Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, November 4, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Slammin Gold 3.50 1 2-1
5 5 Price Is Truth 2.50 1.2 2-1
2 1 Sorority Prank 6.00 1.3 2-1
1 2 Collected Special 1.60 2.4 4-1
6 6 Savage Spirit 15.00 4 7-1
4 4 Liberty Central 15.00 6.2 12-1
7 7 Malibu Margarita 8.00 7 13-1
1A 8 Apollo Code 1.60 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Datesfreedom 3.00 1 2-1
3 2 Grumps Little Tots 4.50 1.2 2-1
1 3 Jumpster 1.80 SCRATCH
6 6 Lord Gatling 8.00 2.3 4-1
5 5 Hang Tight 6.00 2.5 5-1
2 1 Goldini 3.50 3.5 7-1
1A 7 Dontbelate 1.80 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Luna Loca 3.00 1 2-1
7 7 Angelas Party Girl 3.00 3.6 7-1
2 2 Just a Nyquist 3.50 3.7 7-1
5 5 Simple Sugar 12.00 4.6 9-1
4 4 Accel Rose 1.80 4.7 9-1
3 3 Synonymous 20.00 6.4 12-1
1 1 Sweet as Sugar 15.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Forced Ranking 1.20 1 2-1
4 4 Lafitte’s Fleet 4.50 3.9 7-1
6 6 Just Call Ray 8.00 4.8 9-1
7 7 Leddy 30.00 5.2 10-1
1 1 Bezos 20.00 5.3 10-1
2 2 Register 8.00 5.6 11-1
5 5 Let It Ride 2.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Day Away 20.00 1 2-1
11 11 Just Music 15.00 4.3 8-1
10 10 Z Train (IRE) 5.00 4.6 9-1
6 6 Katherine Thomas 8.00 5.7 11-1
13 13 That’sthefactjack 30.00 8.4 16-1
4 4 Way to Be Marie 10.00 9.6 18-1
12 12 Channel Loop 15.00 10.5 20-1
8 8 Style Points 6.00 10.9 21-1
3 3 Just Jules 8.00 10.9 21-1
2 2 Dynamic Pricing (IRE) 4.00 10.9 21-1
1 1 Hollywood Dream 12.00 12.5 24-1
7 7 Public Assembly 6.00 13.6 26-1
15 15 Philanthropy 20.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Classic Cara 30.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Waskesiu 1.60 SCRATCH
9 9 Nadowessi (IRE) 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Atlantic Beach S.) – Atlantic Beach S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Split Strike 5.00 1 2-1
9 9 Apollo Ten 2.50 1.4 3-1
8 8 Irish Gent (IRE) 3.50 2 4-1
10 10 Ruddy Buddy 50.00 2.7 5-1
7 7 Please Advise 10.00 2.9 6-1
3 3 Jimmythetooth 10.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Woke Up Quick 12.00 3.4 6-1
4 4 Works for Me 8.00 3.9 7-1
1 1 Get Spooled 10.00 4.3 8-1
2 2 Dilger (IRE) 8.00 8.8 17-1
11 11 Perliano 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Sierra Leone 0 0-1
3 3 Hunt Ball 1.60 1 2-1
2 2 Deposition 20.00 1.7 3-1
7 7 Ridgewood Runner 8.00 1.7 3-1
1 1 Change of Command 4.50 3.2 6-1
4 4 Ignite the Light 4.50 4 8-1
5 5 Sierra Leone 3.50 5.3 10-1
6 6 Tuscan Gold 6.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Maker’s Candy 2.50 1 2-1
5 5 Mason Mania 5.00 1.1 2-1
2 2 Thrill of It 3.00 2.8 5-1
1 1 Wild Banker 5.00 4.3 8-1
4 4 Colloquy 4.50 4.7 9-1
3 3 Prince of Pharoahs 6.00 5.5 10-1
7 7 Bossmakinbossmoves 12.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Stewart Manor S.) – Stewart Manor S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Toupie 6.00 1 2-1
9 9 Gram 8.00 2.6 5-1
5 5 Camila T (IRE) 5.00 3.6 7-1
12 12 Ever So Sweet (IRE) 4.00 4.2 8-1
1 1 Marco T. 10.00 4.2 8-1
3 3 She’s Fire 15.00 4.4 8-1
7 7 Independenceavenue 10.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Shop Lifting 8.00 5.6 11-1
4 4 Love to Eat 20.00 6.8 13-1
11 11 Nicky Jolene 30.00 6.9 13-1
10 10 Greavette 30.00 8.1 15-1
8 8 Rosie Jeeks 4.50 8.3 16-1
13 13 Caress 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 He’s a Lucky Guy 3.00 1 2-1
3 3 Joint Resolution 3.50 2.2 4-1
11 11 Prince of Troy 8.00 2.3 4-1
12 12 Atlanta’s Acuna 6.00 2.5 5-1
8 8 Tony O 10.00 3.7 7-1
4 4 Your Mission 8.00 4.3 8-1
2 2 Waflr 20.00 4.8 9-1
10 10 Myles 20.00 6.1 12-1
7 7 Barry the Builder 10.00 6.2 12-1
1 1 Lookin’ to Win 30.00 6.7 13-1
9 9 Bernardino 10.00 7.7 14-1
6 6 Perfect Outcome 30.00 8.9 17-1
13 13 Aula 2.50 SCRATCH
14 14 Chulligan 4.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.