Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, November 4, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Beautiful and Bold 3.50 1 2-1
1 1 What’s to Do 2.00 1.6 3-1
4 4 Miss Tappy Tone 4.00 1.9 4-1
2 2 Steel Racer 2.50 2.2 4-1
6 6 Byzantine 12.00 3.6 7-1
5 5 Fast Gal 6.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Like a Saltshaker 1.00 1 2-1
3 3 Shackleford Strong 5.00 2.7 5-1
2 2 Junior Bug 6.00 3.1 6-1
5 5 Sand Mountain 20.00 3.8 7-1
1 1 All West 2.00 4 7-1
6 6 Spend Benjamins 10.00 4.3 8-1
All West 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Aunt Jo 3.50 1 2-1
4 4 Islandinthestream 4.50 2.9 6-1
8 8 Shesasmalltowngirl 3.00 3.4 6-1
7 7 The Princess Says 2.50 5.3 10-1
3 3 Valiant Praise 6.00 6.7 13-1
6 6 Rockabillie 20.00 7.2 14-1
2 2 Lil Town Sis 8.00 7.6 14-1
5 5 Proud Performer 20.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Zing 5.00 1 2-1
1 1 Love of My Heart 4.00 2.4 5-1
7 7 Pipeline Girl 4.50 2.5 5-1
2 2 Honey Run 5.00 3.7 7-1
4 4 Let’s Be Clear 3.00 4.2 8-1
6 6 Founder’s Day 10.00 4.5 8-1
5 5 Mercy Warren 3.50 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Otis On the Cape 12.00 1 2-1
5 5 Shefflin 10.00 1.1 2-1
4 4 Tasterfor the King 3.00 2.4 5-1
1 1 Pinfire 2.50 3 6-1
8 8 Cuore Sacro 3.50 3 6-1
2 2 Papa Alden 12.00 3.2 6-1
6 6 Be There 5.00 3.8 7-1
3 3 Whiskey and Easy 10.00 5.4 10-1
9 9 Uncle William 20.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Timely Prospect 10.00 1 2-1
6 6 Desert Wolf 2.00 1.4 3-1
2 2 Philharmonic 15.00 3.5 7-1
1 1 Weslan 10.00 4.3 8-1
3 3 Washington’s Union 10.00 5.1 10-1
8 8 Carnivore 5.00 6.1 12-1
4 4 Jr’s Gift 1.80 7.5 14-1
7 7 Harleezy 20.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Left Tackle 4.00 1 2-1
1 1 Give Me a Reason 3.50 1.5 3-1
4 4 Sharp Shot 6.00 1.6 3-1
7 7 Huracan Xander 15.00 3.5 7-1
8 8 McQueen 5.00 4.8 9-1
5 5 Penrod 10.00 7.1 13-1
3 3 Knightsbridge 4.50 7.1 13-1
10 10 Lou’s Legacy 20.00 8.1 15-1
2 2 Poker Run 20.00 9 17-1
9 9 Promissio 6.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Whenthedawnbreaks 4.50 1 2-1
8 8 Sweet Alyssa 30.00 1.4 3-1
12 12 Be My Sunshine 3.50 1.9 4-1
15 15 Empirical View 8.00 3.9 7-1
14 14 Best Performer 3.50 3.9 7-1
11 11 Make the Boys Wink 4.00 3.9 7-1
16 16 Storm Bay 8.00 4.3 8-1
9 9 Lemon Bomb 15.00 5.8 11-1
3 3 Faccia Bella 10.00 6.9 13-1
13 13 Hurry Up Hannah 15.00 7.3 14-1
4 4 Pretty Provocative 12.00 7.5 14-1
7 7 Wings Like Eagles 5.00 8.4 16-1
2 2 Beautifulnavigator (IRE) 6.00 9 17-1
5 5 Work of Fiction 10.00 9.3 17-1
10 10 Spicy Italian 30.00 10.3 20-1
1 1 Lady Commander 30.00 16 30-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Koolhaus 20.00 1 2-1
5 5 Gasoline 6.00 1.5 3-1
10 10 Two Birds 20.00 2 4-1
6 6 Giant Game 2.50 2.9 5-1
8 8 Warrior Johny 3.50 2.9 6-1
2 2 Confidence Game 6.00 3.7 7-1
9 9 Decision Maker 12.00 4.8 9-1
3 3 War Campaign 5.00 5.2 10-1
4 4 Big Blue Line 6.00 7 13-1
1 1 Regular Guy 20.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Bet On Sunshine S.) – Bet On Sunshine S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Tejano Twist 2.50 1 2-1
8 8 Bango 1.20 2.6 5-1
6 6 Sir Alfred James 12.00 4.7 9-1
5 5 Empire of Gold 20.00 5.4 10-1
7 7 Miles Ahead 6.00 6.2 12-1
4 4 Exxel 20.00 8.2 15-1
9 9 Awesome Aaron 20.00 8.4 16-1
2 2 Necker Island 8.00 9 17-1
3 3 Manny Wah 10.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
13 13 Black Diamond 6.00 1 2-1
7 7 Edgartown 2.00 2.1 4-1
4 4 British Sea 5.00 3.6 7-1
5 5 Evening News 12.00 5.8 11-1
16 16 St. Armands Key 2.50 5.9 11-1
6 6 Polar Bear Plunge 10.00 10.1 19-1
10 10 Drobny 8.00 10.6 20-1
2 2 The Look Factor 6.00 10.6 20-1
1 1 Sharon’s Prince 20.00 12.2 23-1
9 9 Surf City 12.00 12.5 24-1
14 14 Who’s the King 12.00 12.6 24-1
11 11 Union Run 20.00 13.2 25-1
8 8 Tiggeroo 12.00 14.5 27-1
12 12 Dashman 6.00 14.6 28-1
15 15 General Issue (FR) 20.00 15.7 30-1
3 3 Moneyshot 20.00 16 30-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.