Belmont At The Big A Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, October 12, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Coach Sessa 3.50 1 2-1
3 3 Fast and Frisky 15.00 1.7 3-1
2 2 Red Burgundy 4.00 2.8 5-1
12 12 She Is All Busines 6.00 3.9 7-1
9 9 Starsinthecity 6.00 4.4 8-1
11 11 Practical Royalty 12.00 5.8 11-1
6 6 Snarky 15.00 5.9 11-1
10 10 Naughty Destiny 8.00 6 11-1
4 4 Pretty Up 12.00 7.3 14-1
7 7 Calling an Audible 20.00 7.5 14-1
8 8 Saratoga Smokeshow 20.00 8.5 16-1
1 1 Dividend Recap 10.00 9.3 18-1
13 13 Bossy Jeans 8.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Bertrille 20.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Munny Grab 4.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Dolomite 1.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Better Humor Me 2.50 1 2-1
5 5 Sweet Liberty 20.00 3.6 7-1
1 1 Foxy Cara 5.00 3.8 7-1
6 6 Island Rose 5.00 4 8-1
2 2 Malu 3.00 4 8-1
8 8 Teresa 8.00 4.8 9-1
9 9 Bussia 12.00 6.1 12-1
4 4 Monetary Monarch 10.00 7.3 14-1
3 3 Cuprite 12.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 He’smyhoneybadger 2.50 1 2-1
3 2 Bold Journey 2.00 1.9 4-1
4 4 King Angelo 8.00 2.2 4-1
1A 7 Business Model 1.80 2.7 5-1
2 1 Andiamo a Firenze 8.00 3.3 6-1
5 5 Eastern Bay 12.00 4.6 9-1
1 3 Colonel Bowman 1.80 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 8 Le Beau 6.00 1 2-1
2 1 I’m a Sure Thing 5.00 1.3 2-1
7 6 You Only Live Once 3.00 2.6 5-1
5 4 Remind (IRE) 12.00 3.9 7-1
3 2 Taciturn 10.00 4.3 8-1
1 10 Put the Crazy Away 10.00 4.5 8-1
6 5 Notinamillionyears (IRE) 4.50 5.5 10-1
8 7 Madaket’s Arrow 10.00 5.5 10-1
10 9 Riviere 6.00 8 15-1
4 3 She Will Dance (IRE) 20.00 8.2 15-1
11 11 Dreaming of Mo 15.00 SCRATCH
13 14 Miss Our Hero 3.50 SCRATCH
12 13 Vanished 1.20 SCRATCH
1A 12 I’m Glad (IRE) 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Salto de Tigre 1.20 1 2-1
7 8 Hammerin Aamer 8.00 4 8-1
9 11 Bold Victory 4.00 4.6 9-1
1A 10 Dontbelate 6.00 4.7 9-1
8 9 Joker Boy 8.00 5.5 10-1
6 7 Dixie Drawl 12.00 5.5 10-1
3 3 Pit Boss 15.00 7.2 14-1
5 5 Grumps Little Tots 12.00 7.3 14-1
1 1 Jumpster 6.00 7.3 14-1
4 4 Caerus 20.00 SCRATCH
2B 6 Allaboutthemoney 1.20 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Fleetfooted 15.00 1 2-1
4 4 Loon Cry 3.00 2.1 4-1
10 10 Private Credit 6.00 2.9 6-1
8 8 Play the Music 6.00 3.8 7-1
1 1 Kerry 6.00 3.9 7-1
9 9 Lost My Sock 5.00 3.9 7-1
13 13 Fontanafredda 10.00 5.1 10-1
3 3 Dekanter 8.00 5.4 10-1
11 11 Caironi 30.00 7 13-1
6 6 Sweet Dutchess 12.00 7.2 14-1
5 5 Georgees Spirit 20.00 7.3 14-1
12 12 Free to Roam 30.00 8.6 16-1
16 16 Obrigada 3.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Give Me Kisses 2.50 SCRATCH
2 2 Poet’s Woods 15.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Adeliese’s Smile 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Saratoga Chrome 5.00 1 2-1
1 1 From Hello 10.00 1.1 2-1
10 10 Rheaume 2.50 1.4 3-1
4 4 Mouly 12.00 3.7 7-1
9 9 Anileate 12.00 4.5 8-1
11 11 Judgement Time 30.00 4.9 9-1
12 12 Nightsaber (GB) 15.00 5.1 10-1
3 3 Except Temptation 8.00 5.2 10-1
8 8 Lady Jasmine 6.00 5.2 10-1
13 13 Pimenova 15.00 5.2 10-1
5 5 Tap It Up 6.00 5.5 10-1
6 6 Sister Nell 20.00 7.3 14-1
2 2 Frosty Invasion 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Rosebug 1.20 1 2-1
1 1 Rachel’s Rock 12.00 1.6 3-1
2 2 Mosienko 3.50 2.8 5-1
4 4 Self Isolation 4.00 3 6-1
5 5 Hey Mamaluke 10.00 3.9 7-1
7 7 Captainsdaughter 15.00 5.4 10-1
6 6 Dreaming of Snow 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Ky Thirty Won 0 0-1
8 8 Bustino Santino 6.00 1 2-1
10 10 Okaloosa 4.00 3.1 6-1
5 5 Scherzando 4.50 3.8 7-1
7 7 Scaramanga 12.00 5 9-1
11 11 Egyptian Quest 8.00 5 9-1
6 6 Kern River 15.00 5.3 10-1
12 12 Ky Thirty Won 5.00 6.1 12-1
2 2 Whiskey and Wine 6.00 6.6 12-1
4 4 Twirling Vine 8.00 6.6 12-1
1 1 Kid Emerald 30.00 6.7 13-1
3 3 Lookin’ to Win 30.00 9.1 17-1
9 9 Proud Alumnus 50.00 9.9 19-1
15 15 Refuah 6.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Kentucky Joker 3.50 SCRATCH
14 14 Friday I’m in Love 8.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Beary Funny 2.50 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.