Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, October 15, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Derrick 1.80 1 2-1
3 3 Dreamwithinadream 6.00 1.7 3-1
8 8 Go Cats 12.00 2.3 4-1
1 1 Sunset Town 3.50 2.4 5-1
10 10 Battle Born 20.00 2.6 5-1
7 7 Dario 8.00 3.3 6-1
4 4 Airborne Elite 12.00 3.7 7-1
2 2 Lots of Mischief 5.00 4 7-1
5 5 Jul Quist 20.00 8 15-1
6 6 Valuable Cargo 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Courbe 0 0-1
Riperton 0 0-1
1 1 Courbe 2.50 1 2-1
2 2 Riperton 4.00 1.7 3-1
6 6 Show Off 1.60 4.1 8-1
4 4 Peignoir 8.00 5.3 10-1
3 3 Floored 6.00 5.8 11-1
5 5 Umeboshi 12.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Yolanda Who 3.50 1 2-1
10 10 Ship It 8.00 2.5 5-1
8 8 Gormleyesque 6.00 2.5 5-1
2 2 Sunday Grace 10.00 3 6-1
9 9 Liam’s Lass 15.00 3.2 6-1
1 1 Miss Foxann 8.00 4.2 8-1
3 3 Gin N Sin 30.00 5.6 11-1
7 7 Beach Kitten 30.00 5.7 11-1
6 6 Dogwoodsmilliejane 10.00 7.5 14-1
4 4 You’re Avoiding Me 1.60 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Desert Wolf 3.00 1 2-1
3 3 My Uncle Frank 4.00 2.4 5-1
11 11 Mo Moves 30.00 4.7 9-1
8 8 Golden Flash 15.00 4.8 9-1
12 12 Coal Boss 20.00 6.5 12-1
5 5 The Gatekeeper 8.00 6.6 12-1
4 4 Honor Gold 4.50 6.9 13-1
6 6 Jay Bird 20.00 6.9 13-1
7 7 Exemplified 6.00 7.7 15-1
2 2 Generation 30.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Gordy’s Label 12.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Texcoco 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Artemus Citylimits 15.00 1 2-1
7 7 Plane Talk 15.00 2 4-1
12 12 Go Bears Go (IRE) 6.00 2.8 5-1
9 9 Mischievous Rogue 6.00 3.6 7-1
11 11 Just Might 12.00 4 7-1
5 5 Mark of the Z 10.00 4.1 8-1
6 6 Evan Sing 4.50 4.7 9-1
8 8 Cloudy 12.00 4.7 9-1
4 4 Heaven Street 4.00 4.9 9-1
1 1 Bodenheimer 8.00 5.1 10-1
2 2 Biz Biz Buzz 10.00 5.8 11-1
3 3 Tut’s Revenge 20.00 7.3 14-1
16 16 Payne 4.50 SCRATCH
15 15 Miles Ahead 3.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Arrest Me Red 8.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Outlaw Kid 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Steampunk 12.00 1 2-1
8 8 Sweet Sunshine 5.00 7.6 14-1
11 11 Lite It Up Louie 4.50 8.3 16-1
3 3 Grinning 6.00 8.5 16-1
12 12 Abundant Life 12.00 8.6 16-1
7 7 Shiloh’s Mistress 8.00 8.6 16-1
9 9 Happy Talk 6.00 8.9 17-1
2 2 Final Draft 8.00 9.4 18-1
10 10 Cozee Rags 30.00 9.4 18-1
6 6 Sweet Violet 15.00 9.5 18-1
5 5 Ruby Queen 6.00 9.8 19-1
1 1 Nandina 30.00 10.3 20-1
16 16 Bernar Mosa 12.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Best of All 4.50 SCRATCH
15 15 Money Works 6.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Marco Sunset 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Franklin S.) – Franklin S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Twilight Gleaming (IRE) 6.00 1 2-1
1 1 Caravel 1.80 1.5 3-1
5 5 Bay Storm 4.50 2.6 5-1
8 8 Tony Ann 8.00 3.6 7-1
3 3 Train to Artemus 20.00 4.7 9-1
2 2 Wakanaka (IRE) 5.00 5 9-1
9 9 B G Warrior 30.00 5.7 11-1
6 6 Linguistic 30.00 6.2 12-1
7 7 Star Guest (GB) 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Pensacola 3.50 1 2-1
5 5 Billy Jack 8.00 1.3 2-1
8 8 Old Alliance 20.00 3.4 6-1
3 3 Bourbon Bash 2.00 5.2 10-1
7 7 Mr Bob 10.00 5.8 11-1
4 4 Talkin’ Cash 4.00 6.3 12-1
2 2 Larry the Poet 30.00 6.4 12-1
1 1 You Ain’t Poppn 3.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 R Calli Kim 3.50 1 2-1
6 6 Good American (GB) 6.00 1.2 2-1
4 4 Sabalenka 4.50 3.5 7-1
10 10 Bravo Kitten 12.00 3.8 7-1
7 7 Sand and Sea 10.00 4.4 8-1
5 5 Creative Cairo 8.00 4.7 9-1
11 11 Malleymoo 10.00 5 9-1
9 9 Amani’s Image 20.00 5.9 11-1
8 8 She’s Gone 20.00 6.3 12-1
3 3 Lucy’s Cakes Fly 50.00 8.1 15-1
12 12 Stir Crazy 8.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Skratch Kat 6.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Highland Grace 6.00 SCRATCH
R Calli Kim 14 26-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.