Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, November 5, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Autism Compassion 8.00 1 2-1
5 5 Cry If I Want To 2.50 1.1 2-1
4 4 Late Nite Lizzie 3.50 2.2 4-1
7 7 Isa Lei 3.00 2.2 4-1
1 1 Golden Lake 6.00 2.7 5-1
3 3 Bump in the Night 6.00 2.7 5-1
2 2 Bella Skye 20.00 3.4 6-1
6 6 Redheadedstranger 15.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Wicked Again 3.50 1 2-1
6 6 Spielman 4.00 2.9 5-1
3 3 Mullion 3.00 3 6-1
1 1 Nyquick 4.00 4.5 9-1
2 2 Chiron 6.00 4.7 9-1
5 5 Bearings 5.00 4.8 9-1
7 7 Artwell 10.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Pigalle 2.50 1 2-1
1 1 Goldcrest 4.00 2.2 4-1
7 7 Chica de Oro 3.50 3.5 7-1
5 5 Jackie’s Love 12.00 6.2 12-1
4 4 Center Stage 3.00 6.8 13-1
2 2 Little Dixie 5.00 6.9 13-1
6 6 Fortune Bound 12.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Stormquist 3.50 1 2-1
1 1 J T’s Imagination 5.00 2 4-1
2 2 Smoothdini 15.00 2.9 6-1
8 8 Family Factor 10.00 3.7 7-1
3 3 Let’s Go Mark 6.00 3.9 7-1
7 7 Ham Sandwich 3.00 5.5 10-1
4 4 Dunphy 6.00 6.8 13-1
9 9 Hey Joe Joe 4.50 7.5 14-1
6 6 Nuevo Amanecer 20.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Mischievousness 4.00 1 2-1
10 10 Silver Rose 1.60 2.4 5-1
4 4 Halina’s Forte 5.00 4.7 9-1
1 1 Grace and Glory 15.00 4.8 9-1
3 3 Round the Town 10.00 5.3 10-1
6 6 Route Sixty Six 15.00 5.9 11-1
2 2 Freeburn 8.00 6 11-1
9 9 Abundant Life 10.00 6.8 13-1
8 8 Bee Branch 20.00 8.2 16-1
7 7 Aztec Empress 12.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Churchtown 15.00 1 2-1
4 4 Big Dreaming 4.00 1.9 4-1
7 7 Ocean Atlantique 3.00 2 4-1
8 8 Winfromwithin 3.50 2.3 4-1
3 3 Hozier 6.00 3.7 7-1
2 2 Skyro 6.00 4 8-1
5 5 Gray’s Fable 12.00 6.9 13-1
1 1 Seize the Night 15.00 7.5 14-1
9 9 Tiz the Bomb 10.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Spycraft 5.00 1 2-1
7 7 Nifty 3.00 2.1 4-1
8 8 Coyote Road 20.00 2.9 5-1
5 5 Friar Laurence 8.00 3.7 7-1
6 6 Appeal Denied 2.50 4.1 8-1
1 1 One Cool Dude 8.00 4.8 9-1
9 9 Stonevicious 8.00 5.9 11-1
4 4 Samurai Prince 6.00 6.8 13-1
3 3 Palace Kitten 12.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Air Combat 2.50 1 2-1
10 10 Attache 8.00 4.9 9-1
2 2 Gold Luck 15.00 6.1 12-1
4 4 Under Oath 4.50 6.4 12-1
9 9 Rider’s Special 8.00 6.4 12-1
3 3 Happy Hour Bobby 30.00 7.6 14-1
11 11 Broken Rib 6.00 8.1 15-1
5 5 Stand for Freedom 12.00 8.2 16-1
6 6 Greys the Boy 3.50 8.8 17-1
8 8 League of Legends 20.00 9.6 18-1
7 7 Call Me Midnight 20.00 11 21-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Baba Voss 3.00 1 2-1
3 3 King Curlin 5.00 1.5 3-1
9 9 Event Detail 15.00 3.9 7-1
5 5 Idratherbeblessed 8.00 4.1 8-1
8 8 Ok Boomer 3.50 4.3 8-1
14 14 Gatlinburg 5.00 4.8 9-1
1 1 Oscar Award 20.00 5.1 10-1
7 7 Karma Director 30.00 5.6 11-1
6 6 Read On 15.00 5.9 11-1
10 10 Miranda Rights 6.00 6.1 12-1
12 12 Tall Boy 5.00 7.4 14-1
2 2 Clear the Air 30.00 7.7 15-1
13 13 Sherlock’s Jewel 20.00 9.2 17-1
16 16 Midnight Rising 12.00 9.5 18-1
11 11 Stonemont Reunion 30.00 10.5 20-1
15 15 El Ahijado 30.00 12.7 24-1
Tall Boy 17 32-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.