Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Wednesday, November 1, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Runningforjoy 2.50 1 2-1
3 3 Hero’s Medal 0.80 1.1 2-1
7 7 Funstruck 15.00 3 6-1
1 1 Texas Pride 12.00 3.9 7-1
4 4 Surface to Air 10.00 6.6 12-1
6 6 We Will Conquer 6.00 6.7 13-1
5 5 Fear of Union 10.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Platinum Ghost 6.00 1 2-1
1 1 Punctuality 3.00 1.1 2-1
2 2 Invasive 12.00 2.2 4-1
5 5 Rewire 2.00 4.3 8-1
3 3 Fire Bryan 4.00 5.5 10-1
6 6 P K Wood 10.00 5.8 11-1
4 4 Tropic Storm 5.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Smokin Richie 10.00 1 2-1
4 4 Under the Gun 3.00 4.7 9-1
7 7 Best of Greeley 2.00 4.9 9-1
6 6 Improbable Story 15.00 6.9 13-1
2 2 Hillbilly Logic 15.00 6.9 13-1
5 5 Mo’s Mojo 2.50 7.2 14-1
8 8 Rikio 15.00 7.2 14-1
1 1 Steinbeck 10.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Wreck It Ruby 6.00 1 2-1
15 15 Run Run Rabbit 15.00 2.5 5-1
2 2 Ladle 6.00 2.5 5-1
12 12 Whatta World 3.50 3.7 7-1
6 6 Talkin in Cursive 15.00 3.9 7-1
14 14 Grace and Freedom 12.00 5.3 10-1
3 3 Prix 20.00 5.9 11-1
5 5 Collier 20.00 6 11-1
10 10 Fully Entitled 4.50 6.7 13-1
9 9 Hot Mocha 10.00 7.6 14-1
4 4 Miss Claudette 15.00 7.8 15-1
13 13 Golden Lake 6.00 9.1 17-1
7 7 Interpolly 8.00 9.2 17-1
16 16 Spite Lite 8.00 9.5 18-1
8 8 Brown as a Biscuit 6.00 9.8 18-1
11 11 Flattering Heart 12.00 11.1 21-1
Grace and Freedom 17 32-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 My Lily Mae 5.00 1 2-1
7 7 Dream On Stormy 10.00 3.8 7-1
5 5 Going the Distance 3.50 4.8 9-1
9 9 Theroanrunner 2.50 5.7 11-1
6 6 Soul Heir 20.00 5.9 11-1
10 10 Violet Flame 15.00 7 13-1
1 1 Lipochrome 15.00 7.3 14-1
12 12 Sickle Dance 5.00 7.9 15-1
8 8 Kick a Rhyme (IRE) 4.00 8.1 15-1
13 13 Tidal Tactics 10.00 8.9 17-1
4 4 Classic Claire 15.00 9.5 18-1
14 14 Candy Bar 4.00 11.3 21-1
11 11 Alwaysgototheparty 20.00 11.8 22-1
2 2 Mo Lantern 8.00 14 26-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Enough Already 5.00 1 2-1
6 6 Vigano 8.00 1.7 3-1
9 9 Speed Institute 6.00 2.1 4-1
1 1 Mo Hope 8.00 2.7 5-1
3 3 Smoke Wagon 6.00 3.8 7-1
7 7 Chadron 10.00 7.3 14-1
8 8 Barnstorming 2.00 7.6 14-1
4 4 Beaumont Red 12.00 8 15-1
5 5 Pineland 10.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
12 12 Motown Mika 15.00 1 2-1
6 6 Jackie’s Spirit 12.00 3.1 6-1
9 9 Mean Sue 12.00 4 8-1
14 14 Magna Massa 5.00 4.1 8-1
2 2 Caly Bali 20.00 4.8 9-1
4 4 In Color 6.00 5.6 11-1
3 3 Belperron 4.50 6.5 12-1
13 13 Royal Blood 10.00 7 13-1
11 11 Argumental 3.50 7.1 13-1
7 7 Filly Crystal 15.00 7.8 15-1
8 8 Pillbox 4.00 8.6 16-1
10 10 Mazoku 20.00 10.1 19-1
5 5 Summer of Mischief 15.00 11.6 22-1
1 1 Weather Map 6.00 14 26-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Junipermarshmallow 2.50 1 2-1
6 6 Mo Bills 4.00 3.3 6-1
4 4 Nom de Plume 10.00 4.7 9-1
7 7 Watch This Birdie 4.00 4.8 9-1
2 2 Strikingly Spun 3.00 5 9-1
5 5 Essaouira 8.00 5.3 10-1
1 1 Bolivie (IRE) 5.00 6.8 13-1
9 9 Nomadic Pride 3.00 7.4 14-1
8 8 Goldcrest 3.50 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Huntress for Hire 3.00 1 2-1
5 5 Call Again 3.50 1.3 2-1
3 3 Secret Statement 15.00 2.2 4-1
1 1 Amber Cascade 4.00 4.6 9-1
9 9 Her Ladyship 15.00 5.1 10-1
7 7 Sultry Lass 5.00 5.3 10-1
6 6 Wanda Susie Doozy 20.00 5.9 11-1
8 8 Up to Something 20.00 6.8 13-1
2 2 Shoplifter 4.00 7.1 13-1
10 10 Votary 20.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Quiet Rush 4.00 1 2-1
3 3 Master Switch 15.00 2.9 5-1
9 9 Waldrip 6.00 4 8-1
6 6 Pretty Fast 15.00 4.4 8-1
8 8 Thezelenskyyfactor 5.00 4.9 9-1
4 4 Performance Plus 20.00 7.3 14-1
10 10 Quebrancho 12.00 8.1 15-1
1 1 Honest Opinion 2.00 8.8 17-1
11 11 This Time Blue 12.00 9.5 18-1
2 2 I’m Your Man 8.00 11 21-1
5 5 Quencio 20.00 11 21-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.