Delta Downs Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, October 21, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 True Princess 1.60 1 2-1
7 7 Over Doer 4.00 2.4 5-1
6 6 Miss Becca 8.00 3 6-1
8 8 Highly Grand 3.50 3.6 7-1
2 2 Cinco Gal 15.00 4.3 8-1
4 4 Mariah 12.00 4.5 8-1
5 5 Warm Fuzzies 6.00 5.4 10-1
3 3 Niceproblemtohave 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Bri 3.00 1 2-1
6 6 Mean American 1.80 1.6 3-1
5 5 Ann’s Storm 4.00 2.7 5-1
3 3 Betison 5.00 3.2 6-1
2 2 Cajun Aces 8.00 5.4 10-1
7 7 Beyond d’Oro 12.00 6.7 13-1
4 4 Emmas Ruler 10.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Hymn for Carlos 3.00 1 2-1
2 2 Flat Out Runner 6.00 2.8 5-1
8 8 Gatsby’s Fortune 5.00 3.3 6-1
5 5 Native Requite 8.00 3.7 7-1
4 4 Top Priority 4.00 4.9 9-1
6 6 Secret Road 10.00 5.6 11-1
3 3 Pound Out a Deal 12.00 5.7 11-1
1 1 Magnolia Speed 15.00 6.5 12-1
7 7 Frenetic Day 12.00 6.7 13-1
10 10 Whatta Life 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Tennessee Moon 1.80 1 2-1
7 7 Lil Miss Sunshine 3.50 1.3 2-1
1 1 Summer Is Hot 6.00 4.4 8-1
5 5 Ivy Abad Girl 6.00 6.3 12-1
4 4 Finishwhatustarted 8.00 6.5 12-1
9 9 Pippa’s Prospect 12.00 6.8 13-1
8 8 Cheer Up 10.00 7.4 14-1
2 2 Preach It Girl 15.00 8.1 15-1
6 6 I’m All Mixed Up 15.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Briartown 2.00 1 2-1
4 4 Shawn’s Solving 3.00 2.7 5-1
6 6 Chenti 3.50 3.3 6-1
5 5 Nephi 5.00 3.4 7-1
7 7 Beaudean 8.00 3.6 7-1
3 3 Rocky Boy 10.00 6 11-1
1 1 Shameful Alliance 15.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Myfriendsawinner 3.00 1 2-1
6 6 Ourperfectprincess 6.00 1.1 2-1
3 3 Juliard Honor 2.00 2 4-1
2 2 Jazz Brunch 5.00 3.1 6-1
1 1 Commercial Flash 4.50 3.4 6-1
7 7 Lots of Gold 8.00 3.9 7-1
4 4 Bet On Bourbon 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Rose Palace 4.50 1 2-1
3 3 Clay’s Moon Stone 2.00 1.3 2-1
5 5 Another Hot Mess 3.00 2.1 4-1
1 1 Fired Up Tiger 6.00 2.7 5-1
2 2 Izatiz 12.00 4.4 8-1
6 6 It’sfiftyshadetime 5.00 4.5 8-1
4 4 Eileen Alexandra 10.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Pickin Ana Grinnin 6.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Alliaceous 2.50 1.2 2-1
4 4 I Bear Arms 5.00 1.5 3-1
1 1 Lutie Mo 4.50 3 6-1
10 10 Shes a Lucky Rebel 8.00 3.2 6-1
3 3 Follow the Saint 8.00 3.2 6-1
2 2 Mi Lia 10.00 5.9 11-1
7 7 Our Little Girl 20.00 6.3 12-1
6 6 Girl Thirsty 15.00 6.3 12-1
5 5 Run Natalie Run 12.00 SCRATCH
12 12 She’s Gone d’Wild 12.00 SCRATCH
11 11 World War 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Foolish Steve 4.00 1 2-1
7 7 Eisenstaedt 1.80 1.5 3-1
4 4 Eliot Ness 8.00 1.6 3-1
3 3 Duke of Blue Ridge 5.00 2.5 5-1
5 5 Izzy’s Baby Boy 6.00 3.2 6-1
1 1 Get Witt Gone 10.00 3.7 7-1
9 9 Mamacallmeboo 15.00 7.1 13-1
2 2 Charming Charlie 12.00 8.2 15-1
8 8 Vim and Vigor 15.00 9 17-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.