Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, November 2, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Tone Elise 4.00 1 2-1
7 7 Lost Bikini 3.50 1.5 3-1
3 3 Sunday Grace 4.50 3.9 7-1
4 4 Keen Contender 3.00 4.3 8-1
1 1 Free Time 5.00 4.3 8-1
5 5 Recognize Me 5.00 5.1 10-1
6 6 Commanders Palace 10.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Sharp Flame 4.00 1 2-1
8 8 Sakura Sky 4.50 1.1 2-1
2 2 Lost Love 5.00 1.4 3-1
5 5 Babe in the Woods 5.00 1.5 3-1
7 7 Interception 3.50 3.4 6-1
1 1 Scarlet Miss 6.00 6.5 12-1
3 3 Vino From Ernies 12.00 8 15-1
4 4 Hush It Honey 15.00 9 17-1
9 9 Parkington 15.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Faithful King 5.00 1 2-1
5 5 Dog Red 2.50 1.7 3-1
7 7 Carmichael 2.00 3 6-1
2 2 Prince of Roses 6.00 3.3 6-1
1 1 El Franco 5.00 4.4 8-1
6 6 Mr. Peterkin 8.00 4.9 9-1
4 4 Monkey Zone 15.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Tempting Lady 3.50 1 2-1
4 4 Crazy Cami 2.00 1 2-1
10 10 Mixer 3.00 4.1 8-1
6 6 Margaret’s Lady 12.00 4.8 9-1
5 5 Midnight Angel 15.00 4.9 9-1
1 1 Tale of La Bee 10.00 5.4 10-1
7 7 Modarosa 10.00 5.6 11-1
9 9 She’s a Shopper 12.00 6.5 12-1
8 8 Silvery Moon 12.00 6.8 13-1
2 2 Bright Lady Day 20.00 7.9 15-1
Mixer 11 21-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Supremely 4.50 1 2-1
9 9 Balsa 6.00 1.4 3-1
6 6 What a Blast 3.00 1.7 3-1
4 4 Fan the Fire 4.00 1.8 3-1
5 5 Master of Arms 3.50 2.4 5-1
7 7 Rivoli 12.00 3.9 7-1
2 2 Power Alley 10.00 5.8 11-1
1 1 Gunner Bay 15.00 8.9 17-1
8 8 Sound Doctrine 15.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Fair Dinkum 3.00 1 2-1
5 5 Chanceux 6.00 2.8 5-1
3 3 English Tavern 2.00 4.2 8-1
10 10 Tiwanaku 3.00 4.4 8-1
6 6 Alex Joon 4.50 4.6 9-1
1 1 Pine Knoll 10.00 6.8 13-1
7 7 Franz Josef 12.00 7.1 13-1
4 4 Tartufo 12.00 8.4 16-1
9 9 February Son 12.00 9.6 18-1
2 2 Native Thunder 15.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Candy Lover 3.00 1 2-1
16 16 Plagne Champagne 6.00 2.9 6-1
5 5 Cruise Missile 4.50 4.6 9-1
13 13 Silver Rose 2.50 7.8 15-1
8 8 Union Mist 6.00 11 21-1
11 11 Mink’s Palace 5.00 11.8 22-1
1 1 Just a Coed 8.00 13.2 25-1
14 14 Viable 8.00 13.3 25-1
15 15 Freeburn 10.00 14.4 27-1
3 3 Figgy 12.00 14.9 28-1
9 9 Quimichis 12.00 14.9 28-1
2 2 Lemon Muffin 12.00 15 28-1
4 4 Speighter Woman 15.00 15.4 29-1
6 6 Moenchanted 15.00 15.7 30-1
10 10 In Just My Heels 12.00 15.8 30-1
12 12 Bernar Mosa 15.00 16 30-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Banishing 3.50 1 2-1
8 8 Abadin 4.00 1.2 2-1
2 2 Antares 4.00 1.8 3-1
6 6 Arro Smash 5.00 2.8 5-1
3 3 Money Supply 5.00 3.4 6-1
4 4 Higginson 6.00 3.8 7-1
7 7 Can’t Hush This 12.00 5.8 11-1
1 1 J J’s Joker 12.00 7.4 14-1
5 5 Huntsville 15.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Script 3.50 1 2-1
2 2 No One to Blame 4.00 2.1 4-1
7 7 Play Action Pass 3.00 2.2 4-1
8 8 Whisper Not (GB) 6.00 2.7 5-1
3 3 Freedom’s Way 5.00 3.4 6-1
6 6 Chantry Flats 6.00 3.5 7-1
11 11 Search Engine 2.50 4.2 8-1
1 1 El Oriente (CHI) 20.00 4.4 8-1
10 10 Cowboy Justice (GB) 15.00 4.4 8-1
9 9 Microphone (IRE) 12.00 5.7 11-1
4 4 Marquet Malice 50.00 7.3 14-1
Whisper Not (GB) 12 23-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Stunnem 3.50 1 2-1
9 9 Master of Disguise 4.50 2.4 5-1
7 7 Summer in Aiken 6.00 2.7 5-1
2 2 Remember the Fear 4.00 3.1 6-1
11 11 Capo 6.00 5.5 10-1
4 4 Different Flame 15.00 6.1 11-1
1 1 Setemfree 10.00 6.1 12-1
10 10 Barrel Thief 12.00 6.3 12-1
6 6 Heavy Hitter 12.00 7.2 14-1
12 12 Mr Big Stuff 15.00 7.7 14-1
8 8 Charlie Zulu 30.00 8.7 16-1
5 5 Camilas Warrior 30.00 9.5 18-1
Capo 13 25-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.