Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Wednesday, October 11, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Lady With a Cause 4.50 1 2-1
1 1 Sicilian Grandma 1.20 1.4 3-1
6 6 Big Java 8.00 3.2 6-1
4 4 Spiritcatcher 15.00 4.2 8-1
8 8 Rock the Nile 12.00 4.4 8-1
3 3 Endless 30.00 5 9-1
7 7 Wildcat Dream 30.00 6 11-1
5 5 Vintage 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Khanate 0 0-1
4 4 Tiz My Hero 6.00 1 2-1
7 7 Lead Foot 15.00 6.8 13-1
9 9 Khanate 8.00 7.3 14-1
3 3 Stunnem 3.50 7.5 14-1
5 5 Head Lad 6.00 7.9 15-1
6 6 Moneyshot 10.00 8.2 15-1
12 12 Cloth of Gold 30.00 8.8 17-1
2 2 Wecallemfuncoupons 4.00 9 17-1
8 8 Silent Spectre 8.00 9.2 17-1
10 10 Great Richie M 20.00 9.8 19-1
11 11 Mr. Faversham 10.00 10 19-1
1 1 Pretty Fast 30.00 11.7 22-1
13 13 Waldrip 6.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Heart Headed 8.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Gagliardi 4.50 SCRATCH
16 16 We Miss Arlington 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Like a Saltshaker 2.00 1 2-1
12 12 Risk Profile 15.00 3.1 6-1
10 10 Shackleford Strong 4.50 3.3 6-1
4 4 Caramel Chip 3.00 3.7 7-1
3 3 Caseys Memory 10.00 4.1 8-1
6 6 Out Work’n 30.00 5.2 10-1
5 5 One Cool Dude 8.00 5.3 10-1
7 7 Junior Bug 12.00 5.7 11-1
1 1 Whistlewhileyoumow 50.00 7.2 14-1
8 8 Ready Pursuit 50.00 7.6 14-1
11 11 Startdfromdabottom 12.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Talkscheap 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Colonial Rose 4.00 1 2-1
2 2 Winsome Beauty 6.00 6.7 13-1
1 1 I’m a Mess 8.00 7.5 14-1
14 14 Turino 4.50 7.5 14-1
10 10 Fun Loving 8.00 7.8 15-1
12 12 Carina Nebula 4.50 7.8 15-1
15 15 Show Me the Candy 10.00 7.9 15-1
3 3 Killshave Beauty 15.00 8.8 17-1
11 11 Maybe Magic 30.00 8.9 17-1
7 7 Purr Factor 12.00 9.4 18-1
8 8 Pendulum 3.50 9.6 18-1
5 5 Marshamarshamarsha 30.00 9.6 18-1
13 13 Sea Dancer 2.50 SCRATCH
16 16 Floribunda 8.00 SCRATCH
4 4 High Fashion Kate 20.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Just Prada 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Go Margie Go 6.00 1 2-1
1 1 Wild Bout Hilary 6.00 2.3 4-1
2 2 Shy Shy 3.50 2.8 5-1
5 5 Intermittent Fast 2.50 3.3 6-1
8 8 Too Fast for You 10.00 5.1 10-1
3 3 Back On Track 8.00 5.6 10-1
9 9 Afterneath 15.00 5.7 11-1
7 7 Adios Muchachas 12.00 6.1 12-1
10 10 Little Sass 12.00 7.8 15-1
4 4 Stealthespotlight 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Grace Darling (IRE) 15.00 1 2-1
12 12 Lemon Bomb 8.00 1.3 2-1
3 3 Up and Down 3.50 1.6 3-1
5 5 Lilac Girl 5.00 1.8 3-1
4 4 Clever Joke 15.00 3 6-1
6 6 Whiskey Lullaby 8.00 3.9 7-1
1 1 Make the Boys Wink 6.00 4.3 8-1
7 7 Secret Statement 20.00 4.5 9-1
9 9 Beautifulnavigator (IRE) 4.50 5.3 10-1
10 10 Sake (FR) 15.00 7.1 13-1
8 8 Paint Me Perfect 30.00 8.3 16-1
15 15 Work of Fiction 6.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Empirical View 6.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Lakeside Music 30.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Hola Gata 4.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Star Fortress (IRE) 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Sant’ Antimo 4.50 1 2-1
1 1 Hurry Hurry 10.00 2.2 4-1
4 4 Speed Warning 15.00 3.3 6-1
10 10 Master Game 10.00 4.2 8-1
6 6 Madison Luvs Duke 8.00 5.2 10-1
5 5 Inexorable 3.00 5.7 11-1
3 3 Seven Flat 12.00 5.8 11-1
7 7 Long Crow 12.00 6.1 12-1
2 2 Fightertown 3.50 6.3 12-1
9 9 Pike Place 20.00 8.1 15-1
11 11 Dog Red 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Butterfly Queen 0 0-1
6 6 Luz Divina 3.50 1 2-1
7 7 Cairo Street 6.00 6.8 13-1
4 4 Simply Striking 15.00 7.5 14-1
10 10 Spiritual Lady 3.00 7.6 14-1
2 2 Mishka 8.00 8.7 16-1
5 5 Joyful Image 12.00 8.8 17-1
8 8 Auraculous 4.50 9.4 18-1
9 9 Queen Lexi 30.00 9.6 18-1
3 3 Extremely Gruntled 15.00 10.2 19-1
1 1 Butterfly Queen 15.00 10.3 19-1
11 11 La Scaloneta 30.00 10.4 20-1
12 12 Pula 20.00 12.4 24-1
16 16 Miss Harmonic 20.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Savannamarie 8.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Adellegator 30.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Crystal Symphony 20.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.