Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, October 28, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 City of Clouds 3.50 1 2-1
6 6 Roman Giant 15.00 1.5 3-1
8 8 Dreaming of Smarty 1.80 1.7 3-1
7 7 Born Flawless 2.50 2.9 6-1
4 4 Jewelstown 10.00 3 6-1
1 1 Cox Canyon 20.00 3.3 6-1
2 2 Bruce Banner 15.00 3.7 7-1
3 3 Line to Gain 6.00 4.4 8-1
City of Clouds 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Lat Long 2.50 1 2-1
13 13 Creek 10.00 3 6-1
8 8 Publius 4.00 3.1 6-1
3 3 Raguel 8.00 3.8 7-1
6 6 Transcendental 8.00 4.6 9-1
2 2 Disattached 6.00 5.2 10-1
14 14 I’m Your Man 15.00 5.6 11-1
15 15 Buffoon (FR) 6.00 5.7 11-1
11 11 Coastal Brink 15.00 5.9 11-1
9 9 Polar Bear Plunge 15.00 6.2 12-1
1 1 Fort Thomas 12.00 7 13-1
10 10 Calon Lan 30.00 7.1 13-1
4 4 Rocketeightyeight 10.00 7.2 14-1
5 5 J Bird Time 15.00 7.5 14-1
16 16 Chaperone 8.00 7.9 15-1
12 12 Battle of Dover 20.00 9.5 18-1
Buffoon (FR) 17 32-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Bromley 8.00 1 2-1
2 2 Promise Me a Ride 6.00 2.7 5-1
3 3 Dubyuhnell 2.50 2.8 5-1
6 6 King Ice 4.00 5 10-1
7 7 Curly Jack 3.50 5.4 10-1
1 1 Tahoe Run 20.00 7 13-1
5 5 Denington 3.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Nikki M P 12.00 1 2-1
10 10 Insensitive 4.50 1.7 3-1
11 11 Kid’s Last Laugh 10.00 1.7 3-1
9 9 Crushed Ice 8.00 2.3 4-1
12 12 Howl 8.00 2.5 5-1
1 1 Musical Prayer 6.00 3 6-1
5 5 Rubia 6.00 3.6 7-1
7 7 Bourbon to Blame 15.00 3.8 7-1
8 8 Adiva 30.00 4.6 9-1
4 4 Foxfire 3.50 5.3 10-1
13 13 Rita’s Onthe Beach 12.00 5.4 10-1
2 2 A Dollar a Day 30.00 5.5 10-1
15 15 Port Townsend 15.00 6.8 13-1
3 3 Rare Affair 15.00 7 13-1
14 14 Alwaysgototheparty 30.00 7.8 15-1
Howl 16 30-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
15 15 Baba Voss 3.50 1 2-1
11 11 Truly Quality 4.50 3 6-1
9 9 Clever Thought 2.50 6.2 12-1
3 3 Spirit Maker 6.00 7 13-1
4 4 Horace Mann 10.00 7.4 14-1
8 8 Jungfrau 8.00 7.5 14-1
14 14 St. Elmo 6.00 9 17-1
13 13 Kigali 20.00 10.2 19-1
6 6 Just a Photo 30.00 10.3 20-1
5 5 Hilliard 3.50 12.1 23-1
2 2 Fleet of Hoof 30.00 12.1 23-1
7 7 Our Dream Rye’d 15.00 13 25-1
1 1 Maasai Warrior 20.00 14.5 27-1
16 16 Karma Director 30.00 14.8 28-1
10 10 Boco 50.00 14.9 28-1
12 12 Bright Spark 20.00 16 30-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Bowman Mill S.) – Bowman Mill S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Patriot Spirit 8.00 1 2-1
7 7 Cowes 10.00 1.4 3-1
4 4 Glengarry 6.00 1.5 3-1
2 2 Valentine Candy 3.00 1.9 4-1
1 1 Normandy Hero 2.50 2.9 5-1
9 9 Sweet Soddy J 30.00 3.1 6-1
8 8 Maycocks Bay 8.00 3.8 7-1
3 3 Royal Slipper 4.00 4.5 8-1
6 6 Market Street 20.00 4.8 9-1
Glengarry 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Pro Oxidant 8.00 1 2-1
2 2 Traegar 3.00 2 4-1
1 1 Fortin Hill 6.00 3.9 7-1
9 9 O Besos 10.00 4.2 8-1
6 6 Doctor Oscar 4.50 4.8 9-1
5 5 Surly Furious 10.00 7 13-1
4 4 Chasing Time 6.00 7.1 13-1
10 10 Caddo River 15.00 7.3 14-1
8 8 Top Gunner 12.00 8.8 17-1
3 3 Payne 8.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Bryan Station S.) – Bryan Station S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Appraise (IRE) 8.00 1 2-1
1 1 Talk of the Nation 2.50 1 2-1
9 9 More Than Looks 1.80 2 4-1
2 2 Gigante 12.00 3 6-1
3 3 Dude N Colorado (GB) 15.00 4.5 8-1
5 5 Mo Stash 12.00 6.1 11-1
6 6 Runaway Storm 20.00 6.1 11-1
4 4 Smokey Mandate 4.50 7.5 14-1
7 7 Worthington 20.00 8.9 17-1
8 8 Santorini 30.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Hagyard Fayette S.) – Hagyard Fayette S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
12 12 Best Actor 10.00 1 2-1
11 11 Dash Attack 8.00 5.9 11-1
5 5 Twilight Blue 15.00 6.1 12-1
1 1 Film Star 6.00 6.2 12-1
8 8 Law Professor 8.00 6.8 13-1
9 9 O’Connor (CHI) 5.00 6.9 13-1
4 4 Giant Game 8.00 8.1 15-1
10 10 Trademark 4.50 9.5 18-1
7 7 Il Miracolo 6.00 9.7 18-1
3 3 King Fury 20.00 10.4 20-1
14 14 Time for Trouble 20.00 11 21-1
2 2 Happy American 15.00 11.9 22-1
13 13 Gasoline 20.00 11.9 22-1
6 6 Speed Bias 20.00 14 26-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
16 16 Real Men Violin 2.00 1 2-1
8 8 Act of Mutiny 3.00 3.5 7-1
4 4 Time Song 10.00 4.5 8-1
2 2 Sheriff Joe 8.00 6.3 12-1
15 15 Phreddie Mac 12.00 7.1 13-1
6 6 Domingo 12.00 7.7 14-1
11 11 Vivaldi 4.00 8.2 16-1
9 9 Veracruzin 20.00 8.8 17-1
1 1 Trikari 15.00 9.3 17-1
12 12 Mo Caliente 6.00 9.9 19-1
5 5 Deadpan 4.50 12.2 23-1
14 14 Tapitoro 15.00 12.6 24-1
13 13 Uno Mas Bourbon 8.00 13.4 25-1
3 3 Wauhatchie 20.00 14.5 27-1
10 10 Gotta Have Dreams 30.00 15.9 30-1
7 7 Merlin’s Magic 30.00 16 30-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.