Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, October 12, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 One Giant Leap 1.40 1 2-1
3 3 Kattath 4.50 3.3 6-1
5 5 Forrest City 2.00 3.6 7-1
6 6 Attache 8.00 3.6 7-1
2 2 Gold Luck 6.00 3.9 7-1
4 4 Chance 20.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Pass Line 0 0-1
6 6 Pass Line 6.00 1 2-1
3 3 Off the Clock 3.00 2.1 4-1
5 5 Fujin 15.00 5.6 10-1
9 9 Smoke Wagon 3.50 5.7 11-1
4 4 Lundberg 4.50 6.7 13-1
8 8 Huntsville 8.00 6.8 13-1
1 1 Tamashi 6.00 8.1 15-1
7 7 Amerease 20.00 8.9 17-1
2 2 Louis 8.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Beauxs Artes 3.50 1 2-1
6 6 Miss Tappy Tone 6.00 2.1 4-1
2 2 Minnie’s Ready 3.00 4.4 8-1
8 8 Royal Blood 2.00 4.6 9-1
3 3 Lotsandlotsofgold 15.00 4.9 9-1
7 7 Jackie’s Love 20.00 7.5 14-1
4 4 Royal Laughter 6.00 7.6 14-1
1 1 Water Fight 20.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Promisemeanempire 3.00 1 2-1
7 7 Accommodate Eva 15.00 3.7 7-1
4 4 Baytown Kitty Cat 30.00 6.8 13-1
10 10 Mixer 5.00 8.3 16-1
6 6 Fully Entitled 12.00 8.9 17-1
9 9 Vino From Ernies 12.00 9.2 17-1
2 2 Pam Pam 8.00 9.6 18-1
8 8 Mysidehustle 4.00 9.6 18-1
11 11 Annamaria 6.00 9.7 18-1
12 12 Pray for Champagne 30.00 9.7 18-1
3 3 Two Practical 10.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Liam’s Message 15.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Despo’s Dream 20.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Chiquita Reina 30.00 SCRATCH
16 16 She’s a Shopper 20.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Princess Is Olivia 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Mandatory Meeting 0 0-1
Radio Liberty 0 0-1
9 9 Thomas Aquinas 2.00 1 2-1
6 6 Phreddie Mac 15.00 8.2 16-1
12 12 Thunder Ball 20.00 8.4 16-1
2 2 Gamblin George 30.00 8.9 17-1
1 1 St. Armands Key 8.00 10.2 19-1
7 7 Radio Liberty 4.00 10.4 20-1
4 4 Mandatory Meeting 20.00 10.6 20-1
3 3 Gould’s Gold 6.00 10.9 21-1
11 11 Mendelsfly 20.00 11.3 21-1
5 5 Agapee Mou 30.00 11.3 21-1
10 10 Zverev 3.00 11.5 22-1
8 8 Elm Street 20.00 11.7 22-1
16 16 Disattached 8.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Trikari 6.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Sheriff Joe 15.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Act of Mutiny 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Good Heart 2.00 1 2-1
1 1 Money Run 3.00 4 7-1
6 6 Rungius 12.00 4.1 8-1
7 7 Indulge 4.00 5 9-1
4 4 Mumayaz 8.00 5.3 10-1
8 8 Carmichael 10.00 6.4 12-1
2 2 Stonevicious 8.00 7.5 14-1
3 3 Treaty 10.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Real Men Violin 4.00 1 2-1
3 3 Frontline Warrior 5.00 2.3 4-1
11 11 Mugatu 15.00 4.7 9-1
4 4 Edgartown 12.00 7.8 15-1
12 12 Tireless 3.00 7.9 15-1
5 5 All About Tonite 10.00 8.6 16-1
6 6 Drobny 15.00 10.2 19-1
2 2 Phenomenal Dream 20.00 10.9 21-1
10 10 Mill Street 6.00 11.1 21-1
7 7 Sharon’s Prince 15.00 11.1 21-1
14 14 Roundtop 4.50 SCRATCH
16 16 Uncle Truly 8.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Tapitoro 15.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Time Muse 50.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Deadpan 6.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Omex 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Little Prankster 1.00 1 2-1
4 4 Aunt Becca 6.00 3 6-1
8 8 Black Forest 10.00 3.6 7-1
1 1 Miss Arlington 8.00 3.7 7-1
3 3 Wilma Mankiller 4.00 4.3 8-1
2 2 Magical Lute 10.00 4.7 9-1
5 5 Lover Girl 30.00 4.9 9-1
9 9 Filly Crystal 30.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Moment to Shine 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Safe Trip Home 15.00 1 2-1
3 3 Tall Boy 3.00 2.6 5-1
10 10 King Curlin 4.00 2.8 5-1
1 1 Mr McGregor 4.50 3.3 6-1
8 8 All Choked Up 20.00 5 9-1
2 2 Baseline Beater 20.00 5 9-1
7 7 Oscar Award 15.00 5.4 10-1
11 11 Blamethegoodtimes 6.00 5.5 10-1
13 13 Le Griffon 30.00 6.1 12-1
6 6 Gatlinburg 10.00 6.2 12-1
4 4 Irish Aces 12.00 6.3 12-1
12 12 Fingal 12.00 7.2 14-1
16 16 El Ahijado 30.00 SCRATCH
15 15 American Diamond 6.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Kigali 10.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Soybean Man 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Allinthecall 12.00 1 2-1
7 7 Shesasmalltowngirl 4.50 1.6 3-1
9 9 St. Benedicts Prep 1.60 2.3 4-1
5 5 Nursekringledances 12.00 3.2 6-1
4 4 Market Profile 10.00 3.4 7-1
2 2 Wild Acclaim 30.00 4.1 8-1
6 6 Birdie Rose 15.00 5.5 10-1
8 8 Be Miss Hattie 8.00 9 17-1
3 3 Marmalade Skye 30.00 9.4 18-1
10 10 Oh My Gawd 3.50 10 19-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.