Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, October 21, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Mac Daddy Too 1.60 1 2-1
7 7 Thealligatorhunter 6.00 1.6 3-1
3 3 Vulcan 4.00 2.2 4-1
6 6 Comiskey Park 4.50 3.3 6-1
1 1 Johnny Unleashed 30.00 4.6 9-1
2 2 Call Me Midnight 20.00 5.1 10-1
4 4 Cold as Hell 2.50 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Dancing Nancy 1.20 1 2-1
3 3 Ready for Trouble 6.00 2.3 4-1
4 4 Fasta Lavista Baby 8.00 4.5 8-1
8 8 Wreck It Ruby 30.00 6.2 12-1
7 7 Red Sun Dress 6.00 7.3 14-1
9 9 Lindsey 8.00 8.1 15-1
1 1 Wind Chasin 20.00 8.9 17-1
16 16 Margaret’s Lady 12.00 9.4 18-1
2 2 Thirsty Accountant 30.00 9.8 19-1
6 6 Redheadedstranger 30.00 10.6 20-1
11 11 Loveya Loveya More 20.00 10.9 21-1
15 15 Ladle 20.00 11.7 22-1
10 10 Pleasingly 15.00 12 23-1
12 12 Carpe Ostento (GB) 15.00 13.3 25-1
13 13 Serene Waters 6.00 13.9 26-1
14 14 Talkin in Cursive 20.00 16 30-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Bourbon Fever 6.00 1 2-1
16 16 Runandscore 8.00 3.1 6-1
4 4 Spanish Doubloon 10.00 3.3 6-1
12 12 Back to Reality 5.00 4.1 8-1
15 15 Amanwalksintoabar 10.00 5.4 10-1
11 11 Shockwave 12.00 6.2 12-1
5 5 Solevo 10.00 6.7 13-1
1 1 Charted 12.00 6.9 13-1
2 2 Kingmaker 1.60 6.9 13-1
6 6 The Big Mozz 30.00 9.9 19-1
14 14 Triple Option 15.00 10.2 19-1
10 10 God of Wine 15.00 10.3 20-1
3 3 Mr. Commander 20.00 10.7 20-1
8 8 Colonel Barton 15.00 10.9 21-1
9 9 Bad Boy for Life 20.00 11.5 22-1
13 13 Feeling Free 10.00 16 30-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Oeuvre 4.00 1 2-1
8 8 Viareggio (IRE) 2.00 3.3 6-1
3 3 Sweet Dani Girl 4.50 4.4 8-1
4 4 Adaay In Asia (GB) 3.00 5.9 11-1
9 9 Butterbean 4.00 6.5 12-1
5 5 Braganza 15.00 6.5 12-1
1 1 Do You Love Me 15.00 6.7 13-1
7 7 Takntothecleaners 8.00 7.8 15-1
6 6 Lady Hideaway 12.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Irina’s Charm 10.00 1 2-1
9 9 Sweet Gal of Mine 4.00 1.9 3-1
2 2 Best of All 6.00 2.2 4-1
13 13 Bernar Mosa 15.00 3.2 6-1
8 8 Denim and Pearls 6.00 3.8 7-1
6 6 Aunt Fannie 3.50 4.4 8-1
1 1 Bedazzle ‘Em 12.00 5 9-1
4 4 Maxisuperfly 12.00 5.1 10-1
5 5 Cleopatra Selene 20.00 7.7 15-1
7 7 Marco Sunset 10.00 11.1 21-1
11 11 Little Jamie 15.00 11.8 22-1
14 14 City Shack 30.00 13.1 25-1
15 15 In Just My Heels 20.00 13.1 25-1
12 12 Shezthefactor 10.00 14 26-1
10 10 Summerintahoe 30.00 15 28-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Perryville S.) – Perryville S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Dr. Venkman 3.50 1 2-1
6 6 Loyal Company 12.00 2.3 4-1
1 1 Verifying 1.00 2.5 5-1
3 3 Post Time 15.00 3.5 7-1
2 2 Confidence Game 4.50 4.5 9-1
4 4 Raise Cain 4.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
12 12 Create Trouble 12.00 1 2-1
8 8 Mount Craig 4.00 4.5 8-1
11 11 Alexander Helios 15.00 4.9 9-1
3 3 Dissolved 10.00 5.8 11-1
14 14 Game Warden 12.00 6.7 13-1
2 2 Single Dot Yaht 8.00 6.9 13-1
9 9 Furious Anger 3.50 8.8 17-1
1 1 Game Keeper 20.00 9 17-1
5 5 Malibu Springs 6.00 11.4 21-1
10 10 My Sanctuary 20.00 11.6 22-1
6 6 Ben Franklin 4.50 12 23-1
7 7 Royal Court 30.00 12.4 23-1
13 13 Ancient Man 50.00 13.6 26-1
4 4 Perfect Upstart 30.00 14 26-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Haughty 4.00 1 2-1
7 7 Sinfiltre 4.50 4.1 8-1
3 3 Not So Close 6.00 4.2 8-1
10 10 Walkathon 8.00 5.9 11-1
6 6 Seisai (IRE) 10.00 6.6 12-1
8 8 Sister Lou Ann 6.00 7.2 14-1
1 1 Lovely Princess 5.00 7.7 14-1
14 14 Fragrant 20.00 8.3 16-1
11 11 Fancy Martini 15.00 8.3 16-1
4 4 Ever Smart 20.00 8.4 16-1
12 12 Strong Odor 30.00 9.8 18-1
5 5 Poca Mucha 15.00 9.9 19-1
2 2 Bali Belle 20.00 10 19-1
13 13 Fast and Feminine 30.00 14 26-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Lexus Raven Run S.) – Lexus Raven Run S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Dazzling Blue 4.50 1 2-1
7 7 Alva Starr 2.00 3.5 7-1
8 8 Lady Radler 5.00 4.2 8-1
2 2 Simply Stated 10.00 4.7 9-1
4 4 Vahva 3.00 5.3 10-1
3 3 Nom de Plume 20.00 7.3 14-1
5 5 Apple Picker 15.00 7.4 14-1
1 1 Lily Poo 20.00 7.7 15-1
9 9 Ancient Peace 10.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Axthelm 3.50 1 2-1
10 10 Gregory’s Pride 10.00 3.1 6-1
1 1 Willtorun 8.00 4.6 9-1
2 2 Legal Attack (GB) 15.00 5 9-1
11 11 Fauci 2.00 5.3 10-1
4 4 Zatip 15.00 5.7 11-1
8 8 Counterstrike 5.00 5.8 11-1
7 7 B D Valeski 8.00 6.9 13-1
6 6 Of the Moment 20.00 9.6 18-1
3 3 Zoombie 30.00 9.9 19-1
9 9 Samburu (GB) 20.00 11 21-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.