Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Friday, November 3, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Devoted to You 4.50 1 2-1
1 1 Randello 2.50 1.1 2-1
6 6 Khozan’s Success 3.50 1.4 3-1
2 2 My Bariley 3.00 1.8 3-1
5 5 Ferryboat 5.00 3.8 7-1
3 3 Eli 8.00 6.6 13-1
7 7 Silvestre 12.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Rate Confirmation 3.00 1 2-1
7 7 Buehler’s Day Off 5.00 1.4 3-1
3 3 Pacific States 4.50 1.8 3-1
2 2 Guadalajara 4.00 2.5 5-1
1 1 Battle Born 8.00 3.6 7-1
5 5 Tamashi 4.50 4.1 8-1
6 6 Gabbysonholiday 6.00 4.8 9-1
8 8 Raven’s Nest 15.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Tiger Dad 2.50 1 2-1
4 4 Soaring Bird 3.00 1.3 2-1
1 1 Senor Jobim 8.00 2.7 5-1
7 7 Wind of Change (BRZ) 2.00 2.8 5-1
5 5 Mine Own Star 15.00 4.4 8-1
8 8 Treasury 10.00 5 9-1
2 2 Tiz of Thee 15.00 5.1 10-1
3 3 Leader of Men 15.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Distinctlypossible 1.40 1 2-1
3 3 Ice Orchid 1.80 2.6 5-1
2 2 Skratch Kat 2.50 2.8 5-1
1 1 Fannie and Freddie 10.00 3.7 7-1
4 4 Jungle Juice (IRE) 15.00 5.7 11-1
5 5 Soul of an Angel 12.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Happy Charger 2.50 1 2-1
4 4 Leaflet 4.00 1.4 3-1
7 7 Take Time to Dream 3.00 3.5 7-1
3 3 Gather 12.00 5.8 11-1
1 1 Liffey 5.00 5.8 11-1
8 8 Rita’s Onthe Beach 15.00 6.1 12-1
2 2 Devil Blue Dress 10.00 7 13-1
9 9 Upswell 12.00 7.9 15-1
6 6 Smashing 15.00 8.5 16-1
10 10 Cause I’m Wild 20.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Stone Silent 3.50 1 2-1
4 4 Little Prankster 3.00 2 4-1
2 2 Sassy Nature 2.50 2.7 5-1
3 3 L J’s Emma 3.50 3.2 6-1
7 7 Redifined 8.00 3.7 7-1
1 1 Mornin’ Boss 20.00 5.2 10-1
6 6 Erna 12.00 7.5 14-1
8 8 Jill Jitterbug 30.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Lite It Up Louie 4.00 1 2-1
6 6 Fun Loving 10.00 3.8 7-1
3 3 West Omaha 2.00 4.2 8-1
10 10 Pula 8.00 4.4 8-1
2 2 Bang Bang Fury 3.50 5 9-1
1 1 Churning Berni 15.00 7.6 14-1
9 9 Pun Intended 10.00 8.2 16-1
7 7 Social Affair 20.00 8.9 17-1
4 4 Viable 12.00 9.6 18-1
8 8 Hey Olivia 12.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Tim Tal 3.50 1 2-1
9 9 A La Carte 4.50 2.9 5-1
13 13 Timely Prospect 12.00 4.2 8-1
2 2 Seeking Unity 6.00 4.4 8-1
12 12 Natural Harbor 10.00 4.8 9-1
11 11 Night Effect 8.00 5.4 10-1
7 7 Lupo’s Legacy 12.00 8.2 16-1
8 8 Funny Uncle 10.00 9 17-1
5 5 Auto Glide 15.00 9.9 19-1
6 6 Seas of Normandy 15.00 11 21-1
10 10 Ignitis 12.00 11.7 22-1
1 1 Work Order 6.00 12 23-1
4 4 Forever Cool 15.00 13 25-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
16 16 Two Item Saver 1.60 1 2-1
6 6 Perhaps Tonight (IRE) 3.50 2.7 5-1
1 1 Howboutdemapples 5.00 3 6-1
15 15 Fragrant 4.00 3.3 6-1
8 8 Excelerina (IRE) 10.00 3.4 6-1
7 7 Fancy Martini 3.00 5.3 10-1
5 5 Navy Goat 10.00 6.4 12-1
2 2 I’m So Sorry 4.00 7 13-1
11 11 Thisnameisokay 8.00 9.2 17-1
4 4 Lady Hideaway 10.00 9.6 18-1
14 14 White Lilacs 12.00 10.2 19-1
10 10 Aaliyah Ezri 15.00 11.1 21-1
12 12 Takntothecleaners 10.00 12.7 24-1
3 3 Zawish 15.00 13.1 25-1
13 13 Present Moment (IRE) 8.00 13.7 26-1
9 9 Sweets Maker 15.00 16 30-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Pigalle 3.00 1 2-1
6 6 Inexorable 2.50 1.2 2-1
5 5 Sant’ Antimo 6.00 1.7 3-1
7 7 Master Game 4.00 4.7 9-1
2 2 Trigger Happy 12.00 5.2 10-1
4 4 Skate to Heaven 6.00 5.4 10-1
10 10 Mucho Mojo 12.00 5.5 10-1
1 1 Long Crow 20.00 7.9 15-1
8 8 Jedrek 15.00 8.1 15-1
3 3 Philharmonic 20.00 10 19-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.