Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, November 9, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Cashmeup 1.60 1 2-1
5 5 Mo Moves 3.50 1.6 3-1
4 4 Gilded Craken 3.00 1.7 3-1
1 1 Photo Op 10.00 2.1 4-1
6 6 Pearse 3.50 3 6-1
3 3 Le Coop 12.00 4.1 8-1
Cashmeup 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Sonador 5.00 1 2-1
6 6 Showgirl Lynne B 2.00 1.4 3-1
2 2 Yolanda Who 3.00 3.3 6-1
7 7 Dogwoodsmilliejane 12.00 4.3 8-1
3 3 Ship It 3.50 4.7 9-1
1 1 Buckeye Rose 5.00 6.8 13-1
5 5 Beach Kitten 15.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Cousin Larry 6.00 1 2-1
7 7 Kattath 4.50 2.2 4-1
5 5 Huge Bigly 2.00 2.4 5-1
6 6 Boitano 10.00 2.7 5-1
2 2 Dream Keeper 6.00 4.1 8-1
4 4 Shortlist 5.00 6.4 12-1
1 1 Code Runner 4.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Study Committee 6.00 1 2-1
1 1 Lundberg 2.50 1.1 2-1
3 3 Gucci Boy 3.50 1.9 4-1
5 5 Smoke Wagon 5.00 2.4 4-1
2 2 Cloud Without Rein 12.00 3.2 6-1
4 4 Passing Judgment 8.00 6.5 12-1
7 7 City of Love 6.00 7.1 13-1
8 8 Officer Quigley 12.00 8.5 16-1
6 6 Hess 12.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Mounsieur Coco 4.00 1 2-1
7 7 Gaslight Dancer 2.00 1.2 2-1
5 5 Private Creed 2.50 1.8 3-1
8 8 Ryvit 1.20 1.8 3-1
2 2 Chiseler 5.00 2 4-1
1 1 Money Run 20.00 2.1 4-1
6 6 Son of a Birch 12.00 2.9 5-1
3 3 Bal a Kazoo 5.00 3.4 6-1
Private Creed 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Salming 5.00 1 2-1
11 11 Midnight Stormy 20.00 3.6 7-1
10 10 Bear River 1.80 3.9 7-1
6 6 Formal Affair 10.00 4.5 8-1
5 5 El Matador 8.00 5.4 10-1
1 1 Mikealicious 6.00 5.8 11-1
9 9 King Anthony 10.00 9.4 18-1
8 8 Heart Headed 10.00 9.9 19-1
3 3 Wicked Melody 12.00 10 19-1
4 4 General Issue (FR) 20.00 11 21-1
2 2 Broadway Red 30.00 11.3 21-1
12 12 Charge the Castle 15.00 12 23-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Solidify 5.00 1 2-1
7 7 Lucky Boss 5.00 3.1 6-1
6 6 Pure Panic 10.00 3.6 7-1
3 3 Tee Burns 3.50 4.3 8-1
5 5 Blue Kentucky 4.50 5.2 10-1
2 2 W W Hotshot 6.00 6 11-1
4 4 Lykan 20.00 6.2 12-1
9 9 Tilted Towers 4.00 6.7 13-1
8 8 Faithful Ruler 15.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Market Street 12.00 1 2-1
1 1 First World War 4.00 2.3 4-1
8 8 Footprint 10.00 2.9 6-1
6 6 Mozlzil 6.00 4.4 8-1
3 3 Khanate 8.00 4.7 9-1
5 5 Catching Freedom 2.50 4.8 9-1
2 2 Lagynos 8.00 5.3 10-1
10 10 Parchment Party 4.00 5.7 11-1
7 7 Woodcourt 15.00 7.8 15-1
4 4 Barksdale 30.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Spartan Queen 3.00 1 2-1
8 8 Lady Claypoole (IRE) 2.50 1.5 3-1
7 7 English Treasure 8.00 1.5 3-1
2 2 Silent Revenge 20.00 2.1 4-1
11 11 Call Me Toni 20.00 3.3 6-1
9 9 Noble Bernadette 15.00 3.8 7-1
1 1 King’s Secret (GB) 3.50 3.8 7-1
6 6 Laserjet 20.00 4.6 9-1
3 3 Bric a Brac 15.00 5.3 10-1
10 10 Milan Mischief 15.00 5.8 11-1
4 4 Queen Rhaenyra 15.00 6 11-1
Queen Rhaenyra 12 23-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.