Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, October 29, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Bourbon Boss 3.00 1 2-1
11 11 Spin the Boulevard 8.00 4.4 8-1
15 15 King Anthony 12.00 4.6 9-1
10 10 Run Jalen Run 3.50 4.8 9-1
14 14 Wish Carefully 10.00 7 13-1
16 16 Surf City 12.00 7.5 14-1
4 4 Bibi Boss 12.00 7.6 14-1
2 2 Mohawk River 12.00 8.4 16-1
7 7 Wistucky 20.00 9.1 17-1
12 12 Gagliardi 8.00 9.4 18-1
5 5 Lucky Jeremy 10.00 10.6 20-1
1 1 Henro 10.00 10.7 20-1
3 3 Coalpower 10.00 10.9 21-1
9 9 Pretty Fast 30.00 12 23-1
13 13 Dancing Noah 20.00 13.5 26-1
8 8 Cloth of Gold 20.00 13.6 26-1
17 32-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Linzer 3.00 1 2-1
2 2 Bowstreet 6.00 5.3 10-1
8 8 Burgundy Royale 15.00 5.5 10-1
4 4 Orange Diablo 2.50 5.9 11-1
3 3 Cookn Wit Catman 8.00 6.2 12-1
11 11 Good Lord 10.00 6.7 13-1
10 10 Ozone 5.00 7.5 14-1
6 6 Puckster 20.00 8.4 16-1
9 9 Empire’s Classic 15.00 8.7 16-1
7 7 Bye Bye Liam 15.00 10.5 20-1
5 5 He’s Elusive 20.00 11 21-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Blue Squall 4.00 1 2-1
7 7 Mugen 4.50 1.8 3-1
9 9 Clear Voice 5.00 4.1 8-1
16 16 Mink’s Palace 12.00 4.4 8-1
11 11 Coastal Invasion 3.50 4.9 9-1
10 10 Chilled 8.00 4.9 9-1
15 15 Figgy 12.00 5.7 11-1
4 4 Oh My Mia 12.00 6 11-1
3 3 Legal Deceiver 12.00 6.4 12-1
1 1 Mischievousness 20.00 6.4 12-1
5 5 Dancing Princess 15.00 9.5 18-1
8 8 Tanya Showers 12.00 12.5 24-1
14 14 Moenchanted 15.00 13 25-1
13 13 Bernar Mosa 15.00 13.7 26-1
2 2 Sintra 20.00 14.5 27-1
12 12 Pink Connection 15.00 16 30-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
13 13 Luz Divina 2.00 1 2-1
10 10 Big Dreamer 6.00 1.9 4-1
12 12 Toasted Roll 8.00 3.3 6-1
15 15 Magic Gathering 15.00 6.5 12-1
8 8 I’m a Mess 4.50 7.5 14-1
9 9 Turino 3.50 7.6 14-1
2 2 Tazawako (JPN) 10.00 7.7 15-1
6 6 Yammy Yammy Bella 12.00 9.3 18-1
1 1 Speak Up 12.00 10.6 20-1
3 3 Willowy 20.00 10.9 21-1
4 4 Roselee May 10.00 11.9 22-1
11 11 Without Cause 4.00 12.2 23-1
14 14 Leisure Time 15.00 13 25-1
16 16 Montclair Road 15.00 14.2 27-1
7 7 Marshamarshamarsha 30.00 15.4 29-1
5 5 Yaree D Tat 30.00 16 30-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Mo’ Spresso 6.00 1 2-1
4 4 Real Men Violin 4.00 1 2-1
1 1 Tennessee 4.50 2.8 5-1
2 2 Track Phantom 6.00 4.3 8-1
6 6 Bourbon’s Fault 10.00 4.9 9-1
3 3 Beyond Stoked 20.00 5.6 11-1
5 5 Cash Only 12.00 7.5 14-1
12 12 Mo Rhodes 15.00 8.3 16-1
13 13 Unreasonable 10.00 9.1 17-1
11 11 Top Gun Rocket 5.00 9.6 18-1
8 8 Resilience 5.00 11.8 22-1
9 9 Penrod 20.00 11.9 22-1
7 7 High Enough 30.00 13 25-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Mya’s Halo 6.00 1 2-1
