Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, October 19, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Healing Waters 3.00 1 2-1
2 2 What’s Up Bro 4.00 2.9 6-1
8 8 All Jokes Aside 20.00 3.6 7-1
5 5 Catipari 30.00 4.7 9-1
10 10 Must Be Love 2.50 5.1 10-1
9 9 Run Run Rapidash 12.00 5.8 11-1
1 1 Fabricator 20.00 6.5 12-1
7 7 Lucky Dude 6.00 6.8 13-1
4 4 Raymond 8.00 8.1 15-1
6 6 Ain’t Straight 20.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Controlled Temper 4.50 1 2-1
4 4 In Good Taste 6.00 2.8 5-1
3 3 Shespun 3.50 3.3 6-1
6 6 Gloriette 10.00 4.4 8-1
1 1 Impeccable Timing 20.00 7.4 14-1
10 10 Adeleke 8.00 7.6 14-1
12 12 Ocean Bird 10.00 8.3 16-1
7 7 Backwoods Barbie 12.00 8.9 17-1
13 13 City Shack 30.00 9.9 19-1
2 2 Windy Walk 15.00 10.1 19-1
8 8 Corkage Fee 10.00 11.8 22-1
11 11 Tappin Into Genius 30.00 12.2 23-1
5 5 Ma Rae’s Girl 8.00 13 25-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Tell Me When 8.00 1 2-1
5 5 Girl Afraid 2.00 2.6 5-1
3 3 Home Port 4.50 2.8 5-1
7 7 Condiment Girl 4.00 3.7 7-1
1 1 Mischievous Gal 5.00 3.8 7-1
4 4 Stormy Empire 20.00 4.4 8-1
6 6 Story Hour 6.00 6.2 12-1
8 8 Style 15.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Heartbreaker 6.00 1 2-1
6 6 He’s Got This 6.00 2.1 4-1
5 5 Beealea 3.00 3.5 7-1
2 2 Soul Coaxing 8.00 3.8 7-1
7 7 Sugoi 10.00 4.4 8-1
9 9 Expensive Cut 5.00 4.7 9-1
1 1 What a Country 15.00 4.9 9-1
3 3 Bird King 4.00 5.9 11-1
4 4 Gita’s Lad 20.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Into Stars 3.50 1 2-1
3 3 Lyrical Pardon 20.00 5.5 10-1
14 14 Progeny 12.00 5.6 11-1
6 6 Dr. Ray D. 8.00 6.7 13-1
12 12 Fantastical 20.00 8.1 15-1
11 11 Two Sip Sally 2.50 9.1 17-1
2 2 Makeup 4.50 9.3 18-1
1 1 Sotona 15.00 9.6 18-1
4 4 Miss Taptress 30.00 9.9 19-1
7 7 Beautiful Mischief 10.00 14.6 28-1
9 9 Save the Mischief 12.00 14.8 28-1
13 13 Walk Street 20.00 14.9 28-1
10 10 Little Miss Munny 15.00 15.3 29-1
15 15 Happy Baytown 15.00 15.5 29-1
16 16 Hamble 10.00 15.5 29-1
8 8 Shore War 15.00 16 30-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Mailman Money 8.00 1 2-1
6 6 Derby Date 4.50 2.6 5-1
8 8 Group Eighteen 10.00 3.7 7-1
4 4 Shooters Shoot 2.50 4.1 8-1
5 5 Upstriker 3.50 4.8 9-1
1 1 Lucky Boss 10.00 5.8 11-1
3 3 The Queens Jules 5.00 6.1 12-1
9 9 Call Me Midnight 12.00 7.9 15-1
7 7 Speight and Malice 30.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Mendel’s Secret 15.00 1 2-1
15 15 Grand Aspen 2.50 2 4-1
4 4 Lincoln Highway 10.00 3.5 7-1
3 3 Clyde’s Got a Gun 4.50 4.1 8-1
5 5 Endpoint 10.00 4.5 8-1
10 10 American Diamond 4.00 4.8 9-1
6 6 Sir London 6.00 5.3 10-1
9 9 Redemption Time 20.00 5.9 11-1
14 14 Double Clutch 10.00 7.8 15-1
8 8 Ten Days Later 5.00 8.3 16-1
1 1 Mackillop 5.00 9.1 17-1
13 13 Karma Director 30.00 9.4 18-1
11 11 Hardy Choice 30.00 9.9 19-1
16 16 Sherlock’s Jewel 12.00 11 21-1
12 12 Tiverton (GB) 12.00 15.2 29-1
7 7 El Ahijado 50.00 16 30-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Gamer 12.00 1 2-1
11 11 Winnemac Avenue 8.00 3.9 7-1
6 6 Honed 6.00 5.3 10-1
7 7 Glen Airy 15.00 5.5 10-1
10 10 Washington’s Union 20.00 6 11-1
3 3 Dance Some Mo 8.00 6.2 12-1
5 5 Funny Uncle 12.00 7.1 13-1
8 8 Winston Wolf 20.00 7.6 14-1
1 1 Princely 4.00 7.9 15-1
12 12 Fast Fall 30.00 9.1 17-1
4 4 Jr’s Gift 3.00 10.3 19-1
9 9 Bright Spark 8.00 12 23-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Modern Sound 6.00 1 2-1
15 15 Tipsy Runner 15.00 1.3 3-1
11 11 Unmatched 30.00 1.7 3-1
9 9 Joke Master 12.00 3.9 7-1
4 4 Wonder Wave (IRE) 2.50 4.6 9-1
12 12 Lola’s Light 10.00 4.9 9-1
10 10 Cloudwalker 8.00 5.7 11-1
3 3 Satin Blue 8.00 7.5 14-1
7 7 Copperdrop 10.00 7.7 15-1
16 16 Street View 4.50 8.2 16-1
13 13 Destiny Star 3.00 9 17-1
5 5 Hauntress 15.00 10.4 20-1
6 6 Caberneigh 30.00 11.4 21-1
1 1 Charm of the Song 4.00 12.1 23-1
14 14 Luminous Ruler 30.00 14.9 28-1
8 8 She’s a Native 30.00 16 30-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.