Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Friday, October 13, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Apollo Rising 3.00 1 2-1
2 2 Punctuality 4.50 4.4 8-1
7 7 Levy 3.50 5.6 10-1
5 5 Sound Doctrine 2.50 5.8 11-1
1 1 Faith Runner 8.00 6.8 13-1
6 6 Oneparticulrharbor 15.00 7 13-1
4 4 Cousin Odell 30.00 7.4 14-1
3 3 Golden Reign 30.00 7.6 14-1
9 9 Silvestre 30.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Augustine Red 4.00 1 2-1
3 3 Hey Joe Joe 2.50 1.6 3-1
5 5 Commissioner Oscar 30.00 2.8 5-1
9 9 Debt Paid 3.00 4 7-1
10 10 Spin the Boulevard 15.00 5.5 10-1
8 8 Googol Joke 15.00 5.9 11-1
4 4 Heart Headed 12.00 6.1 11-1
2 2 McAvoy 12.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Kobe W 8.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Mr Big Stuff 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Samarita 0 0-1
8 8 Invaluable 1.60 1 2-1
3 3 Ifihadachance 12.00 2.8 5-1
7 7 Samarita 2.50 3.3 6-1
6 6 Fairy Cakes (GB) 4.50 4.2 8-1
2 2 She Dazzle 8.00 5.3 10-1
5 5 High Speed 20.00 5.7 11-1
4 4 Sonador 15.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Shez Reckless 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Elite Forces 0 0-1
3 3 Elite Forces 1.60 1 2-1
4 4 Fit to Fly 8.00 2.5 5-1
1 1 Frosted Departure 3.00 3.7 7-1
5 5 Blue Light 4.00 3.9 7-1
2 2 Gilcrease 2.00 5 9-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Conversing 8.00 1 2-1
3 3 Smart Uncle 1.60 2.6 5-1
11 11 Equal Protection 6.00 2.9 6-1
12 12 Qualified 12.00 3.2 6-1
6 6 Fayette Spirit 4.00 3.6 7-1
2 2 Fireball Fun 15.00 6.7 13-1
9 9 Pilkington 30.00 7.7 15-1
8 8 Sagittarius 15.00 8.1 15-1
1 1 Get Ahead Now 20.00 8.6 16-1
5 5 Raise High 15.00 9.5 18-1
4 4 Western Moon 50.00 9.7 18-1
7 7 Auden 12.00 9.9 19-1
16 16 Earl of Dassel 20.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Provisional 20.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Utah Beach 4.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Crossing 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Telephone Talker 2.50 1 2-1
2 2 Huge Bigly 4.00 3.1 6-1
6 6 My Bariley 3.50 4.4 8-1
7 7 Populist 6.00 4.8 9-1
4 4 Khozan’s Success 20.00 4.9 9-1
1 1 Code Runner 15.00 6.3 12-1
8 8 Swing Low 10.00 6.5 12-1
5 5 Azure Sky 20.00 8 15-1
10 10 Improbable Story 30.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Dream Keeper 10.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Midnight J J 50.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Accredit 4.00 1 2-1
2 2 Fuerteventura 15.00 1.2 2-1
3 3 Hozier 12.00 2.5 5-1
7 7 Tiz the Bomb 10.00 3 6-1
11 11 Injunction 10.00 3.2 6-1
10 10 Beatbox 20.00 4 8-1
9 9 Ocean Atlantique 8.00 4.3 8-1
4 4 Play Action Pass 20.00 4.9 9-1
5 5 Highestdistinction 3.00 6.6 12-1
12 12 Gray’s Fable 12.00 6.8 13-1
14 14 Greyes Creek 12.00 6.9 13-1
16 16 Dreams of Tomorrow 6.00 SCRATCH
13 13 English Tavern 15.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Goodie Goomer 20.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Portfolio Company 3.50 SCRATCH
8 8 King Vega (GB) 4.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Plumeria 10.00 1 2-1
4 4 Genetics 3.50 1.8 3-1
2 2 Enigmatic 8.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Cararra 5.00 6.6 12-1
12 12 Remembering 6.00 6.8 13-1
1 1 She’s Arodeoqueen 12.00 7.1 13-1
13 13 America’s Vow 4.50 7.9 15-1
9 9 Intricate 4.50 9.6 18-1
10 10 Amy Z 30.00 10.2 19-1
6 6 Arijana’s Pearl 10.00 11 21-1
8 8 Grand Prairie Gal 20.00 12.2 23-1
5 5 Cowgirl Charm 10.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Lookster 8.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Savannamarie 15.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Foreseen 12.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Mother Freedom 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Sycamore S.) – Sycamore S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Channel Maker 0 0-1
Cellist 0 0-1
5 5 Tawny Port 6.00 1 2-1
2 2 Red Knight 4.50 1.1 2-1
7 7 Channel Maker 8.00 2.2 4-1
6 6 Cellist 15.00 2.6 5-1
1 1 Highest Honors 8.00 2.9 6-1
4 4 Therapist 6.00 3.7 7-1
8 8 Kitodan 20.00 4.1 8-1
11 11 Limited Liability 8.00 4.7 9-1
9 9 Another Mystery 30.00 5.7 11-1
3 3 Bold Act (IRE) 3.50 7.6 14-1
13 13 Shawdyshawdyshawdy 15.00 8.4 16-1
10 10 Red Run 12.00 8.8 17-1
14 14 Me and Mr. C 15.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Beacon Hill 30.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Britain’s Kitten 30.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Foreign Relations 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Tiger Dad 6.00 1 2-1
5 5 Nepotism 8.00 1.3 2-1
11 11 Mi Tres Por Ciento (CHI) 3.50 3.7 7-1
4 4 Herd Immunity 5.00 3.7 7-1
6 6 Emerald Express 4.00 4.6 9-1
7 7 Ready to Roll 15.00 5.4 10-1
9 9 Leader of Men 15.00 5.7 11-1
10 10 Palace Kitten 5.00 7 13-1
8 8 Woke Up in Love 30.00 7.1 13-1
1 1 Jumpmaster 15.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Huey Attack 30.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.