Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Wednesday, November 8, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Krickle 3.50 1 2-1
2 2 Almond Fudge 3.00 1.4 3-1
3 3 Intermittent Fast 2.00 2.4 5-1
4 4 Ready for Trouble 4.50 3.8 7-1
7 7 Little Sass 10.00 6.6 12-1
6 6 Stealthespotlight 10.00 6.8 13-1
1 1 Mila Junes 8.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Veracruzin 3.50 1 2-1
6 6 Noble Gentleman 4.00 1.1 2-1
4 4 Tizzy Indy 5.00 1.5 3-1
7 7 Sting Music 4.50 3.3 6-1
3 3 Sharpenyourfaith 5.00 4.5 9-1
2 2 Chaps Knight 10.00 4.5 9-1
5 5 Richiesderbystrike 6.00 4.7 9-1
8 8 Kykeon 8.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Floris 4.00 1 2-1
2 2 Ziggzappa 2.00 1.1 2-1
6 6 Catherine Blaze 2.50 1.3 2-1
5 5 Prana 3.00 1.5 3-1
1 1 In a Peach 8.00 3.6 7-1
3 3 Sophisticated 12.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Malibu Smart 8.00 1 2-1
4 4 Tribest (ARG) 2.50 1 2-1
7 7 Miss Analyzed 4.00 1.3 2-1
8 8 Salsalita Verde 3.50 2.9 5-1
3 3 Domina 8.00 3.6 7-1
1 1 Imperator Furiosa 4.50 3.7 7-1
6 6 Lady Free Will 15.00 3.9 7-1
9 9 Jayla 20.00 4.6 9-1
5 5 Sha Girl 15.00 5.5 10-1
Imperator Furiosa 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Conversing 2.00 1 2-1
16 16 Tiz Wicked Strong 4.00 1.5 3-1
6 6 Utah Beach 2.50 1.6 3-1
17 17 Ice Time 3.00 3.3 6-1
18 18 Game Keeper 6.00 3.5 7-1
9 9 Presider 15.00 7.3 14-1
15 15 Fayette Spirit 8.00 7.7 15-1
1 1 Proton Spirit 20.00 10.2 19-1
12 12 Earl of Dassel 20.00 11.2 21-1
10 10 Archie the Giza 10.00 11.5 22-1
3 3 Sagittarius 5.00 14 26-1
5 5 Pilkington 15.00 15.6 29-1
2 2 Orbi One 15.00 16.1 30-1
4 4 Crossing 30.00 16.3 31-1
14 14 Missionaire 10.00 16.4 31-1
7 7 As One Does 15.00 16.7 32-1
8 8 Whitewalker 12.00 17.7 33-1
13 13 Ode to Gershwin 30.00 18 34-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Parody 2.50 1 2-1
1 1 Royal Spa 4.00 1 2-1
4 4 Miss Arlington 3.00 2 4-1
2 2 Effortlesslyelgant 1.80 5 9-1
3 3 Charriere 5.00 5.1 10-1
6 6 Lover Girl 15.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Promise of Hope 3.50 1 2-1
1 1 Frankel Baby 12.00 1.3 2-1
9 9 Arden’s Assault 12.00 2.6 5-1
2 2 Sparkle of Hope 3.00 3.3 6-1
5 5 Vow 2.50 3.8 7-1
7 7 Miss Foxann 20.00 5.5 10-1
4 4 Margoinabubblebath 12.00 5.8 11-1
10 10 Moon Magic Chrissy 10.00 6.1 12-1
11 11 Music Festival 8.00 6.2 12-1
3 3 Roc’s Princess 20.00 7.3 14-1
8 8 Punchy Girl 20.00 11 21-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
16 16 Cant Be Doin That 4.00 1 2-1
4 4 Safe Trip Home 3.00 1.8 3-1
15 15 St. Elmo 3.00 2 4-1
2 2 Sbagliato 4.00 2.6 5-1
1 1 Midnight Rising 5.00 3.7 7-1
9 9 Sherlock’s Jewel 12.00 5.2 10-1
6 6 Gatlinburg 3.50 5.9 11-1
12 12 Write Off Jerry 15.00 6.1 12-1
14 14 The Prince’s Spur 2.50 8.8 17-1
3 3 Tepeu 12.00 9 17-1
13 13 Leave It to Kitten 10.00 9 17-1
10 10 Madison Luvs Duke 12.00 9.7 18-1
8 8 Cairo’s Ghost 10.00 12.1 23-1
7 7 El Ahijado 30.00 13 25-1
5 5 Roja Redemption 20.00 14 26-1
11 11 Stroke of Midnight 30.00 16 30-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Icy Stare Down 6.00 1 2-1
5 5 Off the Charts 6.00 2.8 5-1
8 8 Forever Home 3.50 3 6-1
11 11 Sacred Beauty 10.00 3.9 7-1
9 9 Supertaleofhoudini 10.00 5.2 10-1
12 12 Rock the Nile 5.00 6.8 13-1
10 10 Lunar Ice 4.50 7.3 14-1
1 1 Stormy Empire 6.00 7.4 14-1
13 13 Gran Chemin 15.00 8.1 15-1
3 3 Lookin Royal 12.00 8.3 16-1
2 2 L. A. Star 20.00 9.5 18-1
6 6 Queen Louise 20.00 9.8 19-1
4 4 High Speed 20.00 13 25-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.