Santa Anita Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, October 14, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Blonde Bombshell 12.00 1 2-1
9 9 In Your Face 3.50 2.7 5-1
4 4 Katerini 4.00 3 6-1
2 2 Modera 15.00 3.1 6-1
8 8 Mimsy 8.00 3.8 7-1
12 11 Downburst 6.00 3.8 7-1
3 3 De Joria 6.00 4.3 8-1
11 10 Magazine 8.00 5.7 11-1
1 1 Corporal Violette (IRE) 12.00 5.8 11-1
6 6 Dolly May (IRE) 6.00 6.1 12-1
7 7 Shezmisbehaving 30.00 7.2 14-1
14 13 Violet Storm 6.00 SCRATCH
13 12 Vulin 15.00 SCRATCH
10 98 Divinely Bolt 0.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Nothing Like You 1.80 1 2-1
2 2 Tianma 2.50 2.1 4-1
3 3 Great Forty Eight 8.00 2.8 5-1
4 4 Arctic Breeze 10.00 3.5 7-1
1 1 Don’t Bring Crazy 4.00 3.6 7-1
6 6 Flynn’s Chance 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Pinehurst (IRE) 6.00 1 2-1
6 6 Legislator 1.20 2.5 5-1
2 2 Calm Sea 4.00 2.9 6-1
7 7 St Ignacio 8.00 3.7 7-1
5 5 Smooth Salute 4.00 4.1 8-1
3 3 My Partner Glen 12.00 6.8 13-1
4 4 Hula Candy 8.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Super Chief 0.80 1 2-1
4 4 Sauls Call 8.00 1.7 3-1
1 1 Colt Fiction 3.00 2.6 5-1
2 2 Seattle Breakout 12.00 5.1 10-1
3 3 Stay in the Game 6.00 5.1 10-1
6 6 El Diablo Rojo 5.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Not A Sinner (GB) 6.00 1 2-1
6 6 Iscreamuscream 5.00 3.2 6-1
5 5 Feisty Mitole 12.00 3.7 7-1
8 8 Double Bay (IRE) 6.00 4.1 8-1
9 9 Cailin Dana 4.00 4.4 8-1
7 7 Impec (IRE) 20.00 5.1 10-1
3 3 Ellie Moore (IRE) 4.00 6.1 11-1
2 2 Respect the Crown 3.00 6.3 12-1
4 4 Visually 12.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Habeas 3.00 1 2-1
1 1 John Grey 8.00 1.6 3-1
10 10 King Zog 10.00 2 4-1
3 3 Chaos Reigns 2.50 3.3 6-1
6 6 My Brother Mike 20.00 4.1 8-1
8 8 Pop Pop’s Ride 6.00 4.2 8-1
7 7 Take Action 4.00 5.1 10-1
5 5 Emerald Union 20.00 5.7 11-1
4 4 Fifty Cinco 12.00 6.5 12-1
2 2 Gabbysonholiday 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (California Distaff H.) – California Distaff H.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Organic 10.00 1 2-1
6 6 Rose Maddox 2.50 1.5 3-1
3 3 Ultimate Hy 3.00 4.3 8-1
5 5 Rose Dawson 2.00 5 9-1
4 4 Chismosa 8.00 5.1 10-1
7 7 Madiha 15.00 6.7 13-1
2 2 Kleen Karma 5.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Sheza Girly Girl 3.00 1 2-1
8 8 Equilove (IRE) 5.00 1.2 2-1
10 10 Awesome Taylor 6.00 3.6 7-1
6 6 Jacrodra’s Devil 20.00 4.4 8-1
7 7 Code Ribbon 8.00 4.4 8-1
3 3 A New Peace 2.50 4.4 8-1
2 2 Never Sway 6.00 5.6 11-1
5 5 Mo Connelly 20.00 7.5 14-1
9 9 Drizella 30.00 7.7 14-1
1 1 Roman Empress 10.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Big Coupe 3.50 1 2-1
4 4 Giovinazzo 6.00 3.1 6-1
8 8 Low Expectations 12.00 3.5 7-1
2 2 Big Hat Willie 3.00 3.8 7-1
1 1 Marks Hip 20.00 4.6 9-1
9 9 Caisson 4.00 5.8 11-1
3 3 Mo Rewards 5.00 6.1 12-1
6 6 Mastermind 15.00 6.4 12-1
5 5 Aurelian Man 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Stamp My Passport 2.50 1 2-1
8 8 Clouseau 10.00 1.8 3-1
2 2 Ever a Rebel 6.00 1.9 4-1
6 6 Breakfast Ride 3.50 3 6-1
4 4 Arrowthegreat 5.00 3.6 7-1
7 7 Smart Mo 6.00 4.5 9-1
3 3 Finneus 12.00 5 9-1
1 1 Ghazaaly 3.50 5.2 10-1
5 5 Mischelof (CHI) 30.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 11 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Tiz Plus 3.00 1 2-1
4 4 Departure 12.00 2.2 4-1
1 1 Jacks Outlaw 20.00 3.1 6-1
3 3 Overdue 2.50 3.1 6-1
5 5 Cali Bay (IRE) 8.00 3.5 7-1
7 7 Grape Nuts Warrior 4.00 3.6 7-1
6 6 Birth of Cool 5.00 5.2 10-1
2 2 Majestic Eagle 10.00 5.9 11-1
10 10 Boaster 20.00 6.9 13-1
9 9 Perfectionistic 20.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.