Delta Downs Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, October 19, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Sermononthemount 6.00 1 2-1
8 8 Hard to Deny 3.50 1.8 3-1
11 11 Big Money Machine 4.00 4.5 8-1
2 2 Hot Le Roy 8.00 4.7 9-1
1 1 Mias Moonbeam 5.00 5.3 10-1
10 10 Cool Individual 10.00 6.1 11-1
3 3 Nate’s Revenge 8.00 6.2 12-1
9 9 Spheroid 15.00 6.7 13-1
4 4 Dealin’ Stelen 20.00 7.8 15-1
7 7 Temprano 20.00 9.3 17-1
5 5 Pinch Assault 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Lagoon 2.50 1 2-1
6 6 Wheels 10.00 3.3 6-1
4 4 Aux Arcs 3.50 4.4 8-1
8 8 Bordeaux Red 6.00 4.5 9-1
1 1 Valdina Dreams 15.00 5.5 10-1
2 2 Triple Red Aces 4.00 5.8 11-1
5 5 Liberty’s Hauler 8.00 6.6 12-1
7 7 Patio’s Porch 20.00 7.9 15-1
3 3 Nineteen Hundred 15.00 9.3 18-1
9 9 Wicked Tough 20.00 9.9 19-1
11 11 Directional 20.00 SCRATCH
12 12 The Boyz Priority 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Olivia G 4.00 1 2-1
4 4 Lawless Times 3.50 1.4 3-1
5 5 Lightening Mo 5.00 2.2 4-1
8 8 Sweet Alexis 5.00 3.2 6-1
9 9 Jax’s Starry Bride 20.00 4.5 8-1
2 2 Luyv 12.00 4.6 9-1
6 6 Tap Iron Fist 8.00 4.9 9-1
7 7 Flawless Takeover 8.00 6.6 12-1
10 10 Craftroom 8.00 8.8 17-1
1 1 Spooky Guitar 20.00 10.3 19-1
11 11 Sparkle City 20.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Beat the Double 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Mydealoftheday 15.00 1 2-1
3 3 Our Custom Darling 10.00 1.5 3-1
5 5 Aggie Doctor 5.00 1.7 3-1
9 9 Janisthebeauty 15.00 1.8 3-1
2 2 Twn Ms Midship 10.00 1.8 3-1
1 1 Lil Adeau 6.00 3.5 7-1
8 8 Barranca 6.00 6.5 12-1
7 7 Crypto Brave 3.50 8.2 15-1
4 4 Target Vision 2.50 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Runtoday 2.50 1 2-1
9 9 Zultan 5.00 3.6 7-1
4 4 Mustafa 15.00 4.5 8-1
10 10 Oxxon 12.00 4.6 9-1
8 8 Shut Up Man 8.00 5.4 10-1
3 3 Smart Analysis 15.00 6.5 12-1
11 11 Uncle Brad 8.00 6.5 12-1
7 7 Golden Quality 8.00 6.7 13-1
1 1 It’s a Bird 6.00 8.7 17-1
2 2 Big Ace 15.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Kurt’s Choice 4.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Pitale 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Alleva 2.50 1 2-1
1 1 Gerard 6.00 1.7 3-1
5 5 Tizhotndusty 12.00 2.3 4-1
3 3 Hail State 3.50 3.2 6-1
2 2 Mister K 8.00 3.4 6-1
7 7 In the Arch 8.00 3.7 7-1
9 9 Motataabeq 5.00 4.6 9-1
4 4 Hurts So Bad 10.00 5.5 10-1
8 8 More Like It 20.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Carpe Horseshoe 4.50 1 2-1
6 6 Waters of Merom 2.50 1.8 3-1
7 7 Tease Me Not 6.00 2.3 4-1
5 5 Cave Creek 12.00 3.8 7-1
3 3 Riobella 6.00 4.7 9-1
1 1 Lorraine’s Legacy 3.50 5.5 10-1
4 4 Forgotten Fortune 8.00 7.6 14-1
2 2 Miss Lonelyhearts 10.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Michelles Lil Star 2.50 1 2-1
3 3 That’s My Mama 5.00 3.2 6-1
5 5 Miss Priority 8.00 3.8 7-1
1 1 Seriously Sam 6.00 4 8-1
2 2 Blessed Assurance 8.00 4.7 9-1
7 7 Catcake 3.50 4.8 9-1
9 9 Cute Dinero Queen 10.00 6.6 12-1
4 4 Luminous Flight 20.00 6.9 13-1
6 6 Sweet Vidalia 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Run Away Samari 2.00 1 2-1
4 4 Jennysbigbaby 3.50 2.9 5-1
7 7 E R’s Mireya 5.00 3.5 7-1
2 2 Wheels Like Nala 10.00 5 9-1
1 1 Flying I 5.00 5.4 10-1
5 5 Share the Doe 15.00 5.5 10-1
8 8 Grace’s Vision 20.00 6.5 12-1
3 3 Don’t Blink Twice 20.00 6.7 13-1
10 10 Lil Party Crasher 20.00 7.1 13-1
6 6 Magic Gray 10.00 7.6 14-1
11 11 Sense of Heart 8.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Serena’s Serenade 20.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.