Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Wednesday, October 18, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Velocheetah 3.00 1 2-1
7 7 Jubilant Joanie 6.00 4.1 8-1
1 1 Derby Wife 30.00 4.6 9-1
9 9 Stage Bell 3.50 4.7 9-1
3 3 Fracing Allstar 30.00 7.2 14-1
5 5 Doodle Doo 50.00 8.4 16-1
8 8 Alter the Stars 8.00 8.6 16-1
10 10 Imperator Furiosa 6.00 9 17-1
4 4 Ziva 20.00 9.7 18-1
2 2 Lady Free Will 4.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Blue Kentucky 8.00 1 2-1
5 5 The Distractor 4.00 1 2-1
3 3 Solidify 12.00 3.5 7-1
6 6 Slam Dunk Sermon 3.50 4.5 9-1
9 9 Pure Panic 10.00 5.5 10-1
8 8 Tee Burns 3.00 5.7 11-1
4 4 Franz Josef 4.50 6.1 12-1
2 2 Lykan 8.00 7.4 14-1
1 1 Couth 30.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 I Feel the Need 3.50 1 2-1
1 1 East Shore 2.50 2.7 5-1
2 2 Midnightcandystorm 15.00 3.1 6-1
7 7 Windy Bay 1.60 3.2 6-1
3 3 Steel Racer 10.00 5.7 11-1
5 5 Rosario’s Prayer 20.00 7.7 15-1
9 9 Efficacious 20.00 8 15-1
6 6 Floris 50.00 8 15-1
4 4 Catherine Blaze 8.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Marshside Mama 15.00 1 2-1
8 8 C C Cruise Control 12.00 1.8 3-1
2 2 Mustang Lady 8.00 3.3 6-1
7 7 Such Sounds 4.50 3.4 6-1
5 5 Thestral 2.00 4 7-1
3 3 Spicy Italian 3.00 4.1 8-1
4 4 Sandra D 4.00 7.8 15-1
1 1 Wits and Wagers 20.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Special Element 10.00 1 2-1
15 15 Lou’s Legacy 30.00 2.7 5-1
13 13 Rivetage 6.00 11.2 21-1
8 8 World Fair 15.00 11.8 22-1
12 12 Anthem King 5.00 11.9 23-1
11 11 Air of Defiance 3.00 12.2 23-1
7 7 So Smooth 6.00 12.5 24-1
1 1 Nyquist Frequency 15.00 12.8 24-1
4 4 Popweiser 8.00 13.3 25-1
5 5 Blue Line 10.00 13.4 25-1
6 6 Justifreak 10.00 14 26-1
10 10 Nullify 20.00 14 26-1
9 9 It’smyluckytime 8.00 14.2 27-1
14 14 Banana Plan 30.00 14.7 28-1
2 2 Yell County 30.00 15 28-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Punchbowl 0.80 1 2-1
1 1 Insignia 3.50 2 4-1
5 5 Skratch Kat 4.00 4.9 9-1
6 6 Music Street 8.00 5.1 10-1
2 2 Shezz Koldazice 15.00 5.5 10-1
3 3 Jag Warrior 12.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Our Dotsie 10.00 1 2-1
13 13 Be My Sunshine 5.00 2.9 5-1
16 16 Shoplifter 6.00 5.2 10-1
2 2 Around the Sun 20.00 5.4 10-1
14 14 Eivissa 12.00 5.6 11-1
15 15 Condone 15.00 5.8 11-1
3 3 Tituba 8.00 6 11-1
10 10 Beach Walkn 15.00 6.5 12-1
12 12 Jenny Lind 8.00 7 13-1
6 6 Yarborough 30.00 8.4 16-1
5 5 Hola Gata 2.00 9.7 18-1
7 7 Holy Foley 3.50 10.3 19-1
9 9 Mint Edition 30.00 10.6 20-1
1 1 Empirical View 6.00 11.2 21-1
8 8 Charlee O 20.00 11.4 22-1
11 11 Lakeside Music 30.00 16 30-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Catalina Crush 3.50 1 2-1
13 13 Ozone 4.00 8.1 15-1
4 4 Finish the Mission 8.00 11.9 22-1
3 3 Track Light 8.00 12.7 24-1
8 8 Sterling Honor 6.00 12.8 24-1
12 12 This Time Blue 15.00 13 25-1
9 9 We Miss Arlington 15.00 13.1 25-1
15 15 Higginsville 10.00 13.4 25-1
7 7 Knicks Storm 4.50 13.5 26-1
1 1 Atomic 15.00 13.7 26-1
5 5 Runaway Joke 20.00 14.1 27-1
10 10 Army Kid 20.00 14.2 27-1
2 2 Runnin Munnin 6.00 14.4 27-1
11 11 Karlwithanarl 12.00 15 28-1
14 14 Droptop Caddy 8.00 15 28-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.