Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, October 22, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Midnite Lumberjack 4.50 1 2-1
4 4 Title Contender 3.00 2.4 5-1
6 6 Town Hall 2.00 3.1 6-1
5 5 This Time Blue 12.00 3.5 7-1
1 1 Stone Harbor 8.00 3.7 7-1
8 8 Tis Charming 8.00 5.6 10-1
7 7 T B Twelve Always 6.00 5.7 11-1
3 3 Footprint 15.00 5.9 11-1
Stone Harbor 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Sassy Walker 6.00 1 2-1
5 5 Colette’s Joy 4.00 1.5 3-1
4 4 Flashy Lass 1.80 2.3 4-1
2 2 Medaglia Forever 2.50 3 6-1
3 3 Stagflation 5.00 4.7 9-1
6 6 Perceptive 20.00 6.3 12-1
7 7 Misintention 15.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Ethical Judgement 1.60 1 2-1
5 5 Allege 6.00 2.2 4-1
1 1 Koufax 2.50 4 8-1
4 4 Devil Vision 12.00 4.9 9-1
6 6 The Reds 3.50 4.9 9-1
2 2 Derby Code 12.00 6.6 13-1
7 7 Icarus 15.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Belle of the Ball 1.80 1 2-1
9 9 Teshima 8.00 1.8 3-1
8 8 Mamba Out 12.00 4.5 8-1
10 10 Mrs. Speaker 15.00 4.5 9-1
6 6 Chanel Point 6.00 4.7 9-1
2 2 Birdie Rose 8.00 5.2 10-1
4 4 Insightful Miss 15.00 5.9 11-1
5 5 Soulful Tara 10.00 6.2 12-1
1 1 My Best Day Ever 3.50 6.4 12-1
3 3 Lady Robo 20.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Marissa’s Lady 12.00 1 2-1
1 1 Top Gun Girl 5.00 1.2 2-1
2 2 Carimba 4.00 1.9 4-1
9 9 Goin’ Good 3.50 2.2 4-1
3 3 All That Magic 6.00 2.5 5-1
10 10 Opening Buzz 10.00 2.8 5-1
5 5 Current Climate 8.00 4.4 8-1
8 8 Querobin Dourada 8.00 4.6 9-1
4 4 Whiskey and Rye 20.00 6 11-1
11 11 Lady Goldstart 15.00 6.1 12-1
7 7 Miner’s Queen 20.00 6.3 12-1
Carimba 12 23-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Moreau 5.00 1 2-1
4 4 Leading Contender 1.40 3.8 7-1
2 2 Grand Aspen 6.00 4.8 9-1
3 3 Redeemer 12.00 5.8 11-1
7 7 Black Rain 2.00 5.9 11-1
5 5 Escapologist 10.00 6.8 13-1
6 6 Seeking Unity 30.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Rood And Riddle Dowager S.) – Rood And Riddle Dowager S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Transient (GB) 3.00 1 2-1
5 5 Personal Best 4.00 1.4 3-1
3 3 Vergara 1.80 2 4-1
1 1 Henrietta Topham 20.00 3.2 6-1
8 8 Lovely Princess 8.00 3.5 7-1
4 4 Be Up 20.00 4.4 8-1
7 7 Loved Reiko 12.00 7.8 15-1
6 6 Romagna Mia (GB) 6.00 8.4 16-1
2 2 Viva La Red 30.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
16 16 Shakin Loose 10.00 1 2-1
7 7 Ethan Energy 4.00 4.3 8-1
6 6 Skelly Road 6.00 5.6 11-1
1 1 Phantom Speed 10.00 5.9 11-1
4 4 Call Protection 4.50 6 11-1
2 2 Legalize 6.00 6.2 12-1
11 11 Agoo 5.00 6.4 12-1
13 13 Empire’s Classic 10.00 6.4 12-1
15 15 King Anthony 15.00 6.9 13-1
9 9 Linebacker 15.00 8.3 16-1
10 10 Maintain 30.00 8.7 16-1
5 5 Mystik Dan 6.00 9.1 17-1
8 8 Manfredi 30.00 9.2 17-1
3 3 Droptop Caddy 20.00 9.3 18-1
14 14 No Judgment 8.00 9.9 19-1
12 12 Goldentown 20.00 10.3 19-1
Manfredi 17 32-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Hurricane Debbie 15.00 1 2-1
1 1 Proud Mary 10.00 1.2 2-1
11 11 Dulcia 15.00 4.5 9-1
9 9 Empire of My Own 10.00 5.3 10-1
13 13 My Sweet Affair 3.50 5.5 10-1
5 5 Just a Care (IRE) 4.00 6.7 13-1
8 8 D’oro Street 20.00 6.9 13-1
6 6 All I Want Is You 8.00 7.4 14-1
12 12 Firing Bullets 12.00 7.7 14-1
14 14 Up to Something 20.00 9.4 18-1
4 4 Corner Kick 15.00 9.6 18-1
3 3 Queen of the Mud (IRE) 3.00 9.7 18-1
10 10 Get Twisted 6.00 10 19-1
15 15 Devine Charger 4.50 12.9 24-1
7 7 Jennifer My Love 12.00 13.9 26-1
16 16 Kendal Grace 30.00 16 30-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.