Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Friday, November 10, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Raymond 2.50 1 2-1
6 6 Scooteranddabigman 6.00 1.8 3-1
3 3 Aspen Club 3.50 3.7 7-1
2 2 Fastbyte 8.00 5.2 10-1
1 1 Longshadow 3.00 5.6 11-1
7 7 Ready Pursuit 12.00 6.7 13-1
5 5 Ashaab 5.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 In a Jam 4.50 1 2-1
12 12 Silent Heart 6.00 1.6 3-1
5 5 Geno’s Myth 12.00 2.4 5-1
8 8 Norwich 4.00 4.9 9-1
10 10 Brennan’s Honor 8.00 5.4 10-1
3 3 Irish Ransom 10.00 6.6 13-1
9 9 Crash the Gate 8.00 7 13-1
15 15 Baraye 4.00 7.8 15-1
11 11 Trouble’s Roaring 5.00 9.4 18-1
1 1 Trap Line 12.00 10.3 20-1
7 7 Austin Strong 15.00 11.2 21-1
2 2 Trust Issues 15.00 12.1 23-1
13 13 Famous Final Scene 15.00 14.4 27-1
16 16 Meet You Now 15.00 14.4 27-1
14 14 Henro 12.00 14.9 28-1
4 4 Camaro Z 20.00 16 30-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Heartbreaker 2.00 1 2-1
4 4 Digital 3.50 1.5 3-1
5 5 Expensive Cut 6.00 2.8 5-1
1 1 He’s Got This 2.50 3.5 7-1
7 7 Bird King 8.00 4.6 9-1
3 3 Land Mark Deal 12.00 5.4 10-1
6 6 W W Crazy 15.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Kid’s Last Laugh 3.00 1 2-1
2 2 Musical Prayer 3.50 1.1 2-1
1 1 Tapitara 10.00 2.8 5-1
7 7 Port Townsend 4.00 3.3 6-1
3 3 Marmalade Skye 10.00 3.5 7-1
6 6 Speedy Traveler 5.00 4.6 9-1
5 5 Tenenbaum 5.00 5.5 10-1
4 4 A Dollar a Day 12.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 One Giant Leap 3.00 1 2-1
4 4 Backside Buzz 3.50 1.3 2-1
2 2 Hocus 15.00 1.4 3-1
3 3 Goodasiwonswas 10.00 1.6 3-1
8 8 Forrest City 2.50 2 4-1
1 1 Emperador 15.00 2.7 5-1
6 6 Own the Field 6.00 3.1 6-1
7 7 Captain Jack 15.00 3.4 6-1
Emperador 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Bourbon Breeze 2.00 1 2-1
2 2 Ice Cold 3.00 1.1 2-1
4 4 Cozee Rags 6.00 1.3 2-1
7 7 Thorpedo Anna 2.50 1.7 3-1
3 3 Peignoir 5.00 2.6 5-1
1 1 Umeboshi 12.00 3.9 7-1
6 6 Miss Tena Marie 20.00 3.9 7-1
Thorpedo Anna 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
12 12 Roman Centurian 4.00 1 2-1
10 10 Creative Minister 1.60 1.1 2-1
9 9 Catch That Party 4.00 3.9 7-1
11 11 Mr. Big News 5.00 4.1 8-1
1 1 Corelli 3.50 4.9 9-1
8 8 Temple 3.00 4.9 9-1
6 6 O P Firecracker 8.00 5.2 10-1
7 7 Tough Tickets 8.00 5.9 11-1
5 5 Fowler Blue 10.00 6.8 13-1
4 4 Bear Oak 4.00 7 13-1
2 2 February Son 15.00 8.3 16-1
3 3 Wind Twist 30.00 12 23-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Ro Town 20.00 1 2-1
5 5 Zeitlos 4.00 2.7 5-1
10 10 Three Polks 8.00 3 6-1
11 11 The Great Maybe 6.00 3.5 7-1
4 4 Bandita 3.00 3.6 7-1
12 12 Mariah’s Appeal 6.00 4.4 8-1
7 7 Pumpkin Scone 8.00 4.6 9-1
3 3 Pat’schromecompass 30.00 6.6 12-1
8 8 Socially Selective 5.00 6.9 13-1
13 13 Mighty Madison 12.00 8.2 15-1
1 1 Souper Explosive 15.00 8.6 16-1
6 6 Sweet Curalina 30.00 11.1 21-1
2 2 Ervadean 20.00 13 25-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Honed 4.00 1 2-1
5 5 Princely 4.50 1.5 3-1
9 9 Single Ruler 3.50 1.9 4-1
2 2 Bright Spark 8.00 2.4 5-1
6 6 Boone’s Path 15.00 2.8 5-1
10 10 Dance Some Mo 5.00 3 6-1
1 1 Star Nation 30.00 3.9 7-1
4 4 Glen Airy 12.00 4.2 8-1
11 11 Gamer 6.00 4.4 8-1
7 7 Winston Wolf 20.00 5.1 10-1
8 8 Iconicus 30.00 5.1 10-1
Iconicus 12 23-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.