Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Friday, October 20, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Vitaemi 1.80 1 2-1
7 7 Ghostly Night 4.00 1.4 3-1
1 1 Donya Know It 3.00 2.3 4-1
6 6 Priddis 3.50 2.9 5-1
4 4 Caltha 6.00 3.2 6-1
2 2 Sacred Beauty 30.00 4.1 8-1
5 5 L. A. Star 20.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Liturgia 8.00 1 2-1
8 8 Tamara’s Way 8.00 3 6-1
2 2 Shes a Secret 3.00 3.2 6-1
1 1 Hot Summer Dream 6.00 6.2 12-1
4 4 Flatter Me Zen 30.00 6.5 12-1
3 3 Mahomebred 4.00 6.7 13-1
7 7 Mended We Stand 6.00 7 13-1
6 6 Ball Gown 2.50 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
12 12 Yuletide Gallop 4.00 1 2-1
9 9 Coal Miner 20.00 2.7 5-1
13 13 Who’s Snow Trouble 8.00 2.8 5-1
10 10 Jimmy the Hat 6.00 2.9 5-1
11 11 In the Numbers 3.50 3.7 7-1
15 15 Capo 12.00 3.7 7-1
2 2 Notorious Sixohtwo 15.00 4.4 8-1
3 3 Vino Fa Danza 30.00 4.7 9-1
5 5 My Brother Charlie 8.00 6.7 13-1
1 1 One Red Cent 10.00 8.2 15-1
6 6 Broadway Red 15.00 8.4 16-1
14 14 Munyhungry 10.00 8.6 16-1
7 7 Chasentheone 20.00 9.1 17-1
8 8 Tapitboy 4.50 9.4 18-1
4 4 Sting Music 12.00 13.1 25-1
16 16 Steal the Rhode 20.00 16 30-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Magnificent Mile 8.00 1 2-1
2 2 Goodasiwonswas 2.00 1.5 3-1
6 6 Camp Daddy 2.50 3.1 6-1
4 4 Hocus 4.00 4.6 9-1
1 1 O’Conner Sunset 8.00 5.4 10-1
7 7 Husker Butch 6.00 5.7 11-1
3 3 Classy Socks 12.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Muazarah 8.00 1 2-1
6 6 In a Jam 6.00 2.8 5-1
7 7 Smokey Smokey 8.00 3 6-1
12 12 Oy Vey 4.50 3.9 7-1
10 10 Izzit Midnight 30.00 6.2 12-1
14 14 Redeposit 10.00 6.5 12-1
11 11 Spirit’s Mischief 3.50 7 13-1
15 15 Drip d’Oro 15.00 7.9 15-1
2 2 Gotta Keep Him 8.00 8.5 16-1
13 13 Good Point 30.00 10.4 20-1
16 16 Higginsville 8.00 11.3 21-1
1 1 Brennan’s Honor 6.00 12.3 23-1
9 9 Chestnut Creed 15.00 12.6 24-1
8 8 Runnin’ Rocket 10.00 12.8 24-1
4 4 Non Fungible 30.00 13 25-1
3 3 Camilas Warrior 50.00 16 30-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Nordic Light 8.00 1 2-1
5 5 Commander Carl 15.00 1.1 2-1
8 8 Golden Text 20.00 1.6 3-1
9 9 Carillo 6.00 2.3 4-1
7 7 Bear Oak 2.00 2.9 5-1
2 2 Call Me Gusto 10.00 3.3 6-1
4 4 Nepal Up 4.00 3.6 7-1
3 3 Tiger Moon 3.00 5.1 10-1
6 6 Monkey Zone 30.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Shootoutthelights 1.80 1 2-1
7 7 Laura’s Charm 8.00 3.5 7-1
13 13 American Starlet 8.00 3.9 7-1
6 6 Royal County 20.00 6.2 12-1
2 2 Redifined 3.50 6.7 13-1
9 9 Four Dawn 15.00 6.8 13-1
14 14 Take Charge Chloe 20.00 7.1 13-1
1 1 Twirling Savi 10.00 7.2 14-1
3 3 Sol Hope 6.00 8.4 16-1
11 11 Frozen Solid 20.00 8.7 16-1
8 8 Trouble Making 30.00 10.2 19-1
12 12 Cora Pearl 30.00 10.3 20-1
4 4 Frango Electrico 50.00 11.4 21-1
5 5 Covenant Lady 12.00 14 26-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Poblano 3.50 1 2-1
6 6 Surely Shirley 10.00 2.8 5-1
8 8 Raging Sea 1.20 4.1 8-1
5 5 Lavish Habits 20.00 5.5 10-1
1 1 Lexa 20.00 6.5 12-1
7 7 Eivissa 15.00 7.4 14-1
2 2 Forever After All 8.00 8.9 17-1
9 9 Overindulgence 30.00 9.1 17-1
10 10 Sabra Tuff 6.00 10 19-1
4 4 Let’s Duet 15.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Easter (FR) 2.50 1 2-1
1 1 Tatanka 12.00 6.7 13-1
14 14 Brigadier General 12.00 6.9 13-1
4 4 Main Event 5.00 7 13-1
10 10 Kingmax (IRE) 8.00 7.7 15-1
2 2 Xavey Dave 12.00 8 15-1
3 3 Koolhaus 15.00 8.1 15-1
8 8 Strong Quality 3.50 8.1 15-1
11 11 Forever Souper 10.00 9.5 18-1
13 13 War Campaign 3.00 10.6 20-1
9 9 Britain’s Kitten 30.00 11.1 21-1
15 15 Warrior Johny 4.00 11.1 21-1
16 16 Search Engine 6.00 14.3 27-1
6 6 Alex Joon 15.00 14.5 27-1
5 5 Minnesota Ready 20.00 15.5 29-1
12 12 Gunton Roe 20.00 16 30-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Dual Monarchy 2.50 1 2-1
2 2 David’s Tuition 20.00 3.2 6-1
10 10 Thankgodngreyhound 15.00 4.2 8-1
3 3 Insignis 15.00 4.4 8-1
11 11 Captivated Drama 3.50 4.5 8-1
9 9 Mahoney Road 4.00 5.9 11-1
1 1 Cravensworth 20.00 7.3 14-1
6 6 Enjoyment 30.00 7.8 15-1
5 5 Pistol Or Shotgun 20.00 8.7 17-1
8 8 Hi Yah 12.00 9.2 17-1
7 7 Libertango 6.00 11 21-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.