Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, November 11, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Mad Banker 3.50 1 2-1
4 4 Running Lucky 6.00 2 4-1
7 7 Star Sequence 3.00 3.7 7-1
8 8 A Knight’s Courage 4.50 3.8 7-1
5 5 The Delaware Boyz 4.50 4.1 8-1
1 1 Swept 5.00 5 9-1
3 3 Charlie Tough 15.00 5.8 11-1
2 2 Braca 15.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Gut Feeling 4.50 1 2-1
5 5 Inspeightoftrainer 8.00 1.6 3-1
2 2 Iron Works 0.50 1.7 3-1
8 8 Devil’s Cay 10.00 3 6-1
4 4 Rock the Weekend 20.00 4.5 8-1
6 6 Achilles Heel 10.00 4.8 9-1
7 7 Strong Light 15.00 5.2 10-1
1 1 Prince of Joy 50.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Authorize 3.00 1 2-1
2 2 Lucency 2.50 3.2 6-1
1 1 Burton Way 5.00 3.7 7-1
6 6 Ringside 3.50 3.8 7-1
4 4 Escalation Clause 4.00 5.5 10-1
7 7 Modern Era 15.00 6 11-1
3 3 Billy Price 10.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Handsome Cat 6.00 1 2-1
4 4 Never Early 4.00 2.6 5-1
2 2 Prince James 2.50 2.8 5-1
9 9 F F Rocket 5.00 4.5 8-1
3 3 Lohengrin Two 6.00 4.6 9-1
5 5 Winning Drive 8.00 7.4 14-1
8 8 Gandy Dancing 12.00 7.8 15-1
6 6 Striking Speed 12.00 8.6 16-1
7 7 Rally Squirrel 15.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Cugino 0 0-1
11 11 Triple Espresso 2.00 1 2-1
2 2 Enlighten 2.50 2.3 4-1
6 6 Unique Insight 4.50 2.7 5-1
3 3 Bounteous 10.00 4.1 8-1
10 10 Thornbury 12.00 4.9 9-1
4 4 Four Top 6.00 5 9-1
5 5 Hamilton’s Way 10.00 5.2 10-1
8 8 Cugino 5.00 7.1 13-1
9 9 Urge to Merge (IRE) 8.00 8.5 16-1
1 1 Won Team 15.00 8.6 16-1
14 14 Bold Ambition 4.00 SCRATCH
16 16 The Hero Code 8.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Otello 6.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Pet Mat 15.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Dangerous Driver 30.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Get Ready to Rock 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Pebbles S.) – Pebbles S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Sacred Wish 2.50 1 2-1
1 1 Implicated 12.00 1.5 3-1
5 5 Silver Skillet 5.00 1.8 3-1
7 7 Startup Mentality (IRE) 4.00 2.5 5-1
4 4 Precious Avary 15.00 3.6 7-1
8 8 Rhiannon 2.00 3.6 7-1
3 3 On the Shortlist 30.00 3.8 7-1
2 2 Plentitude 10.00 4.3 8-1
9 9 Stephanie’s Charm 30.00 5.8 11-1
10 10 Just Katherine 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Utamaro 4.50 1 2-1
9 9 Happy Bob 2.00 2.4 4-1
4 4 Kingdom 5.00 2.6 5-1
3 3 South Street 6.00 2.9 5-1
1 1 Inspector 6.00 3.7 7-1
5 5 Break the Ice 10.00 6 11-1
8 8 Uncle Water Flow 8.00 7.1 13-1
7 7 Mama Banned Me 20.00 8.6 16-1
2 2 Scotto 20.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 American Monarch 3.50 1 2-1
7 8 Victorious Wave 4.50 3.6 7-1
1 1 Divine Armor 2.50 4 7-1
2 2 Twenty Four Mamba 10.00 4.5 8-1
5 5 Seven Nation Army 15.00 4.7 9-1
3 3 Jemography 10.00 4.7 9-1
1A 6 Colonel Bowman 2.50 SCRATCH
6 7 My Harbors Dream 2.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Red Smith S.) – Red Smith S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Verstappen 8.00 1 2-1
5 5 Limited Liability 6.00 3.1 6-1
12 12 Master Piece (CHI) 8.00 3.4 7-1
8 8 Soldier Rising (GB) 3.00 4 8-1
1 1 Lost Ark 15.00 4.1 8-1
6 6 Nineeleventurbo 6.00 4.2 8-1
4 4 Cross Border 5.00 4.3 8-1
15 15 Daunt 15.00 7.7 14-1
2 2 So High (GB) 20.00 8.1 15-1
7 7 Marwad (GB) 10.00 8.4 16-1
11 11 Tide of the Sea 50.00 9.9 19-1
14 14 Shawdyshawdyshawdy 30.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Red Run 12.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Costa Terra 3.50 SCRATCH
3 3 Main Event 15.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Classic Catch 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Veterans Beach 6.00 1 2-1
7 7 Icy Flavor 1.80 1 2-1
2 2 Kreesa 6.00 1.4 3-1
6 6 Russi 3.50 3.2 6-1
10 10 Dreampoint 12.00 4.3 8-1
8 8 Image of Quality 12.00 4.6 9-1
3 3 Thank You Jon 10.00 6.8 13-1
1 1 He’s Got It 20.00 6.8 13-1
5 5 Blame It On Daddy 10.00 7.7 15-1
4 4 The Cobbler 30.00 9.7 18-1
12 12 Heroneandonly 30.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Red D G P 5.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Ortus 2.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Dr. Settle’s Dream 4.50 SCRATCH
11 11 Shortsinthewinter 20.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.