Santa Anita Horse Racing Picks for Monday, October 9, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Don’tthinkjustdoit 5.00 1 2-1
4 4 Talklessworkmore 2.50 3 6-1
6 6 Mystic Flyer 6.00 4.2 8-1
12 11 Hacking It Up 5.00 5 9-1
5 5 Fore Flag 4.00 5.2 10-1
1 1 California Bay 4.00 5.5 10-1
7 7 Syntactic 12.00 5.9 11-1
10 10 Dos Vicios 20.00 6 11-1
3 3 Discretionary Day 12.00 6.1 12-1
2 2 Bravestone 20.00 8 15-1
9 9 Alpine Thunder 20.00 9.3 18-1
11 98 My Ransom 0.00 SCRATCH
13 12 Belly Up 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Coffee in Bed 1.60 1 2-1
3 3 Liberal Lady 2.50 2.4 4-1
1 1 Blue Wildcat 4.00 2.8 5-1
6 6 Keen Lady 12.00 2.9 6-1
4 4 Cliquish 2.50 3.4 6-1
2 2 Vitalera (CHI) 15.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Optional Claiming) – Starter Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Precocious Times 3.00 1 2-1
3 3 Ruff Ride 4.00 1.3 2-1
1 1 Rugelach 1.60 1.4 3-1
7 7 Firsttimeinforever 12.00 3.8 7-1
5 5 Annie’s Joy 8.00 3.8 7-1
2 2 Jordan 20.00 4.1 8-1
6 6 Court Snort 12.00 4.4 8-1
4 4 Nokie 5.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 California Tiger 2.00 1 2-1
7 7 Red Falcon 3.00 2.1 4-1
5 5 Logon to Win 2.50 3 6-1
8 8 Carol’s Comic 6.00 3.7 7-1
6 6 The Last One Perk 20.00 6 11-1
1 1 Lord Tripping 10.00 6.1 12-1
3 3 Lonesome Stew 8.00 6.8 13-1
4 4 Torleif 20.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
13 13 Avoir 2.00 1 2-1
3 3 Laudatory 6.00 2.9 5-1
4 4 Lahar Blockade 12.00 3 6-1
9 9 Thermal 2.50 3.5 7-1
6 6 Just for Fun 10.00 4.4 8-1
1 1 Ima Joker 15.00 4.5 8-1
5 5 Uffda 4.00 7.4 14-1
2 2 Certitude (FR) 20.00 8.4 16-1
10 10 Beads 8.00 8.9 17-1
8 8 Discrepancy 20.00 9.3 18-1
11 11 Respect the Crown 4.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Cailin Dana 4.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Visually 8.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Cyprus Moon 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Tahoe Secrets 3.00 1 2-1
3 3 Stafford to Kupp 10.00 1.5 3-1
1 1 Cathedral Light 20.00 3 6-1
4 4 Too Much Info 3.00 3.2 6-1
6 6 All the King’s Men 8.00 4.4 8-1
5 5 Missed Call 6.00 5.7 11-1
9 9 Ferociously 2.50 6.4 12-1
2 2 New York Dreams (GB) 10.00 6.4 12-1
8 8 Spiritist 30.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Liberty Forever 12.00 1 2-1
8 8 Baj 5.00 1.3 2-1
6 6 King Apollo 4.00 2.6 5-1
3 3 X J Rascal (IRE) 3.50 3 6-1
10 10 El Oro (FR) 8.00 3.4 6-1
1 1 Daniel’s Magic 6.00 3.4 6-1
4 4 Rutherford 8.00 3.6 7-1
9 9 Arma d’Oro 20.00 3.9 7-1
7 7 Del Mar Jerry 6.00 4.3 8-1
5 5 Hogmanay (IRE) 10.00 7 13-1
11 11 Bolt Supremacy 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Mor Tequila 1.80 1 2-1
4 4 Kingdom Heart 4.00 2.5 5-1
5 5 K P Kwest 15.00 2.8 5-1
6 6 Lovesick Blues 5.00 3.1 6-1
1 1 Good With People 12.00 4.3 8-1
3 3 Escape Route 5.00 6.9 13-1
2 2 Desmond Doss 2.50 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Swingtime S.) – Swingtime S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Hamwood Flier (IRE) 3.00 1 2-1
1 1 Eddie’s New Dream 4.00 4.1 8-1
8 8 Unbridled Mary 6.00 4.6 9-1
10 10 Oakhurst 4.00 5.8 11-1
2 2 Freedom Flyer 12.00 5.8 11-1
3 3 Lucky Girl (IRE) 5.00 6.2 12-1
5 5 Present Moment (IRE) 8.00 6.4 12-1
9 9 Ankyrah 20.00 7 13-1
6 6 Una Chiquitita (CHI) 20.00 8.7 16-1
4 4 Lucky for You 12.00 SCRATCH
11 98 Linda’s Gift 0.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.