Belmont At The Big A Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, October 14, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Extra Dirty 0 0-1
Althena 0 0-1
2 2 Union Belle 6.00 1 2-1
5 5 By the Glass 4.50 1.5 3-1
6 6 Extra Dirty 2.00 1.7 3-1
3 3 Antenna 1.80 2.2 4-1
8 8 Celestial Express 12.00 4.2 8-1
7 7 Daisy’s Angel 15.00 4.7 9-1
4 4 Althena 20.00 5.1 10-1
1 1 Itza Dream 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Sands Point S.) – Sands Point S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Eternal Hope (IRE) 0 0-1
8 8 Highland Grace 10.00 1 2-1
10 10 Alpha Bella 8.00 1.3 2-1
4 4 Be Your Best (IRE) 3.50 1.4 3-1
5 5 Neecie Marie 8.00 1.6 3-1
2 2 Quarrel 15.00 2.9 5-1
6 6 Root Cause 10.00 3.2 6-1
3 3 Leave No Trace 15.00 3.5 7-1
7 7 Eternal Hope (IRE) 2.50 6.3 12-1
11 11 Essaouira 2.50 SCRATCH
12 12 Amanda’s Folly 6.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Stephanie’s Charm 30.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Soviet Excess 4.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Ichiban 2.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Saint Selby 0.80 1 2-1
2B 9 Chateau 2.50 3 6-1
4 3 Gandy Dancing 30.00 5.8 11-1
7 7 F F Rocket 10.00 5.9 11-1
3 2 Charlie Five O 15.00 6.4 12-1
1A 8 Big Engine 0.80 SCRATCH
6 5 Trash Talker 8.00 SCRATCH
2 6 Octopus 2.50 SCRATCH
5 4 Air Show 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Floral Park S.) – Floral Park S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Salvaje 12.00 1 2-1
2 2 Scotish Star (ARG) 4.50 2.5 5-1
4 4 Shoshanah 20.00 4.9 9-1
6 6 Risk Free 30.00 6.8 13-1
3 3 Itsakeyper 20.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Can’t Buy Love 6.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Bank On Anna 5.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Poppy Flower 2.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Bubble Rock 1.40 SCRATCH
10 10 Royal Poppy 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
15 15 Wynning Touch 4.00 1 2-1
16 16 Philly’s Finest 3.50 4 8-1
1 1 Purloin 8.00 4.4 8-1
10 10 Just Music 20.00 7.6 14-1
5 5 Dancing Dean 10.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Lucevan La Stelle 20.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Justdeny 6.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Channel Loop 12.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Style Points 6.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Public Assembly 3.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Past Tense 8.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Magic Eight Ball 12.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Day Away 15.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Katherine Thomas 8.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Not Tonight Joe 20.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Dynamic Pricing (IRE) 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 4 Two Thirty Five 3.00 1 2-1
3 2 Poppy’s Pride 5.00 1.4 3-1
6 5 Charging Aero 10.00 1.8 3-1
1A 9 Allaboutthemoney 2.50 2.6 5-1
2 1 Ryan’s Cat 4.00 2.7 5-1
7 7 Quickflash 5.00 3.8 7-1
8 8 Beachwalker 12.00 4.1 8-1
4 3 Life and Light 30.00 4.5 9-1
1 6 Sittin On Go 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Ski Patrol 4.00 1 2-1
14 14 Blue Plate Special 4.00 1.7 3-1
13 13 Built to Last 6.00 2.5 5-1
3 3 Three Zero 6.00 2.8 5-1
11 11 Flash Kiss 3.50 4.2 8-1
2 2 Moon Watch (IRE) 15.00 5.9 11-1
5 5 Hatch 15.00 6.3 12-1
6 6 War Terminator 10.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Starrystarryknight 10.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Morning Cup 2.50 SCRATCH
8 8 Forward Move 10.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Billy’s Got Issues 6.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Fadethenoise 3.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Mister Abarrio 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 8 Dot’s Dollar 2.50 1 2-1
1A 4 Milton the Monster 3.00 4.1 8-1
4 5 Into the Sunrise 12.00 4.1 8-1
5 6 Emerald Forest 10.00 4.2 8-1
1 2 Jemography 3.00 4.3 8-1
9 10 Jake Rocks 8.00 4.5 8-1
2 1 Thinkaboutit 5.00 4.6 9-1
6 7 Royal Tryst 20.00 8.6 16-1
3 3 Cajun Casanova 20.00 SCRATCH
8 9 Victorious Wave 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Strobe 2.00 1 2-1
5 6 Gun It 4.50 3.3 6-1
7 8 Provocateur 6.00 3.4 6-1
1A 4 Durante 1.80 3.8 7-1
4 5 Swill 15.00 4.1 8-1
8 9 Scaramouche 15.00 4.9 9-1
6 7 Seven Nation Army 12.00 5.9 11-1
2 1 Cowan 15.00 7.1 13-1
1 2 Spun and Won 1.80 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
16 16 Wine Responsibly 3.00 1 2-1
2 2 Unaudited 8.00 1.3 2-1
10 10 Specialagentjonson 12.00 3 6-1
12 12 Hard Par 5.00 4.2 8-1
14 14 Eric From Miami 4.50 4.6 9-1
9 9 Jhirsch 4.50 5.4 10-1
3 3 Albedo 8.00 7.2 14-1
11 11 Sweet Tone 30.00 7.3 14-1
6 6 Brown Don’t Stop 20.00 8.1 15-1
7 7 Kilkerran 10.00 8.7 16-1
1 1 Solo Rye’d 15.00 9.1 17-1
8 8 King Freud 15.00 10.2 19-1
13 13 She Takes Cash 8.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Patronage 3.50 SCRATCH
5 5 Dixie Pharaoh 8.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Dillon 15.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.