3 3 Hidden Class 3.00 3.8 7-1
9 9 Our Keepsake 12.00 4.9 9-1
7 7 Asternia 12.00 6.1 11-1
6 6 Sharp Tune 4.50 7.7 15-1
8 8 Zadorsky 8.00 8.3 16-1
11 11 Barbratina 4.00 8.4 16-1
10 10 Take Charge Babe 12.00 8.5 16-1
5 5 Regal Rumor 12.00 9.1 17-1
4 4 Done Enough 15.00 10.8 20-1
1 1 Krickle 12.00 11 21-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Snead 3.00 1 2-1
13 13 British Sea 5.00 3.1 6-1
8 8 Honky Tonk Highway 6.00 7.6 14-1
2 2 Agapee Mou 20.00 7.7 15-1
1 1 Curlin Gunner 15.00 8 15-1
3 3 Le Gris 10.00 9.3 18-1
14 14 Evening News 15.00 9.8 19-1
4 4 Numero Siete 4.00 9.9 19-1
9 9 Farm Team 10.00 10 19-1
11 11 Creek 8.00 11.1 21-1
16 16 Midnight Maestro 20.00 12.8 24-1
5 5 Dirbas 8.00 13.2 25-1
12 12 Luke 12.00 13.4 25-1
10 10 Phenomenal Dream 15.00 14 26-1
15 15 Who’s the King 20.00 15.3 29-1
7 7 Speedtail 20.00 16 30-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Rags To Riches S.) – Rags To Riches S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 V V’s Dream 1.20 1 2-1
7 7 Gin Gin 4.50 1.9 3-1
2 2 Floored 10.00 1.9 4-1
1 1 Candy Landy 10.00 1.9 4-1
4 4 West Sunset 8.00 3.8 7-1
5 5 Shimmering Allure 6.00 4.5 9-1
6 6 Twirling Good Time 4.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Iridescent 6.00 1 2-1
2 2 Steeler Mischief 20.00 1.1 2-1
6 6 Otto the Conqueror 4.00 1.4 3-1
5 5 Call Me Andy 5.00 2.1 4-1
13 13 Molly’s Town 3.50 2.2 4-1
11 11 Epic Battle 10.00 2.3 4-1
1 1 Just Steel 3.00 4.5 8-1
8 8 Sponge Bath 8.00 5.6 11-1
10 10 Baytown Chatterbox 12.00 7.4 14-1
3 3 Andy’s Candy 8.00 8.9 17-1
9 9 Group Ticket 30.00 10.3 20-1
4 4 Beaudacious Colton 30.00 11.8 22-1
12 12 Honor Marie 15.00 13 25-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Street Sense S.) – Street Sense S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Liberal Arts 8.00 1 2-1
1 1 Generous Tipper 3.50 1.7 3-1
4 4 Moonlight 2.50 1.9 4-1
6 6 Informed Patriot 5.00 2.4 5-1
3 3 Northern Flame 4.00 3.1 6-1
2 2 Gettysburg Address 10.00 3.6 7-1
7 7 Barksdale 20.00 6.6 12-1
5 5 Parchment Party 5.00 6.8 13-1
Liberal Arts 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Sassy Princess 4.50 1 2-1
11 11 Lady Moscato 3.50 1.1 2-1
8 8 Arijana’s Pearl 12.00 1.5 3-1
1 1 My Favorite Girl 6.00 3.3 6-1
15 15 Churning Berni 12.00 4 8-1
5 5 C’Est Cheese 15.00 5.5 10-1
12 12 Playback 10.00 5.8 11-1
13 13 West Omaha 5.00 8.2 16-1
6 6 Lookster 8.00 8.5 16-1
14 14 Paradise Lane 4.00 9.1 17-1
2 2 Winsome Beauty 15.00 9.4 18-1
10 10 Pin Up Betty 8.00 12 23-1
16 16 Bang Bang Fury 5.00 13.2 25-1
9 9 Perfect Shot 5.00 13.8 26-1
7 7 Foreseen 15.00 14 27-1
3 3 Aldora 20.00 16 30-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.