-1
8 8 Dunphy 20.00 8.8 17-1
5 5 Raccoon Rodeo 15.00 9 17-1
2 2 Baxley 4.50 9.3 18-1
6 6 General Battle Axe 30.00 9.7 18-1
7 7 Stormquist 10.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Woodford S. Presented By Fanduel) – Woodford S. Presented By Fanduel

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Eye Witness 20.00 1 2-1
9 9 Kaufymaker 12.00 2.9 6-1
2 2 Live In The Dream (IRE) 3.00 7 13-1
11 11 Beer Can Man 4.00 7.1 13-1
8 8 Our Shot 4.50 8.2 15-1
5 5 Arzak 15.00 10 19-1
1 1 Bad Beat Brian 6.00 10.1 19-1
6 6 Olympic Runner 10.00 10.1 19-1
10 10 Foxtrotanna 50.00 10.3 19-1
3 3 Let My People Go 10.00 10.4 20-1
7 7 Coppola 12.00 10.6 20-1
12 12 Kavod 20.00 12 23-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Thoroughbred Club Of America S.) – Thoroughbred Club Of America S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Blazin N Flashn 0 0-1
1 1 Wicked Halo 2.50 1 2-1
6 6 Yuugiri 2.00 3.2 6-1
5 5 Happy Soul 8.00 3.4 6-1
4 4 Static Fire 3.50 3.6 7-1
2 2 Fire On Time 8.00 3.9 7-1
3 3 Last Leaf 4.50 4.7 9-1
7 7 Be Like Water 30.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (First Lady S. Presented By Uk Healthcare) – First Lady S. Presented By Uk Healthcare

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 In Italian (GB) 0.80 1 2-1
2 2 Whitebeam (GB) 3.00 1.6 3-1
1 1 Gina Romantica 10.00 6.1 11-1
4 4 Jumbly (GB) 6.00 6.2 12-1
7 7 New Year’s Eve 15.00 6.2 12-1
8 8 Evvie Jets 10.00 6.7 13-1
5 5 Gam’s Mission 15.00 7.5 14-1
6 6 Thisnameisokay 30.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity) – Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Locked 0 0-1
Generous Tipper 0 0-1
1 1 The Wine Steward 8.00 1 2-1
9 9 Locked 1.40 2.4 5-1
7 7 Just Steel 12.00 3.4 6-1
5 5 West Saratoga 20.00 3.5 7-1
3 3 Awesome Road 3.00 4.1 8-1
8 8 Northern Flame 20.00 4.2 8-1
6 6 Generous Tipper 15.00 4.4 8-1
4 4 Baytown Chatterbox 50.00 5.7 11-1
2 2 Timberlake 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Coolmore Turf Mile S.) – Coolmore Turf Mile S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Up to the Mark 0 0-1
9 9 Annapolis 6.00 1 2-1
5 5 Up to the Mark 2.50 2.5 5-1
7 7 Atone 10.00 5.1 10-1
4 4 Set Piece (GB) 5.00 5.2 10-1
6 6 English Bee 30.00 6.3 12-1
3 3 Stitched 15.00 6.6 13-1
8 8 Harlan Estate 20.00 7.8 15-1
1 1 Master of The Seas (IRE) 2.00 8.5 16-1
2 2 Indestructible (IRE) 8.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Nash 3.00 1 2-1
7 7 Booth 4.00 1.1 2-1
6 6 Kitty Hawk 20.00 2.1 4-1
3 3 Hammerstein 8.00 2.8 5-1
4 4 Rapoport 4.50 4 7-1
5 5 Miyagi 6.00 4.3 8-1
8 8 Starscape 15.00 4.3 8-1
13 13 Goldbrick 15.00 4.6 9-1
9 9 Who’s the King 20.00 4.9 9-1
2 2 Alwaysintomischief 15.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Poker Run 30.00 6.6 12-1
11 11 Latta 20.00 7 13-1
12 12 Corso’s Pick 10.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Agoo 4.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Tap Anchor 20.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.