Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, October 14, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Shotshell 6.00 1 2-1
10 10 Blocked 12.00 4 7-1
1 1 Stand for Freedom 4.50 4.3 8-1
8 8 Bucktown 15.00 4.8 9-1
2 2 Mister Muldoon 20.00 5.1 10-1
7 7 Talkscheap 15.00 5.5 10-1
9 9 Vale 20.00 5.9 11-1
5 5 Creative Way 2.50 6.2 12-1
3 3 Canavall 3.50 6.6 12-1
6 6 Libertango 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Andy’s Candy 0 0-1
4 4 Cajun Fool 20.00 1 2-1
8 8 Stormin Love 12.00 1.3 2-1
6 6 The Rush Is On 50.00 2.4 5-1
7 7 Andy’s Candy 3.50 2.7 5-1
5 5 Jilly’s West 4.50 4.6 9-1
1 1 Salming 8.00 4.7 9-1
2 2 Tap Anchor 6.00 5.1 10-1
3 3 Cruisin and Boozin 10.00 5.2 10-1
11 11 Stormy Mesa 8.00 5.6 11-1
10 10 Hot Wings 12.00 5.8 11-1
12 12 Patriot Hills 6.00 7.2 14-1
9 9 Higginsville 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Stretch Ride 0 0-1
7 7 Edified 4.50 1 2-1
3 3 Seize the Grey 3.50 1.1 2-1
2 2 Astronomico 10.00 3.8 7-1
6 6 Lightline 0.80 4.7 9-1
5 5 Stretch Ride 6.00 6.2 12-1
1 1 Ham Sandwich 30.00 6.3 12-1
4 4 Sticky Note 20.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 You Gotta Have Fun (IRE) 15.00 1 2-1
1 1 Willow Bend 15.00 2 4-1
4 4 Charriere 10.00 2.3 4-1
5 5 Maotai 6.00 3 6-1
9 9 Street Jam 2.00 3.1 6-1
10 10 Shell Shock 8.00 4.7 9-1
6 6 Coexist 12.00 4.8 9-1
2 2 Roc’s Princess 30.00 6.6 13-1
3 3 Promise of Hope 15.00 SCRATCH
8 8 It Takes Heart 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Heckled 3.00 1 2-1
4 4 Boltoro 8.00 1.6 3-1
3 3 Zipadoo 4.50 2 4-1
5 5 English Treasure 15.00 2.7 5-1
6 6 Blessing the Flag 8.00 3 6-1
8 8 King’s Secret (GB) 10.00 4 8-1
10 10 Southampton Dock 12.00 4.7 9-1
2 2 Catmint 2.50 4.8 9-1
7 7 Animal Fries 30.00 5 9-1
1 1 Dream Fly 12.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Medaglia Forever 4.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Dornoch 3.50 1 2-1
4 4 Django 8.00 3.9 7-1
5 5 Allied Victory 12.00 4.3 8-1
6 6 Greers Ferry 10.00 4.9 9-1
3 3 Lat Long 5.00 7.1 13-1
8 8 Redfield 20.00 7.8 15-1
1 1 Midnight Maestro 20.00 8.6 16-1
11 11 Nuevo Empire 20.00 8.8 17-1
10 10 Tennessee Lamb 30.00 10 19-1
12 12 Dive Bomber 2.50 SCRATCH
7 7 Play It Loud 15.00 SCRATCH
9 9 No Judgment 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Nineeleventurbo 1.20 1 2-1
6 6 Foreign Relations 4.50 2.1 4-1
5 5 Stolen Base 15.00 2.4 5-1
3 3 Kitten Mischief 15.00 3.8 7-1
10 10 Quadra Island 20.00 4.8 9-1
13 13 Seven Charms 8.00 5.5 10-1
7 7 O P Firecracker 30.00 6.8 13-1
4 4 Sharar 12.00 7.2 14-1
2 2 Altazor (ARG) 20.00 8 15-1
9 9 Montauk Point 15.00 8.5 16-1
14 14 Over the Channel 30.00 SCRATCH
11 11 February Son 15.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Out of Deductions 30.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Microphone (IRE) 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Pumpkin Scone 4.50 1 2-1
9 9 Zeitlos 5.00 1.4 3-1
8 8 Little Blaze 6.00 1.6 3-1
11 11 Rarify 8.00 2.3 4-1
10 10 Accede 3.50 2.7 5-1
5 5 Dear Lady 10.00 3.7 7-1
6 6 Rosie’s Alibi 12.00 3.7 7-1
3 3 Mucho Macho Girl 12.00 5.3 10-1
7 7 You Little Vixen 10.00 5.9 11-1
4 4 Three Tipsy Chix 30.00 7.8 15-1
1 1 Stellar Lily 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Queen Elizabeth Ii Challenge Cup S. Presented By Dixiana) – Queen Elizabeth Ii Challenge Cup S. Presented By Dixiana

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Lindy (FR) 0 0-1
12 12 Papilio (IRE) 10.00 1 2-1
1 1 Mission of Joy 20.00 3.1 6-1
10 10 Liguria 15.00 5 9-1
7 7 Sounds of Heaven (GB) 8.00 6.2 12-1
4 4 Mawj (IRE) 2.00 6.2 12-1
13 13 Freydis the Red (FR) 10.00 6.5 12-1
8 8 Elounda Queen (IRE) 10.00 6.7 13-1
2 2 Elusive Princess (FR) 3.00 6.7 13-1
6 6 Lindy (FR) 6.00 7.5 14-1
11 11 Prerequisite 20.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Safeen 30.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Heavenly Sunday 30.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Be Your Best (IRE) 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
First Mission 0 0-1
1 1 First Mission 1.00 1 2-1
10 10 Creative Minister 6.00 3.2 6-1
13 13 Airtime 10.00 3.9 7-1
12 12 Implementation 20.00 4.5 9-1
2 2 Keystone Field 6.00 5.4 10-1
7 7 Cooke Creek 8.00 6.8 13-1
9 9 Commandperformance 30.00 7.1 13-1
6 6 Roman Centurian 20.00 7.4 14-1
5 5 Tartufo 30.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Saqeel 10.00 SCRATCH
11 11 He’s a Mess 30.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Gunoe 20.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Curly Jack 20.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.