Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, October 8, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Hey Boss 3.50 1 2-1
2 2 El Franco 8.00 2 4-1
4 4 G T Five Hundred 1.60 2.1 4-1
5 5 Mohaafeth 4.00 3.4 6-1
3 3 Chisholm Trail 6.00 4.6 9-1
6 6 Navy Soul 4.50 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Queen of Missoula 1.40 1 2-1
1 1 Eyes of Gold 3.00 2.3 4-1
4 4 Stagflation 6.00 3 6-1
5 5 Gather 8.00 3.9 7-1
6 6 Rita’s Onthe Beach 12.00 4 8-1
3 3 My Lily Mae 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Brewhouse 4.50 1 2-1
7 7 Slack Tide 8.00 2.5 5-1
2 2 Choctaw Bingo 3.00 2.6 5-1
6 6 Love of My Heart 2.50 2.9 5-1
5 5 Icy Stare Down 20.00 3.1 6-1
1 1 Arella Star 15.00 4.8 9-1
3 3 Let’s Be Clear 2.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Collected Success 1.20 1 2-1
1 1 Been Real Busy 20.00 1.8 3-1
8 8 Choctaw Grace 4.00 3.1 6-1
6 6 Collier 20.00 4.9 9-1
4 4 Lost Love 4.50 5.9 11-1
5 5 Twilight Sonata 20.00 6.8 13-1
7 7 Above the Sun 8.00 7.2 14-1
3 3 Northern Road 6.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Hidden Path 3.50 1 2-1
1 1 Souper Quest 1.00 1.2 2-1
4 4 No Nay Hudson (IRE) 3.00 1.9 4-1
3 3 Crocodilehunter 30.00 2.8 5-1
2 2 Bal a Kazoo 20.00 3.9 7-1
6 6 Mounsieur Coco 10.00 4.8 9-1
7 7 Chiseler 8.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Wico (IRE) 4.50 1 2-1
8 8 Antares 1.00 3.2 6-1
3 3 Seeking Unity 15.00 3.2 6-1
5 5 Track Mate 4.00 3.8 7-1
1 1 Just Battle 12.00 4.9 9-1
4 4 Can’t Hush This 6.00 4.9 9-1
2 2 Cant Be Doin That 10.00 5.3 10-1
7 7 Schoolmaster (GER) 30.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Wicked Again 1.60 1 2-1
10 10 Runandscore 4.50 4.4 8-1
3 3 Study Committee 15.00 4.9 9-1
4 4 Tunisian Spring 3.00 5.8 11-1
8 8 Atlantic Dancer 20.00 6.2 12-1
2 2 Citizen 12.00 7 13-1
7 7 Give Him Time 12.00 7.4 14-1
9 9 Microbeastie 8.00 9.2 17-1
5 5 City of Love 30.00 9.6 18-1
6 6 Halmstad 15.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Indian Summer S. Presented By Keeneland Select) – Indian Summer S. Presented By Keeneland Select

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Shards 0 0-1
4 4 Sponge Bath 8.00 1 2-1
7 7 Bledsoe 10.00 1.7 3-1
10 10 Pinotslilgirl 8.00 4.1 8-1
2 2 Amidst Waves 3.00 4.4 8-1
6 6 Committee of One 4.00 5.2 10-1
8 8 Fairhopecurly 15.00 5.5 10-1
1 1 Shards 4.50 7.1 13-1
9 9 Riparound 20.00 7.4 14-1
5 5 Candymaker 6.00 9.2 17-1
3 3 Cowes 15.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Juddmonte Spinster S.) – Juddmonte Spinster S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Nest 0 0-1
3 3 Nest 1.20 1 2-1
2 2 Idiomatic 1.40 1.4 3-1
4 4 Le Da Vida (CHI) 6.00 3.4 6-1
1 1 Sixtythreecaliber 15.00 3.7 7-1
5 5 Bellamore 20.00 4.2 8-1
7 7 Malloy 30.00 5.8 11-1
6 6 Misty Veil 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Castle & Key Bourbon S.) – Castle & Key Bourbon S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Noted 3.00 1 2-1
11 11 Double Your Money 10.00 2.8 5-1
10 10 Nomos 15.00 2.9 5-1
8 8 Tok Tok 15.00 3.1 6-1
6 6 Vote No 8.00 3.7 7-1
1 1 Palm Tree 4.50 5.4 10-1
7 7 Fortune Seller 12.00 6 11-1
9 9 Coin Miner 8.00 7 13-1
4 4 Can Group 30.00 7.5 14-1
3 3 Depiction 10.00 8.6 16-1
12 12 First World War 6.00 8.8 17-1
2 2 Gorilla Trek 15.00 8.9 17-1
14 14 Tough Little Nut 15.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Tireless 6.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Good Bali 30.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.